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Journal Article
What labor market theory tells us about the \"New Economy\"
An investigation of whether economic theory supports the claim that a technology shock can change the "natural rate of unemployment."
Journal Article
The outlook for inflation
A look at whether we can have an economic recovery without reaccelerating inflation. The authors consider past behavior of prices, wages, capacity utilization, and productivity growth in their analysis.
Journal Article
Disinflation, equity valuation, and investor rationality
An examination of the relationship between inflation and equity prices, concluding that equity prices respond rationally to such factors as real interest rates and risk.
Journal Article
A conference on federal credit allocation
An overview of an October 1993 conference that examined the costs, causes, and consequences of credit allocation by the federal government, covering both the broad rationale for government intervention in U.S. credit markets and a number of specific programs and regulations.
Journal Article
Can services be a source of export-led growth? Evidence from the fourth district
A discussion of the role played by service exports in sustaining a regional economy, with the contention that its growth reflects a natural and inevitable response to rising wealth.
Journal Article
Cyclical movements of the labor input and its implicit real wage
An examination of whether a different specification for labor input and real wages leads to a reconsideration of labor force volatility during business cycles.
Journal Article
Airline hubs: a study of determining factors & effects
A study of the determinants that influence where airlines establish hubs in the hub-and-spoke networks that developed in the industry, with identification of the quantitative effects of these determinants.
Journal Article
The Third Industrial Revolution
The author examines periods of rapid technological change for coincidences of widening inequality and slowing productivity growth. He contends that while the introduction of technologies offers profits to investors and premiums for skilled workers, in the long run the rising tide of technological change lifts everybody's boat.
Journal Article
Productivity and the term structure
The recent record-setting economic expansion and the accompanying record-setting bull market in stocks are often attributed to Federal Reserve interest rate policy and increased productivity. But if interest rates behave differently when productivity changes, interest rate policy may need to change as well. This article examines how productivity changes affect the entire term structure-from short-term interest rates like the federal funds rate, to long-term rates like mortgages, car loans, and corporate bonds.
Journal Article
Deposit-institution failures: a review of empirical literature
A review of the current literature on deposit-institution failures, emphasizing the various methods used to model the determinants of insolvent and failed institutions.