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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 

Journal Article
Monetary policy prospects

In this article Evan Koenig looks at measures of the Federal Reserves policy stance and discusses why short-term interest rates will almost certainly have to increase at some point. The article also examines the historical relationship between Federal Reserve policy, inflation and resource slack for insights on future rate changes. Koenig concludes that a wide range of policy outcomes are plausible over the next two years, depending on the strength of the recovery, the economys growth potential, and the sustainable unemployment ratevariables that economists cant, unfortunately, estimate with ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review

Report
Financial Frictions Conference: Reviews Paths to Monetary Policy Objectives

The Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute hosted ?Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy in an Open Economy,? March 16?17, in Dallas. The conference brought together theoretical and empirical researchers to examine how financial frictions?often using models in which company balance sheets appear prominently?affect monetary policy in an open economy.
Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute

Working Paper
The cyclicality of (bilateral) capital inflows and outflows

Recent research has shown that gross capital inflows and outflows are positively correlated and highly procyclical. This poses a puzzle since most theory predicts that capital inflows and outflows should be negatively correlated, and while capital inflows should be procyclical, capital outflows should be countercyclical. This previous work has examined the behavior of aggregate capital inflows and outflows (capital flows between a country and the rest of the world). This paper shows that bilateral capital inflows and outflows (flows between a pair of countries) are also positively correlated ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 247

Conference Paper
Interstate obstacles to commerce

Proceedings

Journal Article
Regional update

Southwest Economy , Issue Sep , Pages 19

Discussion Paper
Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?

This paper looks at the term-structure literature to identify early signs predicting recessionary patterns in the U.S. and other developed economies. Based on the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) recession dates, we define the probability of recession as a function of the traditional yield spread, plus a forward-looking measure of growth expectations, namely the output gap growth spread. For other countries, we extend the model and make it additionally dependent on the probability of recession in the U.S. Our results indicate that most ...
Staff Papers , Issue Apr

Working Paper
Protecting social interest in free invention

Working Papers , Paper 9405

Working Paper
Banking reform

Working Papers , Paper 9004

Working Paper
The effects of monetary policy in a model with reserve requirements

Working Papers , Paper 9415

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