Search Results
Journal Article
The effects of vertical integration on competing input suppliers
When a downstream firm buys an input supplier, it can reduce its costs of using that input. Other input suppliers typically respond by pricing more aggressively, given the demand reduction, which tends to lower input supply costs to other firms. Thus, a vertical merger may lower rivals' costs instead of raising them.
Journal Article
Commodity prices and P-star
An illustration of how the P-star indicator of future inflation can be modified to include information about the recent behavior of commodity prices. This approach yields more accurate short-run inflation forecasts while still retaining the property that, over the long run, only money matters.
Journal Article
An ebbing tide lowers all boats: monetary policy, inflation, and social justice
An argument that attempting to alleviate the burden of unemployment on the less affluent through expansionary monetary policy may hurt the clientele it is supposed to serve if, ultimately, the policy leads to higher long-run rates of inflation.
Journal Article
Voluntary export restraints: the cost of building walls
An illustration of the cost and employment effects of Japanese voluntary export restraints on new-car imports to the U.S.
Journal Article
Vector autoregressive forecasts of recession and recovery: is less more?
A look at the pros and cons of VAR models, and consideration of how lag lengths affect out-of-sample forecasts.
Journal Article
Theories of loan commitments: a literature review
A loan commitment is an agreement by which a bank promises to lend to a customer at prespecified terms while retaining the right to renege on its promise if the borrower's creditworthiness deteriorates. The contract also specifies the various fees that must be paid over the life of the commitment. Loan commitments are widely used in the economy. As their use has spread, a rich literature has evolved to explain why they exist, how they are priced, and how they affect the risk of the bank and the deposit insurer. This article summarizes what we have learned on these issues. Its main insight is ...
Journal Article
Comparing inflation expectations of households and economists: is a little knowledge a dangerous thing?
A comparison of the performance of forecasts by economists (the Livingston survey), households (the Michigan Survey of Consumer Finances), and a time series model (ARIMA).
Journal Article
Reducing working hours
Journal Article
The Ohio economy: a time series analysis
A time series methodology is used to understand the Ohio economy by assessing various indicators of economic activity in Ohio. These can be identified and quantified through simple methods applicable to other regional economies, as well.
Journal Article
A reexamination of the relationship between capacity utilization and inflation
A review of the theoretical and empirical relationship between capacity utilization and inflation, employing a two-equation structural model that does not suffer from simultaneity bias and that appears to be stable over time.