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Working Paper
Monetary Policy with Judgment
Manganelli, Simone; Gelain, Paolo (2020-05-21)
We consider two approaches to incorporate judgment into DSGE models. First, Bayesian estimation indirectly imposes judgment via priors on model parameters, which are then mapped into a judgmental interest rate decision. Standard priors are shown to be associated with highly unrealistic judgmental decisions. Second, judgmental interest rate decisions are directly provided by the decision maker and incorporated into a formal statistical decision rule using frequentist procedures. When the observed interest rates are interpreted as judgmental decisions, they are found to be consistent with DSGE ...
Working Papers , Paper 202014

Working Paper
Quantitative Easing and Direct Lending in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis
Occhino, Filippo (2020-10-05)
When the COVID-19 crisis hit the economy in 2020, the Federal Reserve responded with numerous programs designed to prevent a collapse in bank credit and firms’ available funds. I develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to study how these programs work and to evaluate their effectiveness. In the model, quantitative easing works through three channels: the expansion of bank reserves lowers a liquidity premium, the purchase of assets lowers a volatility risk premium, and the economic stimulus lowers a credit risk premium. Since bank reserves are currently larger than in the past, the ...
Working Papers , Paper 202029

Working Paper
Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary; Pfarrhofer, Michael; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano (2021-03-22)
We develop novel multivariate time series models using Bayesian additive regression trees that posit nonlinear relationships among macroeconomic variables, their lags, and possibly the lags of the errors. The variance of the errors can be stable, driven by stochastic volatility (SV), or follow a novel nonparametric specification. Estimation is carried out using scalable Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation algorithms for each specification. We evaluate the real-time density and tail forecasting performance of the various models for a set of US macroeconomic and financial indicators. Our ...
Working Papers , Paper 202108

Working Paper
The Unintended Consequences of Employer Credit Check Bans for Labor Markets
Glover, Andrew; Tasci, Murat; Cortes, Kristle Romero (2019-02-25)
Over the last decade, 11 states have restricted employers? access to the credit reports of job applicants. We document a significant decline in county-level vacancies after these laws were enacted: Job postings fall by 5.5 percent in affected occupations relative to exempt occupations in the same county and the same occupation nationwide. Cross-sectional heterogeneity in the estimated effects suggests that employers use credit reports as signals: Vacancies fall more in counties with a large share of subprime residents, while they fall less in occupations with other commonly available signals.
Working Papers , Paper 201905

Working Paper
Optimal Epidemic Control in Equilibrium with Imperfect Testing and Enforcement
Phelan, Tom; Toda, Alexis (2021-08-04)
We analyze equilibrium behavior and optimal policy within a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model augmented with potentially undiagnosed agents who infer their health status and a social planner with imperfect enforcement of social distancing. We define and prove the existence of a perfect Bayesian Markov competitive equilibrium and contrast it with the efficient allocation subject to the same informational constraints. We identify two externalities, static (individual actions affect current risk of infection) and dynamic (individual actions affect future disease prevalence), and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-15

Working Paper
On the Optimality of Differential Asset Taxation
Phelan, Tom (2019-08-29)
How should a utilitarian government balance redistributive concerns with the need to provide incentives for business creation and investment? Should they tax business profits, the (risk-free) savings of owners, or some combination of both? To address this question, this paper presents a model in which the desirability of differential asset taxation emerges endogenously from the presence of agency frictions. I consider an environment in which entrepreneurs hire workers and rent capital to produce output subject to privately observed shocks and have the ability to both divert capital to private ...
Working Papers , Paper 201917

Working Paper
Firms, Skills, and Wage Inequality
Pinheiro, Roberto; Tasci, Murat (2019-04-19)
We present a model with search frictions and heterogeneous agents that allows us to decompose the overall increase in US wage inequality in the last 30 years into its within- and between-firm and skill components. We calibrate the model to evaluate how much of the overall rise in wage inequality and its components is explained by different channels. Output distribution per firm-skill pair more than accounts for the observed increase over this period. Parametric identification implies that the worker-specific component is responsible for 85 percent of this, compared to 15 percent that is ...
Working Papers , Paper 201706R

Working Paper
Making Friends Meet: Network Formation with Introductions
Siedlarek, Jan-Peter (2021-06-18)
This paper proposes a parsimonious model of network formation with introductions in the presence of intermediation rents. Introductions allow two nodes to form a new connection on favorable terms with the help of a common neighbor. The decision to form links via introductions is subject to a trade-oﬀ between the gains from having a direct connection at lower cost and the potential losses for the introducer from lower intermediation rents. When nodes take advantage of introductions, stable networks tend to exhibit a minimum of clustering. At the same time, intermediary nodes have incentives ...
Working Papers , Paper 202001R

Working Paper
Making Friends Meet: Network Formation with Introductions
Siedlarek, Jan-Peter (2020-01-15)
High levels of clustering—the tendency for two nodes in a network to share a neighbor—are ubiquitous in economic and social networks across different applications. In addition, many real-world networks show high payoffs for nodes that connect otherwise separate network regions, representing rewards for filling “structural holes” in the sense of Burt (1992) and keeping distances in networks short. This paper proposes a parsimonious model of network formation with introductions and intermediation rents that can explain both these features. Introductions make it cheaper to create ...
Working Papers , Paper 202001

Working Paper
Federal Reserve Structure, Economic Ideas, and Monetary and Financial Policy
Bordo, Michael D.; Prescott, Edward Simpson (2019-06-21)
The decentralized structure of the Federal Reserve System is evaluated as a mechanism for generating and processing new ideas on monetary and financial policy. The role of the Reserve Banks starting in the 1960s is emphasized. The introduction of monetarism in the 1960s, rational expectations in the 1970s, credibility in the 1980s, transparency, and other monetary policy ideas by Reserve Banks into the Federal Reserve System is documented. Contributions by Reserve Banks to policy on bank structure, bank regulation, and lender of last resort are also discussed. We argue that the Reserve Banks ...
Working Papers , Paper 201913

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