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Working Paper
Pre-announcement effects, news, and volatility: monetary policy and the stock market
Bomfim, AntĂșlio N.
(2000)
I examine pre-announcement and news effects on the stock market in the context of public disclosure of monetary policy decisions. The results suggest that the stock market tends to be relatively quiet--conditional volatility is abnormally low--on days preceding regularly scheduled policy announcements. Although this calming effect is routinely reported in anecdotal press accounts, it is statistically significant only over the past four to five years, a result that I attribute to changes in the Federal Reserve's disclosure practices in early 1994. The paper also looks at how the actual ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2000-50
Working Paper
Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence
Hooker, Mark A.
(1997)
This paper analyzes tests of the Cagan hyperinflation-money demand model that have several advantages relative to those in the literature. They do not confound specification error with rational bubbles, are implementable with a linear procedure, and are frequently able to detect periodically collapsing bubbles that have challenged existing tests. After a Monte Carlo analysis, the tests are applied to data from hyperinflations in Austria, Germany, Hungary, and Poland. Strong evidence of model misspecification is found for Austria, while the model with a rational, explosive component well ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 1997-49
Working Paper
The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations
Williams, John C.; Orphanides, Athanasios
(2004)
We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s and 1970s on the formation of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes. We find that the combination of monetary policy directed at tight stabilization of unemployment near its perceived natural rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted heretofore quiescent inflation ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 804
Working Paper
Commodity price movements in a general equilibrium model of storage
Leduc, Sylvain; Arseneau, David M.
(2012)
We embed the canonical rational expectations competitive storage model into a general equilibrium framework thereby allowing the non-linear commodity price dynamics implied by the competitive storage model to interact with the broader macroeconomy. Our main result is that the endogenous movement in interest rates implied under general equilibrium enhances the effects of competitive storage on commodity prices. Compared to a model in which the real interest rate is fixed, we find that storage in general equilibrium leads to more persistence in commodity prices and somewhat lower volatility. ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1054
Working Paper
Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account
Glick, Reuven; Rogoff, Kenneth S.
(1993)
For G-7 countries over the period 1961-1990, there appears to be a strong and stable negative correlation between annual changes in the current account and investment. Here we explore this correlation using a highly tractable empirical model that distinguishes between global and country-specific shocks. This distinction turns out to be quite important empirically, as global shocks account for roughly fifty percent of the overall variance of productivity. An apparent puzzle, however, is that the current account seems to respond by much less than investment to country-specific productivity ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 443
Working Paper
Constrained suboptimality in economies with limited communication
Bowman, David
(1995)
Economies with limited communication contain an externality which typically makes them Pareto inefficient, even taking into account the communication constraints agents face. In a two period model it is shown that an open and dense set of economies with limited communication are constrained Pareto suboptimal. Thus equilibria of economies with voluntary unemployment, search, or other types of limits on communication are unlikely to be Pareto optimal, even in the absence of moral hazard, adverse selection, or search externalities.
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 497
Journal Article
Statement on monetary measures and objectives
anonymous
(1939-05)
Federal Reserve Bulletin
, Issue May
Journal Article
A method for evaluating interest rate risk in U.S. commercial banks
Embersit, James A.; Houpt, James V.
(1991-08)
Federal Reserve Bulletin
, Issue Aug
Journal Article
Statement to Congress, May 3, 1995(benefits and cost of substituting a $ 1 coin for the $1 bank note)
Kelley, Edward W.
(1995-07)
Federal Reserve Bulletin
, Issue Jul
Journal Article
Statement to Congress, May 14, 1990 (role of U.S. firms and banks in a global competitive setting)
Greenspan, Alan
(1990-07)
Federal Reserve Bulletin
, Issue Jul
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