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Discussion Paper
Predicting Fed Forecasts
Monetary policy decisions by the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have attracted considerable attention in recent years, especially with quantitative easing through large-scale asset purchases, the introduction of forward guidance, and December's "lift-off" after seven years of a near-zero federal funds rate. The FOMC's decisions are based in part on the Greenbook forecasts, which are economic forecasts produced by the Federal Reserve Board's staff and which are presented to the FOMC prior to their policy meetings. This note shows that the minutes of the FOMC meetings--and the ...
Discussion Paper
Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy
Accordingly, in this note we analyze the drivers of EME capital flows, focusing in particular on the role of U.S. monetary policy and other potential factors in the decline in capital flows to EMEs since 2010.
Discussion Paper
Measuring Cross Country Monetary Policy Uncertainty
In previous work, we constructed a news-based index of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) that captures the degree of uncertainty the public perceives about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences. In this note, we extend that work to Canada, the Euro Area, Japan, and United Kingdom.
Discussion Paper
The Effects of Demographic Change on GDP Growth in OECD Economies
This note has evaluated the effects of demographic changes on economic growth performance of OECD countries and found that demographic changes account for a significant portion of growth slowdown in several of these economies in recent years.
Discussion Paper
Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?
The economic collapse in the wake of the global financial crises (GFC) and the weaker-than-expected recovery in many countries have led to questions about the impact of severe downturns on economic potential.
Discussion Paper
Foreign Competition and Domestic Jobs : Evidence from the U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance
Using data on the certified petitions for U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance, I document that international trade unevenly affects reallocation and employment across U.S. states. Job gains are precisely lower in the places that shed more jobs due to trade. One extra trade-displaced worker is associated with the net employment falling by two extra workers relative to other locations. These unequal outcomes are in part due to the lack of worker mobility across locations.
Discussion Paper
Distributional Consequences of Trade for U.S. Consumers: Estimating Group-Specific Import Price Inflation
This note highlights the results of our project constructing import price indexes across different U.S. income deciles over the years 1998 to 2014.
Discussion Paper
The Dollar in the U.S. International Transactions (USIT) Model
The dollar's 20 percent climb against a broad index of foreign currencies since the middle of 2014 has led to an increased focus on how dollar fluctuations affect the U.S. economy. This note provides further detail on the structure and estimation of the trade block of the USIT model. In the context of the model, we present the estimated effect of a 10 percent dollar appreciation on U.S. trade flows and trade prices. We conclude with an assessment of the model's performance since the dollar began its steep appreciation in the summer of 2014.
Discussion Paper
What's Driving the Recent Slump in U.S. Imports?
In this post, we explore what has been driving the recent slump in U.S. imports of non-oil goods.
Discussion Paper
Do Low Interest Rates Decrease Commodity Price Volatility?
Commodity prices have been volatile over the past decade relative to the 1990s. Over the same period interest rates have also been relatively low, suggesting a possible connection.