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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 

The Federal Reserve’s New Monetary Policy Strategy

In my brief remarks today, I will give an overview of the changes to our monetary policy strategy that the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policymaking body within the Federal Reserve, recently announced and discuss their implications for monetary policy going forward. As always, the views I will present are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.

Journal Article
Short-Time Compensation: An Alternative to Layoffs during COVID-19

We discuss the costs and benefits of short-time compensation (STC), an unemployment insurance program that allows workers with temporarily reduced hours to receive some unemployment insurance benefits. We describe the provisions for STC in the Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012 and the 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act and report the utilization of STC before and after these acts. The number of states with STC programs has remained unchanged at 27 since the beginning of the pandemic, but STC utilization has recently risen to unprecedented ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 26 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era

We measure the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, and we assess the consequences of the latter for key economic variables. We use a large, heteroskedastic vector autoregression (VAR) in which the error volatilities share two common factors, interpreted as macro and financial uncertainty, in addition to idiosyncratic components. Macro and financial uncertainty are allowed to contemporaneously affect the macroeconomy and financial conditions, with changes in the common component of the volatilities providing contemporaneous identifying information on ...
Working Papers , Paper 202032

Working Paper
Even Keel and the Great Inflation

During the early part of the Great Inflation (1965-1975), the Federal Reserve undertook even-keel operations to assist the US Treasury’s coupon security sales. Accordingly, the central bank delayed any tightening of monetary policy and permanently injected reserves into the banking system. Using real-time Taylor-type and McCallum-like reaction functions, we show that the Fed routinely undertook these operations only when it was otherwise tightening monetary policy. Using a quantity-equation framework, we show that the Federal Reserve’s even-keel actions added approximately one percentage ...
Working Papers , Paper 202033

Toward a More Inclusive Economy

It is clear that the adverse effects of the pandemic have not been evenly distributed. They have been borne by the most vulnerable in our economy: lower-income and minority workers and communities; those who do not have the opportunity to work from home; those who do not live in areas with reliable telecommunications and internet services or access to adequate healthcare; and the smaller of small businesses. Indeed, the results from a recent Fed survey show that between March and July, a larger percentage of low-income workers, less educated workers, and Black and Hispanic workers were laid ...

The Fed’s Main Street Lending Program, explained

Through its Main Street Lending Program, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $600 billion in loans that lenders, such as banks and credit unions, make to small and midsize businesses and nonprofits. When lenders sell their loans to the Fed, they can use the money they receive to make more loans.

Journal Article
Financial Stability: Risks, Resilience, and Policy

As the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout continue, policymakers keep a watchful eye on the stability of the financial system. Having learned many lessons from the financial crisis of 2007–2009, they may again turn to that crisis for insights into potential vulnerabilities emerging in the financial sector and ways to make financial markets and institutions more resilient to shocks. At a recent conference on financial stability, 12 papers and two keynotes explored this ground. This Commentary summarizes the papers’ findings and the keynotes.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 22 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Assessing Layoffs in Four Midwestern States during the Pandemic Recession

We use WARN data to assess layoffs in four Midwestern states during the current pandemic-induced recession—Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The data come from the advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. We find that the number of workers affected by layoff announcements rose sharply in the second half of March and April, and unexpected changes in economic conditions meant that workers received little advance notice before layoff. Layoff announcements have affected workers across these four states, and workers in mining ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 21 , Pages 6

The Economy and Monetary Policy in Our Challenging Times

I want to acknowledge the important role that the participants in this conference play in our economy and in society. In recent years, some have questioned whether a liberal arts education offers the same value as it once did, and point to other types of programs that, in their view, better prepare students for the job market. I take the opposite view: to me the value of a liberal arts education has never been clearer. The current pandemic underscores the fact that the future is uncertain. A year ago, I certainly wasn’t imagining we would be in the place we find ourselves today. If we want ...

Working Paper
Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve

Does the yield curve’s ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates are low, as in the current global environment? In this paper we build on recent econometric work by Shi, Phillips, and Hurn that detects changes in the causal impact of the yield curve and relate that to the level of interest rates. We explore the issue using historical data going back to the 19th century for the United States and more recent data for the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan. This paper is similar in spirit to Ramey and Zubairy (2018), who look at the government spending ...
Working Papers , Paper 202024



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