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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 

Journal Article
How does an increase in government purchases affect economy?

This article studies the impact on aggregate economic activity of increases in defense purchases which are unrelated to other developments in the economy. The authors use empirical evidence to evaluate the predictions of several prominent models.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 22 , Issue Q III , Pages 29-43

Journal Article
When can we forecast inflation?

This article reassesses recent work that has challenged the usefulness of inflation forecasts. The authors find that inflation forecasts were informative in 1977-84 and 1993-2000, but less informative in 1985-92. They also find that standard forecasting models, while generally poor at forecasting the magnitude of inflation, are good at forecasting the direction of change of inflation.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 26 , Issue Q I , Pages 32-44

How does labor adjustment in this recession compare with the past?

The authors examine how firms are adjusting their work force during the current recession in comparison with other recessions over the past 40 years.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Jun

Conference Paper
An IMF perspective on the challenges and opportunities of the Basel II

Proceedings , Paper 1059

Conference Paper
The market perception of bank off balance sheet activities

Proceedings , Paper 120

Conference Paper
The role of nonbanks in commercial lending

Proceedings , Paper 285

Conference Paper
Dividend behavior of financially distressed savings institutions

Proceedings , Paper 34

Conference Paper
Competition and risk taking by Spanish banks

Proceedings , Paper 1109

Working Paper
External and Public Debt Crises

The recent debt crises in Europe and the U.S. states feature similar sharp increases in spreads on government debt but also show important differences. In Europe, the crisis occurred at high government indebtedness levels and had spillovers to the private sector. In the United States, state government indebtedness was low, and the crisis had no spillovers to the private sector. We show theoretically and empirically that these different debt experiences result from the interplay between differences in the ability of governments to interfere in private external debt contracts and differences in ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2015-5

Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from Covid-19 Stimulus Payments

We identify 22,340 recipients of Covid-19 Economic Impact Payments in anonymized transaction-level debit card data from Facteus. We use an event study framework to show that in the two weeks following a sudden $1,200 payment from the IRS, consumers immediately increased spending by an average of $604, implying a marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 50%. Consumer spending fell back to normal levels after two weeks. Stimulus recipients who live paycheck-to-paycheck spend 62% of the stimulus payment within two weeks, while recipients who save much of their monthly income spend only 35% of the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-15



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Testa, William A. 88 items

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