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Journal Article
Short-Time Compensation: An Alternative to Layoffs during COVID-19
Krolikowski, Pawel; Weixel, Anna (2020-10-22)
We discuss the costs and benefits of short-time compensation (STC), an unemployment insurance program that allows workers with temporarily reduced hours to receive some unemployment insurance benefits. We describe the provisions for STC in the Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012 and the 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act and report the utilization of STC before and after these acts. The number of states with STC programs has remained unchanged at 27 since the beginning of the pandemic, but STC utilization has recently risen to unprecedented ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 26 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Financial Stability: Risks, Resilience, and Policy
Haubrich, Joseph G. (2020-08-06)
As the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout continue, policymakers keep a watchful eye on the stability of the financial system. Having learned many lessons from the financial crisis of 2007–2009, they may again turn to that crisis for insights into potential vulnerabilities emerging in the financial sector and ways to make financial markets and institutions more resilient to shocks. At a recent conference on financial stability, 12 papers and two keynotes explored this ground. This Commentary summarizes the papers’ findings and the keynotes.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 22 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Assessing Layoffs in Four Midwestern States during the Pandemic Recession
Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben; Krolikowski, Pawel (2020-08-05)
We use WARN data to assess layoffs in four Midwestern states during the current pandemic-induced recession—Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The data come from the advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. We find that the number of workers affected by layoff announcements rose sharply in the second half of March and April, and unexpected changes in economic conditions meant that workers received little advance notice before layoff. Layoff announcements have affected workers across these four states, and workers in mining ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 21 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Gaps versus growth rates in the Taylor Rule
Carlstrom, Charles T.; Fuerst, Timothy S. (2012-10-12)
There are many possible formulations of the Taylor rule. We consider two that use different measures of economic activity to which the Fed could react, the output gap and the growth rate of GDP, and investigate which captures past movements of the fed funds rate more closely. Looking at these rules through the lens of a partial-adjustment Taylor rule, we conclude that the gap rule does a better job of explaining the actual funds rate data, and provides a better rule-of-thumb for understanding historical monetary policy.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2012 , Issue 17 , Pages 4

Journal Article
How much U.S. technological innovation begins in universities?
Marschke, Gerald; Kim, Jinyoung (2007-04-15)
Technological progress has been the key to improved living standards, but how and where do new ideas get their start? The answer might give us some insight into how we can support greater innovation. Some suggest universities have been an important source of innovative technology. A look at the people involved in the development of patented technologies can give an idea of how much innovation originates in universities.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2007 , Issue Apr 15 , Pages 4

Journal Article
The Role Bank Branches Play in a Mobile Age
Cortes, Kristle Romero (2015-11-16)
Economic Commentary , Volume 2015 , Issue 14 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Are Millennials with Student Loans Upwardly Mobile?
Whitaker, Stephan (2015-10-01)
Students have been amassing ever growing levels of debt to attend college. The situation has raised concerns about whether the debt is high enough that the benefits of borrowing--in terms of students' future socioeconomic outcomes--are compromised. This Commentary investigates relationships between student debt, mobility, and upward social mobility. The findings suggest that student debts have not become so burdensome that they undo the advantages of higher skills. However, the advantages enjoyed by heavily indebted millennial students relative to nonborrowers have declined substantially from ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2015 , Issue 12 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty
Knotek, Edward S.; Clark, Todd E.; Zaman, Saeed (2015-03-20)
Looking across a range of statistical models, we consider the likely path of future inflation and the uncertainty surrounding the models' predictions. The models suggest that inflation is on a rising path, and while inflation forecast uncertainty is somewhat elevated relative to the norms of the last 20 years, core inflation uncertainty is relatively low. For both inflation rates, forecast uncertainty is much lower as of the first quarter of 2015 than it was around the Great Recession.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2015 , Issue 03 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Manufacturing or Degree-Intensive Labor Markets: Where Do the Children of Non-College Graduates Earn More Degrees?
Whitaker, Stephan (2016-10-16)
Manufacturing employment has declined since the 1970s, while the number of jobs requiring a college degree has risen. The shift has reshaped the environment in which many young people grow up and pursue their educations, potentially affecting the level of education they attain. This analysis uses the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth to investigate the relationship between industrial composition and the educational attainment of children whose parents have only a high school education or less. The results show that the educational attainment of these youths is correlated with their ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2016 , Issue 12 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Labor Market Tightness across the United States since the Great Recession
Tasci, Murat; Treanor, Caitlin (2018-01-16)
Though labor market statistics are often reported and discussed at the national level, conditions can vary quite a bit across individual states. We explore differences in these conditions before and after the Great Recession using a ratio of the number of unemployed workers to job vacancies. We show that the intensity of the adverse effects of the recession and the strength of the recovery varied geographically at all points in the process. We also demonstrate that wage growth is delayed until the ratio of unemployed workers to job vacancies returns to prerecession levels.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2018 , Issue 01 , Pages 6

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