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Journal Article
An experimental index for the Business Outlook Survey: some preliminary findings
Trebing, Michael E. (2011-09)
The Philadelphia Fed?s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) receives considerable attention because it is viewed as both a regional and a national indicator of the anufacturing sector. The value of the survey as an important indicators is due, no doubt, to its unusual longevity (conducted monthly since 1968) and to the fact that manufacturing remains quite sensitive to shifts in overall economic activity. Several studies have shown that the survey?s indexes are useful in quantitatively estimating how the manufacturing sector is doing along a variety of dimension
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Sep

Working Paper
Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal
Stangebye, Zachary; Aguiar, Mark; Cole, Harold L.; Chatterjee, Satyajit (2017-03-27)
We revisit self-fulfilling rollover crises by introducing an alternative equilibrium selection that involves bond auctions at depressed but strictly positive equilibrium prices, a scenario in line with observed sovereign debt crises. We refer to these auctions as ?desperate deals?, the defining feature of which is a price schedule that makes the government indifferent to default or repayment. The government randomizes at the time of repayment, which we show can be implemented in pure strategies by introducing stochastic political payoffs or external bailouts. Quantitatively, auctions at ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-7

Working Paper
Growth effects of progressive taxes
Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Li, Wenli (2003)
The authors study the effects of progressive taxes in conventional endogenous growth models augmented to include heterogeneous households. In contrast to representative agent models with flat-rate taxes, this framework allows us to distinguish between marginal tax rates and the empirical proxies that are typically used for these rates such as the share of tax revenue, or government expenditures, in GDP. The analysis then illustrates how the endogenous nature of these proxy variables causes them to be weakly correlated, or even increase, with economic growth. This study, therefore, helps ...
Working Papers , Paper 03-15

Working Paper
Bayesian estimation of DSGE models
Guerron-Quintana, Pablo; Nason, James M. (2012)
We survey Bayesian methods for estimating dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models in this article. We focus on New Keynesian (NK)DSGE models because of the interest shown in this class of models by economists in academic and policy-making institutions. This interest stems from the ability of this class of DSGE model to transmit real, nominal, and fiscal and monetary policy shocks into endogenous fluctuations at business cycle frequencies. Intuition about these propagation mechanisms is developed by reviewing the structure of a canonical NKDSGE model. Estimation and evaluation of ...
Working Papers , Paper 12-4

Working Paper
LOCALIZED KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS: EVIDENCE FROM THE AGGLOMERATION OF AMERICAN R&D LABS AND PATENT DATA
Carlino, Gerald A.; Smith, Tony E.; Carr, Jake; Hunt, Robert M.; Buzard, Kristy (2016-10-13)
Supercedes 15-03 We employ a unique data set to examine the spatial clustering of private R&D labs. Instead of using fixed spatial boundaries, we develop a new procedure for identifying the location and size of specific R&D clusters. Thus, we are better able to identify the spatial locations of clusters at various scales, such as a half mile, 1 mile, 5 miles, and more. Assigning patents and citations to these clusters, we capture the geographic extent of knowledge spillovers within them. Our tests show that the localization of knowledge spillovers, as measured via patent citations, is ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-25

Discussion Paper
The Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and Bank Branching Patterns
Reid, Carolina; Ding, Lei (2019-09-10)
This paper examines the relationship between the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and bank branching patterns, measured by the risk of branch closure and the net loss of branches at the neighborhood level, in the aftermath of Great Recession. Between 2009 and 2017, there was a larger decline in the number of bank branches in lower-income neighborhoods than in more affluent ones, raising concerns about access to mainstream financial services. However, once we control for supply and demand factors that influence bank branching decisions, we find generally consistent evidence that the CRA is ...
Community Affairs Discussion Paper , Paper 19-1

Speech
An Economic Outlook - The Wharton School
Harker, Patrick T. (2017-02-21)
I can?t formulate education policy, or allocate funds, or even make my own children study what I want them to ? although, of course, I?m immensely proud of them and they?ve made excellent choices without listening to me. But I can point to the research and what the data say. Changing our approach to how we invest in education and training won?t take care of the entire student debt issue, but it can help those who are disproportionately affected by it.
Speech , Paper 137

Working Paper
The impact of domestic market structure on exchange rate pass-through
Mohamed, Ahmed H. (1990)
Working Papers , Paper 90-25

Discussion Paper
How effective were the financial safety nets in the aftermath of Katrina?
Rhine, Sherrie L. W.; Cheney, Julia S. (2006)
This paper describes the U.S. financial system?s response to the destruction caused by Hurricane Katrina and examines how financial safety nets helped meet consumers? needs in the aftermath of the storm. Overall, we find that consumers who hold deposit accounts at financial institutions are less vulnerable to financial disruptions than individuals who do not have either a checking or a savings account (the unbanked). The federal banking regulators? and financial institutions? responses to Hurricane Katrina, the financial vulnerability of unbanked families to this unexpected catastrophic ...
Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers , Paper 06-01

Briefing
Is Urban Cool Cooling New Jersey’s Job Market?
Haswell, Ethan; Scavette, Adam (2016-10)
Since 2000, employment in New Jersey has slowed considerably compared with its relatively steady growth in the late 1980s through the 1990s. As of the second quarter of 2015, New Jersey?s total payroll employment was less than 1 percent greater than it was in the first quarter of 2000.
Research Brief , Issue Q4

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