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Working Paper
Reforming the US Long-Term Care Insurance Market
Braun, R. Anton; Kopecky, Karen A. (2024-08-14)
Nursing home risk is significant and costly. Yet, most Americans pay for long-term care (LTC) expenses out-of-pocket. This chapter examines reforms to both public and private LTCI provision using a structural model of the US LTCI market. Three policies are considered: universal public LTCI, no public LTCI coverage, and a policy that exempts asset holdings from the public insurance asset test on a dollar-for-dollar basis with private LTCI coverage. We find that this third reform enhances social welfare and creates a vibrant private LTCI market while preserving the safety net provided by public ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-17

Working Paper
How Do Lead Banks Use Their Private Information about Loan Quality in the Syndicated Loan Market?
Koepke, Matthew; Berger, Allen N.; Balasubramanyan, Lakshmi (2017-11-29)
We formulate and test two opposing hypotheses about how lead banks in the syndicated loan market use private information about loan quality, the Signaling Hypothesis and Sophisticated Syndicate Hypothesis. We use Shared National Credit (SNC) internal loan ratings made comparable using concordance tables to measure private information. We find favorable private information is associated with higher lead bank loan retention and lower interest rate spreads for pure term loans, ceteris paribus, supporting the Signaling Hypothesis. Neither hypothesis dominates for pure revolvers. The data ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-16R2

Working Paper
Labor Supply Shocks, Labor Force Entry, and Monetary Policy
Kurozumi, Takushi; Van Zandweghe, Willem (2022-05-24)
Should monetary policy offset the effects of labor supply shocks on inflation and the output gap? Canonical New Keynesian models answer yes. Motivated by weak labor force participation during the pandemic, we reexamine the question by introducing labor force entry and exit in an otherwise canonical model with sticky prices and wages. The entry decision generates an employment channel of monetary policy, and a labor supply shock to the value of nonparticipation in the labor market induces a policy trade-off between stabilization of the employment gap and wage growth. For an adverse labor ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-17

Working Paper
Federal Reserve Structure, Economic Ideas, and Monetary and Financial Policy
Prescott, Edward Simpson; Bordo, Michael D. (2019-06-21)
The decentralized structure of the Federal Reserve System is evaluated as a mechanism for generating and processing new ideas on monetary and financial policy. The role of the Reserve Banks starting in the 1960s is emphasized. The introduction of monetarism in the 1960s, rational expectations in the 1970s, credibility in the 1980s, transparency, and other monetary policy ideas by Reserve Banks into the Federal Reserve System is documented. Contributions by Reserve Banks to policy on bank structure, bank regulation, and lender of last resort are also discussed. We argue that the Reserve Banks ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-13

Working Paper
Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP
Galvão, Ana B.; Mitchell, James (2021-12-23)
Economic statistics are commonly published without any explicit indication of their uncertainty. To assess if and how the UK public interprets and understands data uncertainty, we conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment. A control group is presented with the headline point estimate of GDP, as emphasized by the statistical office. Treatment groups are then presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understands that uncertainty is inherent in official GDP numbers. But communicating ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-28

Working Paper
Effects of Wildfire Destruction on Migration, Consumer Credit, and Financial Distress
McConnell, Kathryn; Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack; Whitaker, Stephan; Curtis, Katherine; Price, Kobie; St. Denis, Lise; Balch, Jennifer (2021-12-27)
The scale of wildfire destruction has grown exponentially in recent years, destroying nearly 25,000 buildings in the United States during 2018 alone. However, there is still limited research exploring how wildfires affect migration patterns and household finances. In this study, we evaluate the effects of wildfire destruction on in-migration and out-migration probability at the Census tract level in the United States from 1999 to 2018. We then shift to the individual level and examine changes in homeownership, consumer credit usage, and financial distress among people whose neighborhood ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-29

Working Paper
Can Landlords Be Paid to Stop Avoiding Voucher Tenants?
Martin, Hal; Phillips, David; Aliprantis, Dionissi (2019-01-18)
Despite being eligible for use in any neighborhood, housing choice vouchers tend to be redeemed in low-opportunity neighborhoods. This paper investigates whether landlord behavior contributes to this outcome by studying the recent expansion of neighborhood-based voucher limits in Washington, DC. We conduct two waves of a correspondence experiment: one before and one after the expansion. Landlords heavily penalize tenants who indicate a desire to pay by voucher. The voucher penalty is larger in high-rent neighborhoods, pushing voucher tenants to low-rent neighborhoods. We find no evidence that ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-02

Working Paper
Causal Impact of Risk Oversight Functions on Bank Risk: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Daniel, Naveen; Naveen, Lalitha; Haubrich, Joseph G.; Balasubramanyan, Lakshmi (2019-01-10)
Our goal is to document the causal impact of having a board-level risk committee (RC) and a management-level executive designated as chief risk officer (CRO) on bank risk. The Dodd Frank Act requires bank holding companies with over $10 billion of assets to have an RC, while those with over $50 billion of assets are additionally required to have a CRO to oversee risk management. The innovation that allows us to document a causal impact is our research design. First, we use the passage of the Dodd Frank Act as a natural experiment that forced noncompliant firms to adopt an RC and appoint a ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-01

Working Paper
Wealth Effects, Price Markups, and the Neo-Fisherian Hypothesis
Hajdini, Ina; Airaudo, Marco (2021-11-17)
By introducing Jaimovich-Rebelo (JR) consumption-labor nonseparable preferences into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model, we show that the occurrence of positive comovement between inflation and the nominal interest rate conditional on a nominal shock - the so-called neo-Fisherian hypothesis - depends on the extent of wealth effects in households’ labor supply decisions. Neo-Fisherianism appears more prominent in economic environments with i) weaker wealth effects on labor supply (in particular for Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffmann preferences where wealth effects are absent), and ii) ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-27

Working Paper
Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model
Hajdini, Ina (2022-02-16)
The paper considers a New Keynesian framework in which agents form expectations based on a combination of mis-specified forecasts and myopia. The proposed expectations formation process is found to be consistent with all three empirical facts on consensus inflation forecasts, namely, that forecasters under-react to ex-ante forecast revisions, that forecasters over-react to recent events, and that the response of forecast errors to a shock initially under-shoots but then over-shoots. The paper then derives the general equilibrium solution consistent with the proposed expectations formation ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-03

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