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Working Paper
Public policy in support of small business: the American experience
Craig, Ben R.; Jackson, William E.; Thompson, James B. (2011)
Information problems in small enterprise credit markets can result in a market equilibrium characterized by credit rationing. These information problems are potentially more severe during sharp economic downturns such as the recent Great Recession. Government interventions to alleviate credit constraints on small firms need to be designed to correct the specific market failure resulting in socially suboptimal credit flows. We argue that Small Business Administration loan guarantees are a potentially appropriate intervention and provide a review of empirical research that supports our ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1116

Working Paper
Search, money and capital: a neoclassical dichotomy
Aruoba, S. Boragan; Wright, Randall (2002)
Recent work has reduced the gap between search-based monetary theory and mainstream macroeconomics by incorporating into the search model some centralized markets as well as some decentralized markets where money is essential. This paper takes a further step towards this integration by introducing labor, capital and neoclassical firms. The resulting framework nests the search-theoretic monetary model and a standard neoclassical growth model as special cases. Perhaps surprisingly, it also exhibits a dichotomy: one can determine the equilibrium path for the value of money independently of the ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0208

Working Paper
Bank performance and regional economic growth: evidence of a regional credit channel
Samolyk, Katherine A. (1992)
This paper examines the relationship between bank performance and economic growth at the state level. We develop a regional credit view to explain how, due to information costs, regional banking conditions can influence local economic activity by affecting a region's ability to fund local investments. The model suggests that local banking-sector problems may constrain economic activity in financially distressed regions, whereas no such link need be evident in financially sound regions. We test the empirical relevance of this credit view for the 1983-1990 period using state-level data and find ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9204

Working Paper
Debt, collateral, and U.S. manufacturing investment: 1954-1980
Osterberg, William P. (1992)
I perform an empirical analysis of Euler equations for the firm's choices of capital, labor, hours, and debt. Financial structure has real effects , since taxes favor debt. However, the cost of debt increases with the debt-to-collateral ratio, and capital is part of collateral. The data, for U.S. manufacturing investment from 1954 to 1980, show that the debt-to-collateral ratio moves opposite to the direction suggested by tax rates. However, excluding the Euler equation for debt implies the correct sign for the relation between investment and the debt-to-collateral ratio. I also find ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9210

Working Paper
Friends do let friends buy stocks actively
Heimer, Rawley (2013)
This research is the first to provide empirical evidence that social interaction is more prevalent amongst active rather than passive investors. While previous empirical work, spearheaded by Hong, Kubik, and Stein (2004), shows that proxies for sociability are related to participation in asset markets, the literature is unable to distinguish between the types of participants because of data limitations. I address this shortcoming by using data from the Consumer Expenditure Quarterly Interview Survey on individual holdings, and buying and selling of financial assets as well as expenditure ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1314

Working Paper
Inflation and the personal tax code: assessing indexation
Altig, David E.; Carlstrom, Charles T. (1990)
A reexamination of the potential costs of anticipated inflation in view of the inflation indexing system established during the 1980s.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9006

Working Paper
The effect of subordinated debt and surety bonds on banks' cost of capital and on the value of federal deposit insurance
Thomson, James B.; Osterberg, William P. (1990)
This paper examines two proposals to correct the risk-taking incentives embedded in the current deposit insurance system and to provide protection to the deposit insurance fund. the first would require banks to issue subordinated debt, and the second would require bank stockholders to post surety bonds. We use the cash-flow version of the Capital Asset Pricing Model to show how each proposal would affect the values and rates of return on uninsured deposits and equity. We then indicate the impact that each proposal would have on the values of the Federal Deposit insurance Corporation claim and ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9012

Working Paper
Forecasts from Reduced-form Models under the Zero-Lower-Bound Constraint
Pasaogullari, Mehmet (2015-08-05)
In this paper, I consider forecasting from a reduced-form VAR under the zero lower bound (ZLB) for the short-term nominal interest rate. I develop a method that a) computes the exact moments for the first n + 1 periods when n previous periods are tracked and b) approximates moments for the periods beyond n + 1 period using techniques for truncated normal distributions and approximations a la Kim (1994). I show that the algorithm produces satisfactory results for VAR systems with moderate to high persistence even when only one previous period is tracked. For very persistent VAR systems, ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1512

Working Paper
Option prices, exchange market intervention, and the higher moment expectations channel: a user’s guide
Humpage, Owen F.; Higgins, Patrick C.; Melick, William R.; Galati, Gabriele (2006)
A vast literature on the effects of sterilized intervention by the monetary authorities in the foreign exchange markets concludes that intervention systematically moves the spot exchange rate only if it is publicly announced, coordinated across countries, and consistent with the underlying stance of fiscal and monetary policy. Over the past fifteen years, researchers have also attempted to determine if intervention has any effects on the dispersion and directionality of market views concerning the future exchange rate. These studies usually focus on the variance around the expected future ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0618

Working Paper
Assessing the Evidence on Neighborhood Effects from Moving to Opportunity
Aliprantis, Dionissi (2015-03-25)
The Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment randomly assigned housing vouchers that could be used in low-poverty neighborhoods. Consistent with the literature, I find that receiving an MTO voucher had no effect on outcomes like earnings, employment, and test scores. However, after studying the assumptions identifying neighborhood effects with MTO data, this paper reaches a very different interpretation of these results than found in the literature. I first specify a model in which the absence of effects from the MTO program implies an absence of neighborhood effects. I present theory and ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1506

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