Causes of the Global Trade Slowdown
This note analyzes the striking slowdown in world trade in recent years. After documenting key features of this slowdown, we assess its causes, including to what extent it reflects recent cyclical weakness in global growth versus underlying long-term structural shifts in the world economy.
Corporate Buybacks and Capital Investment: An International Perspective
In recent years, a great deal of attention has been paid in the United States to the simultaneous occurrence of relatively weak corporate capital investment (especially at this point in the business cycle) and historically elevated net share buybacks. Much of this commentary bemoans the fact that corporations are returning resources to shareholders instead of using them to boost capital investment, economic growth, and jobs.
How Vulnerable are EME Corporates?
This note provides an update on the health of EME corporates and examines the extent to which they are vulnerable to risks, including those that might be associated with monetary policy normalization in advanced economies.
A New Dataset of Macroprudential Policy Governance Structures
Governance structures are a critical part of a framework for implementing macroprudential policy, alongside methodologies for measuring and monitoring systemic risk, and analyses to understand the impact of policies that may be used to mitigate risk. As part of various research projects to study macroprudential policy frameworks, we have compiled a new dataset of governance structures in 58 countries. This note documents the construction of our dataset, including the decisions that we made concerning the countries and governance-structure facts to record in our dataset, and it discusses the ...
Foreign Competition and Domestic Jobs : Evidence from the U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance
Using data on the certified petitions for U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance, I document that international trade unevenly affects reallocation and employment across U.S. states. Job gains are precisely lower in the places that shed more jobs due to trade. One extra trade-displaced worker is associated with the net employment falling by two extra workers relative to other locations. These unequal outcomes are in part due to the lack of worker mobility across locations.
Milton Friedman and Data Adjustment
When empirically modelling the U.S. demand for money, Milton Friedman more than doubled the observed initial stock of money to account for a "changing degree of financial sophistication" in the United States relative to the United Kingdom. This note discusses effects of this adjustment on Friedman's empirical models.
Low-for-Long Interest Rates and Net Interest Margins of Banks in Advanced Foreign Economies
This note explores the empirical evidence between changes in interest rates and NIMs for different interest rate environments to discover the potential adverse effects of a low interest rate on bank NIMs. Using cross-country evidence can be insightful to assess a situation that is not so common in any individual country. Overall, the new empirical analysis shows that low rates are contributing to weaker NIMs and identifies an adverse effect that is materially larger when interest rates are low. It suggests that these effects can be material for banks in some key advanced foreign economies ...
Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy
Accordingly, in this note we analyze the drivers of EME capital flows, focusing in particular on the role of U.S. monetary policy and other potential factors in the decline in capital flows to EMEs since 2010.
The Sensitivity of the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate to Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations
This note summarizes recent work in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board on the relationship between movements in exchange rates and monetary policy expectations.
The Effect of Real Estate Prices on Chinese Bank Performance
This note examines how a major fall in real estate prices could affect banks' performances.