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Working Paper
The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle at long horizons
The failure of consumption based asset pricing models to match the stochastic properties of the equity premium and the risk-free rate has been attributed by some authors to frictions, transaction costs or durability. However, such frictions would primarily affect the higher frequency data components: consumption-based pricing models that concentrate on long-horizon returns should be more successful. ; We consider three consumption-based models of the asset-pricing kernel: time-separable utility, and the models of Abel (1990) and Constantinides (1990). We estimate a vector ARCH model that ...
Working Paper
On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates
We document extreme bias and dispersion in the small sample distributions of five standard regression tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. These biases derive from the extreme persistence in short interest rates. We derive approximate analytic expressions for these biases, and we characterize the small-sample distributions of these test statistics under a simple first-order autoregressive data generating process for the short rate. The biases are also present when the short rate is modeled with a more realistic regime-switching process. The differences ...
Working Paper
Optimal contingent bank liquidation under moral hazard
Working Paper
Capital adequacy and the growth of U.S. banks
Working Paper
Payments system risk issues in a global economy