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Working Paper
Monetary Policy Expectations, Fund Managers, and Fund Returns: Evidence from China
Ammer, John; Rogers, John; Wang, Gang; Yu, Yang (2020-06-25)
Although many central banks in the 21st century have become more transparent, Chinese monetary policy communications have been relatively opaque, making it more difficult for financial market participants to make decisions that depend on the future path of interest rates. We conduct a novel systematic textual analysis of the discussion in the quarterly reports of China fund managers, from which we infer their near-term expectations for monetary policy. We construct an aggregate index of manager expectations and show that, as a forecast of Chinese monetary policy, it compares favorably with ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1285

Working Paper
Inflation, Volatility, and Growth
Judson, Ruth; Orphanides, Athanasios
This paper re-examines the relationship between inflation, inflation volatility and growth using cross-country panel data for the past 30 years. With regard to the level of inflation, we find that in contrast to current findings which are based on cross-sectional time-average regression comparisons, exploiting the time dimension of the data reveals a strong negative correlation between inflation and income growth for all but very low inflation countries. To examine the role of inflation uncertainty on growth, we use intra-year inflation data to construct an annual measure of inflation ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-19

Working Paper
Household Saving and Portfolio Change: Evidence from the 1983-89 SCF Panel
Kennickell, Arthur B.; Starr-McCluer, Martha
There are very few sources of high-quality data on the dynamics of wealth accumulation. This paper uses newly-available data from the 1983-89 panel of the Survey of Consumer Finances to examine household saving and portfolio change over the 1980s. The 1983 SCF collected detailed information on households' assets, liabilities, income and other characteristics for a sample of 4,103 families. In 1989, 1,479 of these families were re-interviewed using a similar questionnaire. After describing the sample and methodology of the panel survey, we analyze changes in household wealth over the 1983-89 ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-18

Working Paper
Is "Learning-by-Exporting" Important? Micro-dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco
Clerides, Sofronis; Lach, Saul; Tybout, James
Is there any empirical evidence that firms become more efficient after becoming exporters? Do firms that become exporters generate positive spillovers for domestically-oriented producers in their industry or region? In this paper we analyze the causal links between exporting and productivity using firm-level panel data from three semi-industrialized economies. Representing export market participation and production costs as jointly dependent autoregressive processes, we look for evidence that firms' stochastic cost process shifts when they break into foreign markets. We find that relatively ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-30

Working Paper
The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation
Orphanides, Athanasios; Wilcox, David W.
This paper explores the theoretical foundations of a new approach to monetary policy. Proponents of this approach hold that when inflation is moderate but still above the long-run objective, the Fed should not take deliberate anti-inflation action, but rather should wait for external circumstances-such as favorable supply shocks and unforeseen recessions-to deliver the desired reduction in inflation. While waiting for such circumstances to arise, the Fed should aggressively resist incipient increases in inflation. This strategy has come to be known as "the opportunistic approach to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-24

Working Paper
The Subsidy Provided by the Federal Safety Net: Theory, Measurement, and Containment
Kwast, Myron L.; Passmore, Wayne
This paper presents an intuitive and analytical model of how the federal safety net affects banks' cost of funds. Emphasis is placed on distinguishing between fixed and marginal costs in banking and on the implications of the model for measuring the subsidy. Empirical results strongly suggest that the safety net has benefitted banks and that over recent years bank holding companies have tended to move activities into a bank or a bank subsidiary. We conclude that limiting extension of the safety net subsidy should be a serious concern when designing strategies for expanding bank activities.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1997-58

Working Paper
Fiscal Federalism and European Integration: Implications for Fiscal and Monetary Policies
Gramlich, Edward M.; Wood, Paul R.
This paper examines European economic integration in light of standard thinking about fiscal federalism. We first describe the main features of European integration, analyzing how institutions in the European Union fit the prescriptions of a federal system. We find that in some areas the European Union has already developed arrangements that fit standard views of fiscal federalism, in other areas there is gradual movement toward prescribed arrangements, and in still other areas the European Union s unique historical path may suggest some interesting new departures in the federalism ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 0694

Working Paper
The Community Reinvestment Act and the Profitability of Mortgage-Oriented Banks
Canner, Glenn B.; Passmore, Wayne
The Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) requires lenders ``to help meet the credit needs of the local communities in which they are chartered, consistent with the safe and sound operation of such institutions.'' For proponents of efficient markets, the CRA is a threat to lender profitability. For others, the CRA has the potential to increase profitability. We examine the relative profitability of commercial banks that specialize in mortgage lending in lower-income neighborhoods or to lower-income borrowers using three different techniques, and find that lenders active in lower-income ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1997-07

Working Paper
Why Are Estimates of Agricultural Supply Response so Variable?
Diebold, Francis X.; Lamb, Russell L.
Estimates of the response of agricultural supply to movements in expected price display curiously large variation across crops, regions, and time periods. We argue that this anomoly may be traced, at least in part, to the statistical properties of the commonly-used econometric estimator, which has infinite moments of all orders and may have a bimodal distribution. We propose an alternative minimum- expected-loss estimator, establish its improved sampling properties, and argue for its usefulness in the empirical analysis of agricultural supply response.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-08

Working Paper
Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads: An Empirical Analysis
Duffee, Gregory R.
This paper empirically examines the relation between the Treasury term structure and spreads of investment grade corporate bond yields over Treasuries. I find that noncallable bond yield spreads fall when the level of the Treasury term structure rises. The extent of this decline depends on the initial credit quality of the bond; the decline is small for Aaa-rated bonds and large for Baa-rated bonds. The role of the business cycle in generating this pattern is explored, as is the link between yield spreads and default risk. I also argue that yield spreads based on commonly-used bond yield ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-20

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