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Discussion Paper
How Vulnerable are EME Corporates?
This note provides an update on the health of EME corporates and examines the extent to which they are vulnerable to risks, including those that might be associated with monetary policy normalization in advanced economies.
Discussion Paper
Foreign Competition and Domestic Jobs : Evidence from the U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance
Using data on the certified petitions for U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance, I document that international trade unevenly affects reallocation and employment across U.S. states. Job gains are precisely lower in the places that shed more jobs due to trade. One extra trade-displaced worker is associated with the net employment falling by two extra workers relative to other locations. These unequal outcomes are in part due to the lack of worker mobility across locations.
Discussion Paper
Does Automation Drive the Labor Market?
In this note we question the emerging view that automation is a primary driver of wage and employment outcomes in labor markets.
Discussion Paper
Debt Statistics a la Carte : Alternative Recipes for Measuring Government Indebtedness
In this note, we apply our same measurement techniques to the debts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal and show that plausible alternative measures of indebtedness suggest that Greece is anywhere from as much as 50% more indebted, to as little as half as indebted as either Portugal or Ireland. We argue that most reasonable measures imply that Greece is far less indebted than is commonly reported, and that indebtedness levels across these three economies are roughly similar.
Discussion Paper
The Effects of Demographic Change on GDP Growth in OECD Economies
This note has evaluated the effects of demographic changes on economic growth performance of OECD countries and found that demographic changes account for a significant portion of growth slowdown in several of these economies in recent years.
Discussion Paper
Measuring Cross Country Monetary Policy Uncertainty
In previous work, we constructed a news-based index of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) that captures the degree of uncertainty the public perceives about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences. In this note, we extend that work to Canada, the Euro Area, Japan, and United Kingdom.
Discussion Paper
Drivers of Inflation Compensation: Evidence from Inflation Swaps in Advanced Economies
In this note, we provide a comparative analysis of inflation swaps for three advanced economies: the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom. We consider empirical proxies for energy prices, economic activity, exchange rates, and risky asset prices as potential drivers of inflation expectations and risk premiums in a regression framework.
Discussion Paper
Recent Euro-area Inflows into U.S. Bonds: Reconciling and Understanding New Data Sources
In this note we review the data on U.S. cross-border financial flows and positions with a focus on one question of current interest: have euro-area investors been increasing their holdings of U.S. securities since the possibility of European Central Bank quantitative easing (ECB QE) emerged in the latter half of 2014? The prospect of ECB QE, combined with the prospect of U.S. policy rate liftoff, suggested that U.S. interest rates would soon exceed euro-area rates by a wide margin, which might have provided an incentive for euro-area investors to seek higher-yielding U.S. assets, especially ...
Discussion Paper
Should We Be Concerned Again About U.S. Current Account Sustainability?
In this note, we compare the present situation to that prevailing in the mid-2000s, when concerns about the NIIP and the current account were at the forefront, and we examine the prospects for U.S. external sustainability going forward.
Discussion Paper
Understanding Global Volatility
In this note, we identify a global component of equity option-implied volatilities and address two questions: What are its fundamental drivers? And, given these drivers, are recent levels of volatility unexpectedly low?