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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 

Working Paper
Indeterminacy and forecastability

Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation. This conversely implies that forecastability is higher in the preceding era, when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We offer an explanation for this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium indeterminacy in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. First, we analytically show that a model under indeterminacy exhibits richer dynamics that can improve forecastability. Then, using a prototypical New Keynesian model, we numerically demonstrate that indeterminacy due to passive ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 91

Working Paper
Variable Selection and Forecasting in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Structural Breaks

This paper is concerned with the problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows and exponential down-weighting. However, these studies start with a given model specification and do not consider the problem of variable selection, which is complicated by time variations in the effects of signal variables. In this study we investigate whether or not we should use weighted observations at the variable selection stage in the presence of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 394

Journal Article
Upstream petroleum employment in the current drilling cycle

Houston Business , Issue Apr

Conference Paper
The benefits of free trade


Journal Article
Noteworthy: Agriculture, population growth, venture capital

?The regional economy remains in expansion, buoyed in part by strong energy activity.?
Southwest Economy , Issue Q1 , Pages 14

Excerpts from \"Comments on the current financial crisis\"

Remarks before the Ninth Annual R.I.S.E. (Redefining Investment Strategy Education) Forum Dayton, Ohio, March 26, 2009 ; "Here is a take-home quote from Charles Mackay's classic tome "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds", written in 1841: 'Men think in herds...[and] they go mad in herds.' Just as the astute investor should have resisted joining the thundering herd's mad euphoria, I suggest you resist joining in the current stampede of despair."
Speeches and Essays , Paper 13

Working Paper
On Fed watching and central bank transparency in an overlapping generations model

I develop a simple general equilibrium model that integrates fed watching with central bank opaqueness. With the intergenerational conflict, opaqueness can solve a Ramsey problem. With monetary uncertainty as the only source of randomness, transparency is the welfare maximizing policy. With other sources of variation, transparency is costly in the sense that it limits the central bank?s response to intrinsic shocks. In short, opaqueness is the veil that permits the central bank freedom to choose money growth in a way to raise welfare.
Working Papers , Paper 0002

Working Paper
Offshoring and volatility: more evidence from Mexico's maquiladora industry

In recent papers, Bergin, Feenstra, and Hanson (2007 and 2009, hereafter BFH) analyze the impact that offshoring has in employment and output volatility, particularly on the Mexican maquiladora industry. Their empirical results indicate that employment and output in the offshoring manufacturing plants in Mexico are more volatile than their counterparts in the U.S. Such empirical results suggest that the maquiladora industry (offshoring) can help the U.S. industrial sector to better absorb shocks. In this paper, I expand BFH's empirical analysis in different directions. The empirical results I ...
Working Papers , Paper 1106

Working Paper
The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper examines the effects of the U.S. shale oil boom in a two-country DSGE model where countries produce crude oil, refined oil products, and a non-oil good. The model incorporates different types of crude oil that are imperfect substitutes for each other as inputs into the refining sector. The model is calibrated to match oil market and macroeconomic data for the U.S. and the rest of the world (ROW). We investigate the implications of a significant increase in U.S. light crude oil production similar to the shale oil boom. Consistent with the data, our model predicts that light oil ...
Working Papers , Paper 1708

Is Wage Growth Higher than We Think?

There is always widespread interest in the degree to which the U.S. labor market generates higher pay for workers. A standard measure of wage growth suggests that this expansion is not improving the standard of living of workers, but our analysis reveals that actual wage growth is understated.
Dallas Fed Economics




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