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Bank:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)  Series:International Finance Discussion Papers 

Working Paper
Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

This paper explores the direct effects and spillovers of unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. We find that official purchases of foreign assets have a large positive effect on a country's current account that diminishes considerably as capital mobility rises. There is an important additional effect through the lagged stock of official assets. Official purchases of domestic assets, or quantitative easing (QE), appear to have no significant effect on a country's current account when capital mobility is high, but there is a modest positive impact when capital mobility is low. The ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1194

Working Paper
A model of crises in emerging markets

This paper presents a "first generation" model of speculative attacks on emerging markets. Credit-constrained governments accumulate liquid assets in order to self-insure against shocks to national consumption. Governments also insure poorly regulated domestic financial markets. Given this policy regime, a variety of internal and external shocks generate capital inflows followed by anticipated speculative attacks. The model suggests that a common shock generated capital inflows to emerging markets in Asia and Latin America after 1989. Country-specific factors determined the timing of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 630

Working Paper
Postwar financial policies in Taiwan, China

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 252

Working Paper
Why Do Short Sellers Like Qualitative News?

Short sellers trade more on days with qualitative news--i.e. news containing fewer numbers. We show that this behavior is not informationally motivated but can be explained by short sellers exploiting higher liquidity on such days. We document that liquidity and noise trading increase in the presence of qualitative news thus enabling short sellers to better disguise their informed trades. Natural experiments support our findings. For example, qualitative news has a bigger effect on short sellers' trading after a decrease in liquidity following a stock's deletion from S&P 500 and a lower ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1149

Working Paper
Understanding Persistent Stagnation

We theoretically explore long-run stagnation at the zero lower bound in a representative agent framework. We analytically compare expectations-driven stagnation to a secular stagnation episode and find contrasting policy implications for changes in government spending, supply shocks and neo-Fisherian policies. On the other hand, a minimum wage policy is expansionary and robust to the source of stagnation. Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a DSGE model that can accommodate two competing hypotheses of long-run stagnation in Japan. We document that equilibrium selection under indeterminacy ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1243

Working Paper
Estimating consumer import demand equations

International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 105

Working Paper
Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany

This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. Using a dynamic model, we highlight three channels through which employment targets impact firms: distorted employment decisions, increased productivity, and higher exit rates. Our empirical analysis, using a novel dataset and instrumental variable approach, confirms these findings. We estimate a 22% points higher annual employment ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1382

Working Paper
Monetary policy in the end-game to exchange-rate based stabilizations: the case of Mexico

Exchange-rate based stabilizations, while useful in accelerating the disinflation process, typically lead to overvalued exchange rates and large current account deficits. These factors, in turn, make it difficult to sustain exchange rate pegs, placing heaving demands upon monetary policy to sustain exchange-rate based programs in their later phases. This paper evaluates the extent to which Mexican monetary policy in 1994 may have loosened, or not tightened sufficiently, in the lead up to the devaluation of the peso that December. Using econometric models of the demand for money, we find ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 540

Working Paper
High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility?

High real interest rates have been observed in many countries for several months after the adoption of disinflation programs. While they may reflect primarily a liquidity crunch, high ex post real interest rates can also be explained in terms of an ex post error in inflation expectations that reflects a lack of credibility of the low-inflation policy. The latter hypothesis is tested using data for Argentina, Israel, and Mexico during the implementation of the stabilization programs in the mid-1980s.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 543

Working Paper
International banking facilities

The Federal Reserve Board permitted banking offices located in the United States to establish International Banking Facilities (IBFs) beginning in December 1981. The purpose was to allow these banking offices to conduct a deposit and loan business with foreign residents, including foreign banks, without being subject to reserve requirements or to the interest rate ceilings then in effect. IBFs are also exempt from the insurance coverage and assessments imposed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. In addition, a number of states have encouraged banking institutions to establish IBFs ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 333

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