Foreign Competition and Domestic Jobs : Evidence from the U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance
Using data on the certified petitions for U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance, I document that international trade unevenly affects reallocation and employment across U.S. states. Job gains are precisely lower in the places that shed more jobs due to trade. One extra trade-displaced worker is associated with the net employment falling by two extra workers relative to other locations. These unequal outcomes are in part due to the lack of worker mobility across locations.
China's Footprints on the Global Economy : Remarks Delivered at the Second IMF and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Research Workshop on the Chinese Economy
This note explores some key aspects of China’s economic rise and the spillovers to the rest of the world that this rise has created. It then examines, using the Federal Reserve Board’s large-scale global model (SIGMA), the potential consequences for the global economy were China’s economy to slow sharply. Although the probability of such an event is low, a sharp slowdown of Chinese economic growth could have significant consequences for the global economy.
Differences in Stock Returns of U.S. Firms with High and Low Tradability
In this note, I summarize the methodology and findings of my research paper and draw out the policy implications. The effects of GDP growth appear to matter more but the link between exchange rates and stock returns is also economically and statistically significant. The policy implications are that the spread in returns between U.S. firms with high and low tradability could provide a hedge against recessions. At the same time, stock returns are also informative about future exchange rate movements.
"Low-For-Long" Interest Rates and Portfolio Shifts in Advanced Foreign Economies
For the past several years, interest rates in many advanced economies have been at historic lows. Although low interest rates have helped support recovery in these economies, persistently low rates have also raised concerns about increased incentives for risk-taking by investors to achieve higher yields.
International Spillovers of Monetary Policy
This note presents a broad-brush overview of some of the salient issues on this topic and provides our sense of the answers to some key questions. We start by sketching out a simple framework for understanding how monetary policy actions spill over to other economies. The note then describes some back-of-the-envelope estimates of how U.S. monetary policy actions are transmitted overseas that we corroborate using a large-scale policy model (SIGMA). Finally, we discuss the implications of monetary policy spillovers for global economic stability, including the challenges posed by those ...
Recent Euro-area Inflows into U.S. Bonds: Reconciling and Understanding New Data Sources
In this note we review the data on U.S. cross-border financial flows and positions with a focus on one question of current interest: have euro-area investors been increasing their holdings of U.S. securities since the possibility of European Central Bank quantitative easing (ECB QE) emerged in the latter half of 2014? The prospect of ECB QE, combined with the prospect of U.S. policy rate liftoff, suggested that U.S. interest rates would soon exceed euro-area rates by a wide margin, which might have provided an incentive for euro-area investors to seek higher-yielding U.S. assets, especially ...
How Vulnerable are EME Corporates?
This note provides an update on the health of EME corporates and examines the extent to which they are vulnerable to risks, including those that might be associated with monetary policy normalization in advanced economies.
Does Automation Drive the Labor Market?
In this note we question the emerging view that automation is a primary driver of wage and employment outcomes in labor markets.
The Effects of Demographic Change on GDP Growth in OECD Economies
This note has evaluated the effects of demographic changes on economic growth performance of OECD countries and found that demographic changes account for a significant portion of growth slowdown in several of these economies in recent years.
Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt : How Concerned Should We Be?
Nonfinancial corporate (NFC) debt in emerging market economies (EMEs) has tripled since the global financial crisis (GFC), reaching roughly $25 trillion, or 112 percent of GDP, in mid-2016. In this note, we assess corporate vulnerabilities by looking at two common metrics related to debt-servicing capacity: leverage (the ratio of debt to equity), and the interest coverage ratio (the ratio of earnings to interest expense).