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Journal Article
Tracking productivity in real time
Kahn, James A.; Rich, Robert W. (2006-11)
Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 12 , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Issues in corporate governance
McDonough, William J. (2002-09)
On September 29, 2002, William J. McDonough, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delivered the William Taylor Memorial Lecture in Washington, D.C., at an event cosponsored by the William Taylor Memorial Fund and the Group of Thirty, a private, international consultative group on economic and monetary affairs. In his lecture, Mr. McDonough describes the actions already taken by private and public sector groups to strengthen corporate governance and accounting standards and identifies areas where reforms are still needed.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 8 , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules
Fair, Ray C. (2001-03)
A popular way to approximate Federal Reserve policy is through the use of estimated interest rate equations, or policy "rules." In these rules, the dependent variable is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve is assumed to control and the explanatory variables are those factors assumed to affect Federal Reserve behavior. This article presents estimates of such a rule, using data from 1954:1-1999:3 but omitting the 1979:4-1982:3 period, when monetary targets were emphasized. Although the estimated coefficient on inflation is found to be larger in the post-1982 period, the difference is ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Mar , Pages 61-72

Discussion Paper
How Has COVID-19 Affected Banking System Vulnerability?
Fringuellotti, Fulvia; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Duarte, Fernando M.; Kovner, Anna; Blickle, Kristian S.; Crosignani, Matteo (2020-11-16)
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in banks’ balance sheets. To understand how these changes have affected the stability of the U.S. banking system, we provide an update of four analytical models that aim to capture different aspects of banking system vulnerability.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201116

Discussion Paper
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— September 2023
Del Negro, Marco; Gundam, Pranay; Lee, Donggyu; Nallamotu, Ramya; Pacula, Brian (2023-09-22)
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2023. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230922

Journal Article
Index amortizing rate swaps
Galaif, Lisa N. (1993-01)
As short-term interest rates have declined over the past several years, investors have increasingly sought higher yielding investment vehicles. The index amortizing rate (IAR) swap is one of several new instruments that have been developed in response to this investor demand for yield enhancement. This article explains the structure and pricing of IAR swaps, some of the risks associated with the product, and the uses and growth prospects of the market.
Quarterly Review , Volume 18 , Issue Win , Pages 63-70

Report
Do banks follow their customers abroad?
Nolle, Daniel E.; Seth, Rama (1996)
The market share of U.S. business loans made by foreign-owned banks has increased dramatically since 1980. At the same time, foreign direct investment in the U.S. rose, so that much of the increase in foreign-owned U.S.-based bank lending to businesses in the U.S. could conceivably be accounted for by an increase in loans to the U.S. affiliates of firms headquartered abroad, an expectation in line with the conventional wisdom that bans "follow their customers" abroad. Our study investigates the lending patterns of U.S.-based banks from Japan, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and ...
Research Paper , Paper 9620

Report
What moves investment? Cash flows in a forward-looking model of capital expenditures
Wizman, Thierry A. (1992)
Research Paper , Paper 9201

Report
Time variation in asset price responses to macro announcements
Grisse, Christian; Goldberg, Linda S. (2013-08-01)
Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high-frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011. Significant time variation in news effects is present for those announcements that have the largest effects on asset prices. The time variation in effects is explained by economic conditions, including the level of policy rates at the time of the news release, and risk conditions: Government bond yields ...
Staff Reports , Paper 626

Report
Real-time search in the laboratory and the market
Brown, Meta; Flinn, Christopher J.; Schotter, Andrew (2009)
While widely accepted models of labor market search imply a constant reservation wage policy, the empirical evidence strongly suggests that reservation wages decline in the duration of search. This paper reports the results of the first real-time-search laboratory experiment. The controlled environment that subjects face is stationary, and the payoff-maximizing reservation wage is constant. Nevertheless, subjects' reservation wages decline sharply over time. We investigate two hypotheses to explain this decline: 1) searchers respond to the stock of accruing search costs, and 2) searchers ...
Staff Reports , Paper 410

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