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Working Paper
Total Recall? Evaluating the Macroeconomic Knowledge of Large Language Models
Crane, Leland D.; Karra, Akhil; Soto, Paul E.
(2025-06-25)
We evaluate the ability of large language models (LLMs) to estimate historical macroeconomic variables and data release dates. We find that LLMs have precise knowledge of some recent statistics, but performance degrades as we go farther back in history. We highlight two particularly important kinds of recall errors: mixing together first print data with subsequent revisions (i.e., smoothing across vintages) and mixing data for past and future reference periods (i.e., smoothing within vintages). We also find that LLMs can often recall individual data release dates accurately, but aggregating ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2025-044
Working Paper
Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) model of the U.S. economy: 2010 version
Laforte, Jean-Philippe; Kiley, Michael T.; Chung, Hess T.
(2010)
This paper provides documentation for a large-scale estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy--the Federal Reserve Board's Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (FRB/EDO) model project. The model can be used to address a wide range of practical policy questions on a routine basis. The paper discusses the model's specification, estimated parameters, and key properties.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2010-29
Working Paper
Efficient computation of stochastic coefficients models
Swamy, P. A. V. B.; Chang, I-Lok; Hallahan, Charles
(1990)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 132
Working Paper
Does distance matter in banking?
Wolken, John D.; Brevoort, Kenneth P.
(2008)
Deregulation and technological change have reduced the transactions costs that led to the dominance of local financial service suppliers, leading some to question if distance still matters in banking. This debate has been particularly acute in small business banking, where transactions costs are believed to be particularly high. This paper provides a detailed review of the literature on distance in banking markets, highlighting the reasons why geographic proximity is believed to be important and examining the changes that may have affected its importance. Relying on new data from the 2003 ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2008-34
Working Paper
Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy
Roberts, John M.
(1998)
New Keynesian models with sticky prices and rational expectations have a difficult time explaining why reducing inflation usually requires a recession. An explanation for the costliness of reducing inflation is that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational. To explore this possibility, I estimate the degree of nonrationality implicit in two survey measures of inflation expectations. I find that the surveys reflect an intermediate degree of rationality: Expectations are nether perfectly rational nor as unsophisticated as simple autoregressive models would suggest. I also find ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 1998-43
Working Paper
The Optimal Inflation Rate with Discount Factor Heterogeneity
Lepetit, Antoine
(2018-12)
This paper shows that deviations from long-run price stability are optimal in the presence of price stickiness whenever profit and utility flows are discounted at a different rate. In that case, a monetary authority acting under commitment will choose a path for the inflation rate that ends with a non-zero value. Such a property is relevant in a wide range of macroeconomic environments. I first illustrate this by studying optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with a perpetual youth structure. In this setting, profit flows are discounted more heavily than utility flows and the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2018-086
Working Paper
Domestic Lending and the Pandemic: How Does Banks' Exposure to Covid-19 Abroad Affect Their Lending in the United States?
Temesvary, Judit; Wei, Andrew
(2021-08-24)
We study how U.S. banks' exposure to the economic fallout due to governments' response to Covid-19 in foreign countries has affected their credit provision to borrowers in the United States. We combine a rarely accessed dataset on U.S. banks' cross-border exposure to borrowers in foreign countries with the most detailed regulatory ("credit registry") data that is available on their U.S.-based lending. We compare the change in the U.S. lending of banks that are more vs. less exposed to the pandemic abroad, during and after the onset of Covid-19 in 2020. We document strong spillover effects: ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2021-056
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FILTER BY Keywords
Monetary policy 487 items
Econometric models 256 items
Inflation (Finance) 204 items
Bank loans 184 items
Interest rates 183 items
Monetary policy - United States 165 items
economic conditions - United States 151 items
International trade 135 items
Consumer behavior 134 items
Prices 134 items
Consumer credit 129 items
Mortgages 126 items
Banks and banking 125 items
Foreign exchange rates 124 items
Risk management 124 items
Greenspan, Alan 119 items
Business cycles 113 items
Risk 109 items
Credit 105 items
International finance 105 items
Payment systems 105 items
Bank supervision 103 items
Financial markets 103 items
Forecasting 94 items
Federal Open Market Committee 92 items
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 88 items
Bank capital 85 items
Financial crises 85 items
Fiscal policy 84 items
Productivity 84 items
Bank reserves 79 items
Consumption (Economics) 78 items
Bank deposits 73 items
Bank profits 73 items
Inflation 73 items
Financial stability 71 items
Government securities 68 items
Money supply 68 items
Labor market 67 items
Wages 64 items
Over-the-counter markets 62 items
Saving and investment 62 items
Unemployment 60 items
Consumer surveys 58 items
Balance of payments 57 items
Regulation Z: Truth in Lending 56 items
Economic forecasting 55 items
Electronic funds transfers 54 items
Money 54 items
Federal Reserve System 53 items
Federal funds rate 53 items
Stock - Prices 53 items
Stock market 52 items
Uncertainty 52 items
Mortgage loans 51 items
Corporations - Finance 50 items
Macroeconomics 50 items
Capital investments 49 items
Housing - Prices 49 items
Taxation 49 items
Employment 48 items
Exports 48 items
Liquidity (Economics) 48 items
Capital market 47 items
Financial institutions 47 items
Investments 46 items
Japan 46 items
Banking law 45 items
Industrial productivity 45 items
Labor supply 45 items
Bank mergers 43 items
Business conditions 42 items
Federal Reserve 42 items
Laware, John Patrick 42 items
Small business 42 items
Banks and banking - Accounting 41 items
Banking market 40 items
Financial services industry 40 items
Phillips curve 40 items
Regulation Y: Bank Holding Companies and Change in Bank Control 40 items
Bank holding companies 39 items
Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 39 items
Income 39 items
Consumer protection 38 items
Credit cards 38 items
Derivative securities 38 items
Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 38 items
Housing - Finance 38 items
Securities 38 items
Banks and banking - Service charges 37 items
Capital movements 37 items
Econometrics 37 items
Federal Reserve banks - Service charges 37 items
Liquidity 37 items
Dollar, American 36 items
Imports 36 items
Capital 35 items
Debt 35 items
time series analysis 35 items
Banking structure 34 items
Consumer Advisory Council 34 items
Economic conditions 34 items
Developing countries 33 items
Clearinghouses (Banking) 32 items
Economic development 32 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 32 items
Banks 31 items
Employment (Economic theory) 31 items
Globalization 31 items
Housing 31 items
Industrial capacity 31 items
Inequality 31 items
Basel capital accord 30 items
Discount 30 items
Monetary Policy 30 items
Regulation B: Equal Credit Opportunity 30 items
Regulation CC: Availability of Funds and Collection of Checks 30 items
Wealth 30 items
Systemic risk 29 items
Asset pricing 28 items
Banks and banking, International 28 items
Budget 28 items
Deposit insurance 28 items
COVID-19 27 items
Economics 27 items
Federal Reserve banks - Profits 27 items
Investments, Foreign 27 items
Regulation E: Electronic Fund Transfers 27 items
Technology 27 items
War finance 27 items
Federal Reserve banks - Costs 26 items
Expenditures, Public 25 items
Real property 25 items
Regulation D: Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions 25 items
Regulation T: Credit by Brokers and Dealers 25 items
Social security 25 items
Stocks 25 items
Mexico 24 items
Labor productivity 23 items
War - Economic aspects 23 items
Asset-backed financing 22 items
Bank failures 22 items
Banking 22 items
Effective lower bound 22 items
Germany 22 items
Volatility 22 items
Volcker, Paul A. 22 items
Bank management 21 items
Banks and banking, Central 21 items
Bonds 21 items
Households - Economic aspects 21 items
Human capital 21 items
Regulation C: Home Mortgage Disclosure 21 items
Regulation H: Membership of State Banking Institutions in the Federal Reserve System 21 items
Bank lending 20 items
Hedge funds 20 items
International economic relations 20 items
Investment 20 items
Open market operations 20 items
Discount window 19 items
Education 19 items
Foreclosure 19 items
Futures 19 items
Regulation 19 items
Savings and loan associations 19 items
Angell, Wayne D. 18 items
Bank competition 18 items
Brokers 18 items
Budget deficits 18 items
Education - Economic aspects 18 items
Inflation expectations 18 items
Money market 18 items
Truth in Lending Act 18 items
Agricultural credit 17 items
Bankruptcy 17 items
Competition 17 items
Federal Reserve banks - Directors 17 items
Federal funds market (United States) 17 items
Foreign exchange 17 items
Household finance 17 items
Regulation G: Disclosure and Reporting of CRA-Related Agreements 17 items
Thrift Institutions Advisory Council 17 items
Check collection systems 16 items
Emerging markets 16 items
Federal Reserve District, 2nd 16 items
Federal Reserve banks 16 items
Forward guidance 16 items
Heterogeneous agents 16 items
Johnson, Manuel H. 16 items
Mutual funds 16 items
Pensions 16 items
Retirement 16 items
Trade 16 items
Zero lower bound 16 items
Agriculture - Economic aspects 15 items
Balance of trade 15 items
Bank assets 15 items
Bayesian estimation 15 items
Checks 15 items
Climate change 15 items
Community banks 15 items
Consumption 15 items
Corporate bonds 15 items
Discrimination 15 items
Economic policy 15 items
Financial crisis 15 items
Gold reserves 15 items
Great Britain 15 items
Interstate banking 15 items
Inventories 15 items
Learning 15 items
Mullins, David W. 15 items
Recessions 15 items
Regulation X: Borrowers of Securities Credit 15 items
Retail trade 15 items
Subprime mortgage 15 items
Surveys 15 items
Aggregate risk 14 items
Branch banks 14 items
Collateral 14 items
Commercial real estate 14 items
Computers 14 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 14 items
Financial literacy 14 items
Government-sponsored enterprises 14 items
Great Recession 14 items
Housing boom 14 items
Incomplete information 14 items
Lindsey, Lawrence 14 items
Manufactures 14 items
Monetary theory 14 items
Mortgages and credit 14 items
Regulation DD: Truth in Savings 14 items
Statistics 14 items
Unconventional monetary policy 14 items
Welfare 14 items
Year 2000 date conversion (Computer systems) 14 items
Banks and banking, Foreign - United States 13 items
Community development 13 items
Consolidation and merger of corporations 13 items
Credit supply 13 items
Discretion 13 items
Flow of funds 13 items
Income distribution 13 items
Industrial production index 13 items
Insurance 13 items
Kelley, Edward Watson 13 items
Margins (Security trading) 13 items
Medicare 13 items
Monetary policy transmission 13 items
Production (Economic theory) 13 items
Seger, Martha Romayne 13 items
Unemployment insurance 13 items
Asymmetric loss function 12 items
Bank Lending 12 items
Banks and banking, American 12 items
Business Cycles 12 items
China 12 items
Commercial loans 12 items
Debts, External 12 items
Discrimination in consumer credit 12 items
Federal Reserve District, 1st 12 items
Financial Frictions 12 items
Financial crises - Asia 12 items
Financial leverage 12 items
GDP growth 12 items
Industries 12 items
Inflation targeting 12 items
Information technology 12 items
Machine learning 12 items
Monetary policy implementation 12 items
Regulation K: International Banking Operations 12 items
Securitization 12 items
Stock returns 12 items
Swaps (Finance) 12 items
Symmetric loss function 12 items
small business finance 12 items
Agricultural industries - Finance 11 items
Automated tellers 11 items
Automobile industry and trade 11 items
Bank of Credit and Commerce International 11 items
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) - Members 11 items
Climate-related risk 11 items
Cointegration 11 items
Economics - Study and teaching 11 items
Federal Reserve District, 11th 11 items
Federal Reserve District, 12th 11 items
Federal Reserve District, 7th 11 items
Gross domestic product 11 items
Home equity loans 11 items
Homeownership 11 items
Macroprudential policy 11 items
Nomination 11 items
Overdrafts 11 items
Sovereign default 11 items
Stablecoins 11 items
Stocks - Rate of return 11 items
Trade war 11 items
Vector autoregression 11 items
bond markets 11 items
capital asset pricing model 11 items
Basel III 10 items
Business enterprises 10 items
Canada 10 items
Corporate governance 10 items
Credit risk 10 items
Defense industries 10 items
Entrepreneurship 10 items
Expectations 10 items
FOMC 10 items
Federal Reserve District, 5th 10 items
Federal Reserve District, 9th 10 items
Global value chains 10 items
Gold 10 items
Great inflation 10 items
Gross national product 10 items
Inflation dynamics 10 items
Money laundering 10 items
Mortgage lending 10 items
Mortgage-backed securities 10 items
Rare disasters 10 items
Real-time data 10 items
Repo 10 items
Volcker 10 items
liquidity 10 items
monetary policy 10 items
state finances 10 items
Agricultural productivity 9 items
Arbitrage 9 items
Asymmetric information 9 items
Bank Secrecy Act 9 items
Central bank balance sheet 9 items
Central bank digital currency 9 items
Central counterparties 9 items
Coinage 9 items
Commercial paper issues 9 items
Corporate profits 9 items
Covenants 9 items
Debts, Public 9 items
Economic indicators 9 items
Economic stabilization 9 items
Expedited Funds Availability Act of 1987 9 items
Federal Reserve District, 10th 9 items
Federal Reserve District, 3rd 9 items
Federal Reserve District, 4th 9 items
Federal Reserve District, 6th 9 items
Federal Reserve District, 8th 9 items
Fedwire 9 items
Finance 9 items
Finance, Personal 9 items
Financial Stability 9 items
Financial services industry - Law and legislation 9 items
Foreign exchange - Law and legislation 9 items
Government debt 9 items
Growth 9 items
Loans, Foreign 9 items
Local government 9 items
Manufacturing 9 items
Monetary policy tools 9 items
Natural Language Processing 9 items
Portfolio choice 9 items
Portfolio management 9 items
Rate of return 9 items
Spillovers 9 items
Stress tests 9 items
Trade finance 9 items
Treasury bills 9 items
bank examinations 9 items
financial crisis 9 items
non-bank activities 9 items
zero lower bound 9 items
Agricultural prices 8 items
Bank disintermediation 8 items
Bank investments 8 items
Business cycle 8 items
Construction 8 items
Consumers 8 items
Corporations 8 items
Debt Contract Enforcement 8 items
European Economic Community 8 items
European Monetary System (Organization) 8 items
Financial risk management 8 items
Firm dynamics 8 items
Funding for lending 8 items
Institutional investors 8 items
Interest 8 items
Labor force participation 8 items
Manufacturing industries 8 items
Market liquidity 8 items
Misallocation 8 items
Mobility 8 items
Monetary policy - Japan 8 items
Money theory 8 items
Natural hazards and disasters 8 items
OPEC Announcements 8 items
Poverty 8 items
Private Equity Funds 8 items
Regulation A: Extensions of Credit by Federal Reserve Banks 8 items
Regulation M: Consumer Leasing 8 items
Search and matching 8 items
Structural Topic Models 8 items
Trade uncertainty 8 items
Traders’ Positions 8 items
Vulnerability to climate impacts 8 items
options 8 items
Amenities 7 items
Ancillary products 7 items
Auctions 7 items
Bank risk 7 items
Banks and banking - Costs 7 items
Central banking 7 items
Consumer goods 7 items
Cost of living adjustments 7 items
Covid-19 7 items
Credit ratings 7 items
Debt cancellation agreements 7 items
Default 7 items
Demand for money 7 items
Dollar 7 items
Dynamic factor model 7 items
Economic history 7 items
Euro area 7 items
Exchange rates 7 items
Fair lending 7 items
Federal government 7 items
Ferguson, Roger W. 7 items
Financial intermediation 7 items
GAP 7 items
GAP insurance 7 items
GAP waiver 7 items
Global financial crisis 7 items
Great Depression 7 items
Hedging (Finance) 7 items
Heller, H. Robert 7 items
Heterogeneity 7 items
House prices 7 items
Housing supply 7 items
Hysteresis 7 items
International Spillovers 7 items
International Trade 7 items
Job quality 7 items
Kalman filter 7 items
Menu costs 7 items
Monopolistic competition 7 items
Mortgage 7 items
Open Economy Macroeconomics 7 items
Pandemic 7 items
Panel Data Estimation 7 items
Payment system 7 items
Petroleum industry and trade 7 items
Quantitative easing 7 items
Research and development 7 items
Risk assessment 7 items
Rules 7 items
Runs 7 items
Safe assets 7 items
Student loans 7 items
Tail Risk 7 items
Time to plan 7 items
Trade policy 7 items
Transparency 7 items
Treasury market 7 items
Vehicle financing 7 items
Well-being 7 items
Administrative data 6 items
Asia 6 items
Asset prices 6 items
Asset purchases 6 items
Bank capital - Law and legislation 6 items
Bank fraud 6 items
Bank regulation 6 items
Banks and banking - Japan 6 items
Bayesian methods 6 items
Bernanke, Ben S. 6 items
Bunching 6 items
Capacity 6 items
Construction industry 6 items
Consumer credit - Law and legislation 6 items
Corporate debt 6 items
Corporations - Accounting 6 items
Countercyclical policy 6 items
DSGE models 6 items
Debit cards 6 items
Difference-in-differences 6 items
Disclosure of information 6 items
Discrimination in mortgage loans 6 items
Dividends 6 items
Economic forecasting - United States 6 items
Effective Lower Bound 6 items
Equity premium 6 items
Federal Reserve Act 6 items
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve System 6 items
Federal funds 6 items
Federal funds market 6 items
Finance, Public 6 items
Financial Crises 6 items
Financial Crisis 6 items
Financial crises - Mexico 6 items
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