Recent Euro-area Inflows into U.S. Bonds: Reconciling and Understanding New Data Sources
In this note we review the data on U.S. cross-border financial flows and positions with a focus on one question of current interest: have euro-area investors been increasing their holdings of U.S. securities since the possibility of European Central Bank quantitative easing (ECB QE) emerged in the latter half of 2014? The prospect of ECB QE, combined with the prospect of U.S. policy rate liftoff, suggested that U.S. interest rates would soon exceed euro-area rates by a wide margin, which might have provided an incentive for euro-area investors to seek higher-yielding U.S. assets, especially ...
The Effect of the GST on Indian Growth
This note first documents India's current tax system and describes the changes approved under the new GST legislation. Second, it analyzes the impact of the new GST on Indian GDP and welfare through the impact on domestic and international trade. Finally, this note examines the sensitivity of the growth and welfare outcomes under an alternative scenario of the GST bill.
What's Driving the Recent Slump in U.S. Imports?
In this post, we explore what has been driving the recent slump in U.S. imports of non-oil goods.
Recoveries and Trade : Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?
This note examines the connection between a country's exchange rate regime and the strength of its recovery from recessions.
The Surprising Strength of U.S. Imports During the Recovery
Import and exports of goods and services, after rebounding sharply in the immediate post-recession period, have more recently returned to a pace of growth more in line with their pre-recession averages.
Measuring Cross Country Monetary Policy Uncertainty
In previous work, we constructed a news-based index of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) that captures the degree of uncertainty the public perceives about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences. In this note, we extend that work to Canada, the Euro Area, Japan, and United Kingdom.
A New Dataset of Macroprudential Policy Governance Structures
Governance structures are a critical part of a framework for implementing macroprudential policy, alongside methodologies for measuring and monitoring systemic risk, and analyses to understand the impact of policies that may be used to mitigate risk. As part of various research projects to study macroprudential policy frameworks, we have compiled a new dataset of governance structures in 58 countries. This note documents the construction of our dataset, including the decisions that we made concerning the countries and governance-structure facts to record in our dataset, and it discusses the ...
Corporate Buybacks and Capital Investment: An International Perspective
In recent years, a great deal of attention has been paid in the United States to the simultaneous occurrence of relatively weak corporate capital investment (especially at this point in the business cycle) and historically elevated net share buybacks. Much of this commentary bemoans the fact that corporations are returning resources to shareholders instead of using them to boost capital investment, economic growth, and jobs.
Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?
The economic collapse in the wake of the global financial crises (GFC) and the weaker-than-expected recovery in many countries have led to questions about the impact of severe downturns on economic potential.
Did the West Coast Port Dispute Contribute to the First-Quarter GDP Slowdown?
In this post, we examine how the labor dispute at the West Coast ports, which began in the middle of 2014, might have affected GDP growth. Although the dispute started as early as July 2014, major disruptions to international trade did not surface until 2015:Q1. By that time, export and import growth through the West Coast ports in the first quarter were 14 percentage points to 20 percentage points lower than growth through other ports.