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Discussion Paper
An Early Evaluation of the Effects of the Pandemic on Living Arrangements and Household Formation
Garcia, Daniel; Paciorek, Andrew D.
As with many other aspects of life—including the record-setting decline in employment—the COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected the living arrangements of millions of Americans. In this note, we document a fact that has as yet received little attention:
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-08-07

Discussion Paper
New Financial Market Measures of the Neutral Real Rate and Inflation Expectations
Aronovich, Alex; Meldrum, Andrew C. (2020-08-03)
Long-term U.S. interest rates have fallen substantially over the last two decades. The 5-to-10-year nominal forward interest rate implied by the prices of U.S. Treasury securities is now about 7 percentage points lower than it was at the start of the 1990s.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-08-03

Discussion Paper
Principal Trading Firm Activity in Treasury Cash Markets
Harkrader, James Collin; Puglia, Michael (2020-08-04)
This FEDS Note aims to share insights on Treasury cash transactions reported in the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)'s Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE). Following earlier joint FEDS Notes and Liberty Street Economics blog posts that examined aggregate trading volume in the Treasury cash market across venues and security types, this post sheds light on the trading activity of Principal Trade Firms (PTFs) and other market participants that are not registered broker-dealer members of FINRA.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-08-04

Discussion Paper
The Cost Structure of Consumer Finance Companies and Its Implications for Interest Rates: Evidence from the Federal Reserve Board's 2015 Survey of Finance Companies
Chen, Lisa; Elliehausen, Gregory E.
Interest includes compensation not only for forbearance (forgoing current income for future income) and risk bearing but also compensation for expenses incurred to originate, service, and collect loans. The latter expenses are largely fixed, not varying much with the amount of credit.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-08-12

Discussion Paper
Are There Competitive Concerns in "Middle Market" Lending?
Benson, David; Onishi, Ken (2020-08-10)
This note analyzes competition and concentration in "middle market" lending using loan level data obtained from large bank holding companies' Y14 reports to the Federal Reserve. The middle market segment is typically considered to be credit for firms larger than small businesses but too small for large-scale commercial lending or syndicated credit. Lender choice and the supply of credit to large and small firms has been studied extensively by academics and policy makers.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-08-10

Discussion Paper
Comparing Means of Payment: What Role for a Central Bank Digital Currency?
Wong, Paul; Maniff, Jesse Leigh (2020-08-13)
This paper looks at the potential benefit that a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could provide in the context of existing payment mechanisms. Central banks today provide the primary payment mechanisms for trade and commerce: cash, used by the public, and electronic payment services, used by eligible financial institutions.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-08-13-2

Discussion Paper
Observations from the FooWire Project: Experimenting with DLT for Payments Use
Buttecali, Jillian; Proom, Zachary; Wong, Paul (2020-08-13)
In 2019, a team at the Federal Reserve Board (Board) conducted small-scale experimentation, named the "FooWire project," to build a payment system using distributed ledger technology (DLT). The team built the system using Hyperledger Fabric, a popular DLT platform, because it generally met the team's design requirements of a closed network, mature technology, and enterprise readiness.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-08-13-1

Discussion Paper
A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation
Ahn, Hie Joo; Chen, Han; Kister, Michael (2020-07-08)
The cyclical state of the economy and the natural rate of unemployment are key unobserved variables in policymakers' analysis of economic developments. The price Phillips curve relates the measures of resource utilization—often through deviations of the unemployment rate from the natural rate of unemployment—to consumer price inflation.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-07-08

Discussion Paper
Modeling the Global Effects of the COVID-19 Sudden Stop in Capital Flows
Akinci, Ozge; Benigno, Gianluca; Queraltó, Albert (2020-07-02)
The COVID-19 outbreak has triggered unusually fast outﬂows of dollar funding from emerging market economies (EMEs). These outflows are known as sudden stop episodes, and are typically followed by economic contractions.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-07-02

Discussion Paper
Dealer Inventory Constraints during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the Treasury Market and Broader Implications
Goldberg, Jonathan E.
Strains in the Treasury market in March indicated a decline in broker-dealer inventory capacity, which has historically predicted persistent reductions in market liquidity across asset classes, the availability of financing for non-financial firms, and real activity.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-07-17

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