Search Results
Working Paper
The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices
Gordon, Matthew V.; Lunsford, Kurt Graden
(2023-11-13)
We study how congressional testimony about monetary policy by the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System affects interest rates and stock prices. First, we study testimony associated with the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Reports (MPRs) to Congress. Testimony for a particular MPR is usually given on two days, one day for each chamber of Congress. We separately study the first day and second day of MPR testimony. We also study testimonies not associated with MPRs but that are still related to monetary policy. We find that first-day MPR testimonies cause the largest ...
Working Papers
, Paper 23-26
Working Paper
The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations
Delgado, Martha Elena; Herreño, Juan; Hofstetter, Marc; Pedemonte, Mathieu
(2024-03-25)
We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the expected future exchange rate of a local currency against the US dollar on a representative sample of firms in an open economy. We survey a nationally representative sample of firms and provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate forecast published by the local central bank to a random sub-sample of firm managers. The treatment is effective in shifting exchange rate and inflation expectations and perceptions. These effects are persistent and larger for non-exporting firms. Linking survey responses with administrative census data, we find ...
Working Papers
, Paper 24-07
Working Paper
Job Heterogeneity and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations
Krolikowski, Pawel
(2019-02-01)
This paper disciplines a model with search over match quality using microeconomic evidence on worker mobility patterns and wage dynamics. In addition to capturing these individual data, the model provides an explanation for aggregate labor market patterns. Poor match quality among first jobs implies large fluctuations in unemployment due to a responsive job destruction margin. Endogenous job destruction generates a burst of layoffs at the onset of a recession and, together with on-the-job search, generates a negative comovement between unemployment and vacancies. A significant job ladder, ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-04
Working Paper
Late Payment Fees and Nonpayment in Rental Markets, and Implications for Inflation Measurement: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence
Janson, Wesley; Verbrugge, Randal
(2021-04-06)
tatistical agencies track rental expenditures for use in the national accounts and in consumer price indexes (CPIs). As such, statistical agencies should include late payment fees and nonpayment in rent. In the US context, late payment fees are excluded from the CPI. Ostensibly, nonpayment of rent is included in the US CPI; but its treatment is deficient, and we demonstrate that small variations in nonpayment could lead to large swings in shelter inflation, and might have played a role in the 2009 measured shelter inflation collapse. They didn’t: while the national nonpayment incidence is ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-22R
Working Paper
The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations
Mitchell, James; Zaman, Saeed
(2023-11-30)
This paper examines the predictive relationship between the distribution of realized inflation in the US and measures of inflation expectations from households, firms, financial markets, and professional forecasters. To allow for nonlinearities in the predictive relationship we use quantile regression methods. We find that the ability of households to predict future inflation, relative to that of professionals, firms, and the market, increases with inflation. While professional forecasters are more accurate in the middle of the inflation density, households’ expectations are more useful in ...
Working Papers
, Paper 23-31
Working Paper
Disentangling rent index differences: data, methods, and scope
Adams, Brian; Verbrugge, Randal J.; Loewenstein, Lara; Montag, Hugh
(2023-09-28)
Rent measurement determines 32 percent of the CPI. Accurate rent measurement is therefore essential for accurate inflation measurement, but the CPI rent index often differs from alternative measures of rent inflation. Using repeat-rent inflation measures created from CPI microdata, we show that this discrepancy is largely explained by differences in rent growth for new tenants relative to all tenants. New-tenant rent inflation provides information about future all-tenant rent inflation, but the use of new-tenant rents is contraindicated in a cost-of-living index such as the CPI. Nevertheless, ...
Working Papers
, Paper 22-38R
Working Paper
Applications of Markov Chain Approximation Methods to Optimal Control Problems in Economics
Phelan, Tom; Eslami, Keyvan
(2021-02-10)
In this paper we explore some of the benefits of using the finite-state Markov chain approximation (MCA) method of Kushner and Dupuis (2001) to solve continuous-time optimal control problems. We first show that the implicit finite-difference scheme of Achdou et al. (2017) amounts to a limiting form of the MCA method for a certain choice of approximating chains and policy function iteration for the resulting system of equations. We then illustrate the benefits of departing from policy function iteration by showing that using variations of modified policy function iteration to solve income ...
Working Papers
, Paper 21-04
Working Paper
Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?
Janson, Wesley; Binder, Carola; Verbrugge, Randal
(2019-08-20)
Despite the stability of the median 10-year inflation expectations in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) near 2 percent, we show that not a single SPF respondent?s expectations have been anchored at the target since the Federal Open Market Committee?s (FOMC) enactment of an inflation target in January 2012, or even since 2015. However, we find significant evidence for ?delayed anchoring,? or a move toward being anchored, particularly after the federal funds rate lifted off in December 2015.
Working Papers
, Paper 19-15
Working Paper
News and Uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey Evidence and Short-Run Economic Impact
Kuester, Keith; Schoenle, Raphael; Dietrich, Alexander; Muller, Gernot J.
(2021-12-22)
A tailor-made survey documents consumer perceptions of the U.S. economy’s response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumer views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty amplifies the pandemic recession by a factor of three. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-12R
Working Paper
The Optimal Taxation of Business Owners
Phelan, Tom
(2021-05-28)
Business owners in the United States are disproportionately represented among the wealthy and are exposed to substantial idiosyncratic risk. Further, recent evidence indicates that business income primarily reflects returns to the human capital of the owner. Motivated by these facts, this paper characterizes stationary efficient allocations and optimal linear taxes on income and wealth when business income depends on innate ability, luck, and the past effort of the owner. I first show that in stationary efficient allocations, more productive entrepreneurs typically bear more risk and the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-26R
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Overlapping Generations 1 items
OxyContin 1 items
PETs 1 items
Panel Data 1 items
Panic of 1907 1 items
Perturbation methods 1 items
Policy Effects 1 items
Policy Interventions 1 items
Predictability 1 items
Prediction 1 items
Price-setting 1 items
Proxy Variables 1 items
Quantile regression 1 items
Quantitative easing 1 items
R1 1 items
RMVN 1 items
Rao-Blackwellization 1 items
Rate of Return Heterogeneity 1 items
Rent-price Ratio 1 items
Reserve Bank Organization Committee 1 items
Reserve pyramiding 1 items
Residual-Based Moving Block Bootstrap 1 items
Risk 1 items
Risk Committee 1 items
Risky steady state 1 items
Rivals 1 items
S&P 500 1 items
Saving Jobs 1 items
Scale mixtures 1 items
Search 1 items
Sectoral Heterogeneity 1 items
Sectoral expectations 1 items
Security Markets 1 items
Sequential Monte Carlo 1 items
Simulation 1 items
Social Insurance 1 items
Solving dynamic equilibrium models 1 items
Spatial Inequality 1 items
Spatial Sorting 1 items
Steady-state Inflation 1 items
Sticky Information 1 items
Sticky Price 1 items
Sticky Wages 1 items
Structural Vector Autoregression 1 items
Structural term structure modeling 1 items
Supercore inflation 1 items
Survey Data 1 items
Survey of Professional Forecasters 1 items
TANK 1 items
TFP 1 items
Tax reform 1 items
Taylor Rule 1 items
Term structure 1 items
Time-varying risk premia 1 items
Toxic Stress 1 items
Trade 1 items
Treasury note 1 items
US Elections 1 items
US Treasury 1 items
Universal Basic Income 1 items
Urban Wage Premium 1 items
Variance forecasts 1 items
Wage Inequality 1 items
Wage Rigidity 1 items
Waves of Over- and Under-Reaction 1 items
Wealth 1 items
Wealth Effects 1 items
Wealth Inequality 1 items
Wild Bootstrap 1 items
Yield curve 1 items
Zero Interest Rates 1 items
accelerated depreciation 1 items
addiction 1 items
adverse selection 1 items
affirmative action 1 items
age distribution 1 items
aggregate consumption 1 items
aggregate productivity 1 items
aggregation effects 1 items
ambiguous communication 1 items
amplification 1 items
asymmetric information 1 items
asymmetry 1 items
average inflation targeting 1 items
average markup 1 items
average rent growth 1 items
bank credit 1 items
banking networks 1 items
blockchain 1 items
business taxation 1 items
capital requirements 1 items
capital-skill complementarity 1 items
cash buyers 1 items
censored observations 1 items
central bank design 1 items
cointegration 1 items
college admissions 1 items
college/non-college educated 1 items
common trend 1 items
composition effects 1 items
constrained optimization 1 items
construction 1 items
consumer expectations 1 items
contingent faculty 1 items
core inflation 1 items
cost-push shocks 1 items
credibility 1 items
credible disinflation 1 items
credit access 1 items
credit constraints 1 items
credit easing 1 items
credit unions 1 items
crime 1 items
cryptocurrency 1 items
currency unions 1 items
data 1 items
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