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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 

Conference Paper
The health care challenge: some perspectives from behavioral economics

National health care goals generally include providing broad access to appropriate amounts of high-quality health care at appropriate cost to the ultimate payers. Yet all countries, regardless of how they deliver and finance health care, struggle to achieve a sustainable balance among the implicit tradeoffs. Does this struggle stem from the limited scope for competition in health care or from information asymmetries? Or does it simply reflect the inherent difficulty of measuring health care output and quality? Alternatively, does it result from deep-seated human behavior - a tendency for ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 50 , Issue Jun , Pages 61-75

Briefing
Getting to Work in New England: Commuting Patterns across the Region

Commuting is nearly ubiquitous across New England. Employers in cities and towns large and small depend on workers who commute from communities near and far. Communities, in turn, rely on employers located in cities and towns scattered in every direction to provide jobs for their residents. Workers may choose to live in a city other than where they work for a host of reasons, including housing and transportation options, school preferences, and work locations of a partner or spouse. This Regional Brief analyzes data on current commuting patterns, using 2022 New England data primarily. While ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2025-2

Journal Article
Techno babel: the technology-driven economy

Regional Review , Issue Fall , Pages 18-24

Working Paper
Forecasting U.S. Economic Activity with a Small Information Set

We provide a parsimonious setup for forecasting U.S. GDP growth and the unemployment rate based on a few fundamental drivers. This setup yields forecasts that are reasonably accurate compared with private-sector and Federal Reserve forecasts over the 1984–2019 and post COVID-19 pandemic periods. This result is achieved by jointly estimating the processes for GDP growth and the unemployment rate, with the constraint that GDP and unemployment follow Okun’s law in first differences. This setup can be easily extended to replace the variables in the information set with factors that might ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-4

Working Paper
Technological innovation in mortgage underwriting and the growth in credit, 1985–2015

The application of information technology to finance, or ?fintech,? is expected to revolutionize many aspects of borrowing and lending in the future, but technology has been reshaping consumer and mortgage lending for many years. During the 1990s, computerization allowed mortgage lenders to reduce loan-processing times and largely replace human-based assessments of credit risk with default predictions generated by sophisticated empirical models. Debt-to-income ratios at origination add little to the predictive power of these models, so the new automated underwriting systems allowed higher ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-11

Journal Article
Banking unbanked immigrants through remittances

High service fees for sending money abroad can be a financial strain for low and moderate-income immigrants. George Samuels explores how some mainstream financial institutions are offering competitive pricing for the service and, as a result, are banking a new set of customers.
Communities and Banking , Issue Fall , Pages 3-8

Conference Paper
Seismic shifts: the economic impact of demographic change: an overview

Most economic developments are hard to predict. Considerable uncertainty surrounds forecasts for output growth, inflation, and unemployment a year from now, for instance. But demographic developments are different in this respect. Although demographic surprises abound, the major trends build slowly, and the broad contours of medium-term outcomes become discernible well in advance.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 46

Conference Paper
New financial world: policy shortcomings and remedies

Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 42 , Issue Jun , Pages 359-370

Conference Paper
Hysteresis in unemployment - comments

Larry Ball's paper contains two basic ideas. The first is a second generation Phillips Curve which relates changes in inflation to the level of the unemployment rate and the second is the idea that monetary policy has extremely persistent effects on the unemployment rate, well beyond effects over the business cycle.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Discussion Paper
Subprime facts: what (we think) we know about the subprime crisis and what we don’t

Using a variety of datasets, we document some basic facts about the current subprime crisis. Many of these facts are applicable to the crisis at a national level, while some illustrate problems relevant only to Massachusetts and New England. We conclude by discussing some outstanding questions about which the data, we believe, are not yet conclusive.
Public Policy Discussion Paper , Paper 08-2

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