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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 

COVID-19 and Supply Chains: A Year of Evolving Disruption

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland regularly surveys a broad cross-section of businesses in the region it serves and convenes business advisory councils in eight of the region’s major metropolitan areas. The information collected through these surveys and conversations points to trends that are not yet apparent in the data and fills gaps in researchers’ understanding of our region’s economy. The information is helpful to Federal Reserve policymakers during their discussions about the nation’s monetary policy. Anecdotes herein have been edited for length and clarity.
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief , Paper 20210226

Journal Article
On the rotation of the earth, drunken sailors, and exchange rate policy

A growing number of observers seem to believe that official foreign exchange intervention offers a useful tool for managing the dollar?s descent. In particular situations, official transactions can sometimes produce temporary changes in exchange rates, but intervention does not permit countries to avoid or substantially modify trends in the movements of their exchange rates. At best, intervention is of very limited value.
Economic Commentary , Issue Feb

Journal Article
The effects of vertical integration on competing input suppliers

When a downstream firm buys an input supplier, it can reduce its costs of using that input. Other input suppliers typically respond by pricing more aggressively, given the demand reduction, which tends to lower input supply costs to other firms. Thus, a vertical merger may lower rivals' costs instead of raising them.
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 2-8

Conference Paper
Demandable debt as a means of payment: banknotes versus checks

Proceedings

Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a massive change in the movement of people at both the neighborhood and the regional levels in the United States. New migration estimates will enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends.
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief

Report
Resilience and Recovery: Insights from the July 2022 Eastern Kentucky Flood

Because of its topography, location, and coal mining legacy, eastern Kentucky has a long history of flooding. This report focuses on housing in the 13 counties declared federal disaster areas after the July 2022 flood.
Community Development Publications

Journal Article
Medicare: usual and customary remedies will no longer work

A description of the structural deficiencies that have led to Medicare's impending bankruptcy, and a discussion of the merits of alternative approaches to extending the program's long-term viability. The author argues that the best approach is to adopt a "defined contribution" plan that will restore consumers' interest in economizing on health care services and boost competition among providers and insurers.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Working Paper
Outside Lending in the NYC Call Loan Market

Before the Panic of 1907 the large New York City banks were able to maintain the call loan market?s liquidity during panics, but the rise in outside lending by trust companies and interior banks in the decade leading up the panic weakened the influence of the large banks. Creating a reliable source of liquidity and reserves external to the financial market like a central bank became obvious after the panic. The lack of a lender of last resort for investment banks engaged in bank-like activities during the crisis of 2007-09 revealed a similar need for an external liquidity source.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1408

Working Paper
The computational experiment: an econometric tool

A specification of the steps in designing a computational experiment to address a well-posed quantitative question, emphasizing that the computational experiment is an econometric tool used in the task of deriving the quantitative implications of theory.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9420

Journal Article
Commodity prices and P-star

An illustration of how the P-star indicator of future inflation can be modified to include information about the recent behavior of commodity prices. This approach yields more accurate short-run inflation forecasts while still retaining the property that, over the long run, only money matters.
Economic Review , Volume 28 , Issue Q I , Pages 11-17

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