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Working Paper
The Effect of Possible EU Diversification Requirements on the Risk of Banks’ Sovereign Bond Portfolios
Giuzio, Margherita; Paterlini, Sandra; Craig, Ben R.
(2019-05-28)
Recent policy discussion includes the introduction of diversification requirements for sovereign bond portfolios of European banks. In this paper, we evaluate the possible effects of these constraints on risk and diversification in the sovereign bond portfolios of the major European banks. First, we capture the dependence structure of European countries? sovereign risks and identify the common factors driving European sovereign CDS spreads by means of an independent component analysis. We then analyze the risk and diversification in the sovereign bond portfolios of the largest European banks ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-12
Working Paper
Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael
(2022-06-23)
Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers’ inflation expectations and their income growth expectations. In a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we find that the rate of passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth is incomplete, on the order of 20 percent. There is no statistically significant effect going in the other direction. Passthrough varies systematically with demographic and socioeconomic factors, with greater passthrough for higher-income individuals than lower-income individuals, although it is ...
Working Papers
, Paper 22-21
Working Paper
The Politics of Flat Taxes
Dolmas, Jim; Carroll, Daniel R.; Young, Eric R.
(2019-09-25)
We study the political determination of flat tax systems using a workhorse macroeconomic model of inequality. There is significant variation in preferred tax policy across the wealth and income distribution. The majority voting outcome features (i) zero labor income taxation, (ii) simultaneous use of capital income and consumption taxation, and (iii) essentially zero transfers. This policy is supported by a coalition of low- and middle-wealth households. Zero labor income taxation is supported by households with below average wealth, while the middle-wealth households prefer to keep the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 14-42R2
Working Paper
The Effect of Local Economic Shocks on Local and National Elections
Herreño, Juan; Morales, Matias; Pedemonte, Mathieu
(2023-03-29)
We study the reaction of voters to shifts in local economic conditions. Using the departure from the gold standard of US trading partners in 1931 and the US in 1933, we exploit heterogeneity in export destinations, creating local differences in expenditure-switching in US counties by isolating the aggregate effects of the monetary shocks using time fixed effects. We find significant changes in local voting behavior in response to both shocks, one originating abroad, and another domestically. The response to both shocks have similar magnitude. We argue that voters punished and rewarded ...
Working Papers
, Paper 23-08
Working Paper
Opioids and the Labor Market
Schweitzer, Mark E.; Fee, Kyle; Aliprantis, Dionissi
(2019-11-15)
This paper studies the relationship between local opioid prescription rates and labor market outcomes for prime-age men and women between 2006 and 2016. We estimate the relationship at the most disaggregated level feasible in the American Community Survey in order to provide estimates that include rural areas that have, in some cases, seen particularly high prescription rates. Given the limited time period, it is particularly important to account for geographic variation in both short-term and long-term economic conditions. We estimate three panel models to control for evolving local economic ...
Working Papers
, Paper 18-07R2
Working Paper
Employer Wage Subsidy Caps and Part-Time Work
Elvery, Joel; Rohlin, Shawn M.; Reynolds, C. Lockwood
(2021-01-06)
Hiring credits and employer wage subsidies are tools that policymakers have available to attempt to improve labor market conditions for workers. This study explores how capped-wage subsidies affect firms’ labor market decisions, in particular, their reliance on part-time and low-skill workers. We focus on the federal Empowerment Zone program, which offers firms in targeted areas a 20 percent wage subsidy (capped at $3,000 per year) for each employee who also resides in the Empowerment Zone. Results using different methods of identification suggest that firms respond to capped-wage subsidies ...
Working Papers
, Paper 21-01
Working Paper
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph
(2022-08-01)
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the choice of aggregation will affect the properties of economy-wide wage growth measures. To assess the importance of this consideration, we provide a decomposition of wage growth into aggregation effects and composition effects and use the decomposition to compare growth in an average wage—specifically ...
Working Papers
, Paper 22-22
Working Paper
Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District
Fallick, Bruce; Tasci, Murat
(2020-07-01)
We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards.
Working Papers
, Paper 20-19
Working Paper
Job-to-Job Flows and the Consequences of Job Separations
McEntarfer, Erika; Haltiwanger, John; Fallick, Bruce; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/
(2019-12-13)
A substantial empirical literature documents large and persistent average earnings losses following job displacement. Our paper extends the literature on displaced workers by providing a comprehensive picture of earnings and employment outcomes for all workers who separate. We show that for workers not recalled to their previous employer, earnings losses follow separations in general, as opposed to displacements in particular. The key predictor of earnings losses is not displacement but the length of the nonemployment spell following job separation. Moreover, displaced workers are no more ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-27
Working Paper
The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Heterogeneous Production Economy
Schoenle, Raphael; Pasten, Ernesto
(2019-11-15)
Realistic heterogeneity in price rigidity interacts with heterogeneity in sectoral size and input-output linkages in the transmission of monetary policy shocks. Quantitatively, heterogeneity in price stickiness is the central driver for real effects. Input-output linkages and consumption shares alter the identity of the most important sectors to the transmission. Reducing the number of sectors decreases monetary non-neutrality with a similar impact response of inflation. Hence, the initial response of inflation to monetary shocks is not sufficient to discriminate across models and ignoring ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-25
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Airaudo, Marco 1 items
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Yield curve 1 items
Zero Interest Rates 1 items
accelerated depreciation 1 items
affirmative action 1 items
age distribution 1 items
aggregate consumption 1 items
aggregation effects 1 items
ambiguous communication 1 items
amplification 1 items
asymmetry 1 items
average inflation targeting 1 items
average markup 1 items
average rent growth 1 items
banking networks 1 items
blockchain 1 items
capital requirements 1 items
censored observations 1 items
central bank design 1 items
cointegration 1 items
college admissions 1 items
common trend 1 items
composition effects 1 items
constrained optimization 1 items
consumer expectations 1 items
contingent faculty 1 items
core inflation 1 items
credibility 1 items
credible disinflation 1 items
credit access 1 items
credit constraints 1 items
credit easing 1 items
crime 1 items
cryptocurrency 1 items
currency unions 1 items
data collection and modeling 1 items
delayed anchoring 1 items
demographics 1 items
density combinations 1 items
density nowcasts 1 items
detMCD 1 items
displaced workers 1 items
diversification 1 items
duration dependence 1 items
dynamic factor models 1 items
economic development 1 items
economic forecasting 1 items
economic impact payments 1 items
education 1 items
effective lower bound 1 items
employment growth 1 items
energy prices 1 items
entrepreneurship 1 items
event study 1 items
export-led growth 1 items
external sector 1 items
externalities 1 items
favored price endings 1 items
financial accelerator 1 items
financial development 1 items
financial health 1 items
financial recession 1 items
financial regulations 1 items
firm growth 1 items
fiscal stimulus 1 items
fixed exchange rates 1 items
fixed-rate contracts 1 items
forecast accuracy 1 items
forward guidance 1 items
fragility 1 items
government transfers 1 items
government-sponsored enterprises 1 items
growth 1 items
hazard models 1 items
heterogeneity 1 items
heterogeneous firms 1 items
heterogeneous-agent model 1 items
higher education 1 items
hiring credits 1 items
home bias 1 items
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