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Discussion Paper
"Low-For-Long" Interest Rates and Portfolio Shifts in Advanced Foreign Economies
For the past several years, interest rates in many advanced economies have been at historic lows. Although low interest rates have helped support recovery in these economies, persistently low rates have also raised concerns about increased incentives for risk-taking by investors to achieve higher yields.
Discussion Paper
The Slowdown in Global Trade
The slowdown in trade has received a great deal of attention, and it is sometimes cited as one of the reasons for the sluggishness of global output growth. However, the linkage between the two is not clear-cut.
Discussion Paper
Predicting Fed Forecasts
Monetary policy decisions by the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have attracted considerable attention in recent years, especially with quantitative easing through large-scale asset purchases, the introduction of forward guidance, and December's "lift-off" after seven years of a near-zero federal funds rate. The FOMC's decisions are based in part on the Greenbook forecasts, which are economic forecasts produced by the Federal Reserve Board's staff and which are presented to the FOMC prior to their policy meetings. This note shows that the minutes of the FOMC meetings--and the ...
Discussion Paper
Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt : How Concerned Should We Be?
Nonfinancial corporate (NFC) debt in emerging market economies (EMEs) has tripled since the global financial crisis (GFC), reaching roughly $25 trillion, or 112 percent of GDP, in mid-2016. In this note, we assess corporate vulnerabilities by looking at two common metrics related to debt-servicing capacity: leverage (the ratio of debt to equity), and the interest coverage ratio (the ratio of earnings to interest expense).
Discussion Paper
How Do Liquidity Conditions Affect U.S. Bank Lending?
The recent financial crisis underscored the importance of understanding how liquidity conditions for banks (or other financial institutions) influence the banks' lending to domestic and foreign customers.
Discussion Paper
The Effect of the GST on Indian Growth
This note first documents India's current tax system and describes the changes approved under the new GST legislation. Second, it analyzes the impact of the new GST on Indian GDP and welfare through the impact on domestic and international trade. Finally, this note examines the sensitivity of the growth and welfare outcomes under an alternative scenario of the GST bill.
Discussion Paper
Measuring Cross Country Monetary Policy Uncertainty
In previous work, we constructed a news-based index of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) that captures the degree of uncertainty the public perceives about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences. In this note, we extend that work to Canada, the Euro Area, Japan, and United Kingdom.
Discussion Paper
The Surprising Strength of U.S. Imports During the Recovery
Import and exports of goods and services, after rebounding sharply in the immediate post-recession period, have more recently returned to a pace of growth more in line with their pre-recession averages.
Discussion Paper
What's Driving the Recent Slump in U.S. Imports?
In this post, we explore what has been driving the recent slump in U.S. imports of non-oil goods.
Discussion Paper
Does Automation Drive the Labor Market?
In this note we question the emerging view that automation is a primary driver of wage and employment outcomes in labor markets.