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Journal Article
Price stability and regional diversity
Hoskins, W. Lee (1991-05)
An argument against using short-term monetary policy to alleviate regional economic shocks and an analysis of how regional economic diversity lends strength to the goal of price stability as the Federal Reserve System's sole monetary policy focus.
Economic Commentary , Issue May

Journal Article
Fiscal policy and fickle fortunes: what’s luck got to do with it?
Altig, David E. (2000-04)
The author contends that luck has played a major role in the fiscal fortunes of the 1990s. He (along with many others) is therefore concerned about the unquestioned presumption that projected budget surpluses are as good as achieved. Such a presumption, he says, is a shaky foundation from which to launch major new budget initiatives.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Working Paper
Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade
McCallum, Andrew H.; Krolikowski, Pawel (2016-12-23)
We present a tractable framework that embeds goods-market frictions in a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporters and identical importers. These frictions arise because it takes time and expense for exporters and importers to meet. We show that search frictions lead to an endogenous fraction of unmatched exporters, alter the gains from trade, endogenize entry costs, and imply that the competitive equilibrium does not generally result in the socially optimal number of searching firms. Finally, ignoring search frictions results in biased estimates of the effect of tariffs ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1635

Working Paper
A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long-Run Inflation Expectations
Koop, Gary; Chan, Joshua C. C.; Clark, Todd E. (2015-10-21)
A knowledge of the level of trend inflation is key to many current policy decisions, and several methods of estimating trend inflation exist. This paper adds to the growing literature which uses survey-based long-run forecasts of inflation to estimate trend inflation. We develop a bivariate model of inflation and long-run forecasts of inflation which allows for the estimation of the link between trend inflation and the long-run forecast. Thus, our model allows for the possibilities that long-run forecasts taken from surveys can be equated with trend inflation, that the two are completely ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1520

Working Paper
Late Payment Fees and Nonpayment in Rental Markets, and Implications for Inflation Measurement: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence
Janson, Wesley; Verbrugge, Randal J. (2023-11-06)
Accurate rent measurement is essential for constructing a consumer price index (CPI) and for measuring household welfare. Late payment fees and nonpayment of rent are common components of rental expenditures and thus belong in CPIs. Late payment fees are often excluded; we offer a novel critique. In the US CPI, nonpayment is ostensibly included, but, we show, severely undermeasured. Moreover, the manner of its inclusion renders the CPI extremely sensitive to nonpayment variations; we show how to fix this. Nonpayment undermeasurement suggests at least a +1 ppt overestimate in 2020 CPI shelter ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-22R2

Report
Providing Labor Market Context for Debt-Related Driver’s License Suspensions in Ohio
Fee, Kyle; Mikelbank, Brian A. (2024-02-28)
More than 60 percent of Ohio’s driver’s license suspensions do not stem from bad driving; instead, they arise because the driver owes an unpaid debt. Debt-related suspensions (DRS) could prevent people from getting to work where they could make the money needed to repay the debt. In this report, we investigate whether DRS has implications for Ohio’s labor force.
Community Development Publications

Journal Article
The outlook: no boom, no doom
Leovic, Lydia K.; Erceg, John J. (1991-12)
A summation of the forecasts of 25 economists meeting at the October 1991 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with the consensus that a mild recovery is under way.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Nondeliverable forwards: can we tell where the renminbi is headed?
Humpage, Owen F.; Higgins, Patrick C. (2005-09)
Since the early 1990s, international banks have been offering nondeliverable forward (NDF) contracts to clients who need to hedge exposures in currencies of emerging-market economies. Many also use the exchange rate on these contracts as a best guess of where the emerging-market currency is headed. The exchange rates on NDFs, however, likely embody a substantial risk premium that interferes with forecasting accuracy.
Economic Commentary , Issue Sep

Journal Article
\"Don't panic\": a primer on airline deregulation
Bauer, Paul W. (1986-10)
A summary of the theory behind airline deregulation, and a look at the future evolution of the airline industry as it adapts to its new environment.
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 17-24

Journal Article
Beneath the rhetoric: clarifying the debate on mortgage lending discrimination
Peters, Stephen R.; Longhofer, Stanley D. (1998-10)
The authors' simple model of the mortgage underwriting process provides a framework within which to define discrimination and various notions of the default rate. By providing those with differing views a common framework for discussing their positions, the model clarifies and reconciles some of the most controversial issues in the debate over mortgage discrimination. It also shows how this theoretical framework can help in the design of practical policy responses to this vexing social problem.
Economic Review , Volume 34 , Issue Q IV , Pages 2-13

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