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Keywords:zero lower bound 

Speech
Panel remarks at the Brookings Institution

Remarks at The Fed at a crossroads: Where to go next?, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
Speech , Paper 181

Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy

Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 185

Speech
Remarks at the 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City

Remarks at the 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 219

Working Paper
How Has Empirical Monetary Policy Analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis?

In the wake of the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) target essentially to zero and resorted to unconventional monetary policy. With the nominal FFR constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) for an extended period, empirical monetary models cannot be estimated as usual. In this paper, we consider whether the standard empirical model of monetary policy can be preserved without breaks. We consider whether alternative policy instruments (e.g., a long-term interest rate) can be considered substitutes for the FFR over the ZLB period. Furthermore, we compare ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-19

Speech
Observations on Monetary Policy and the Zero Lower Bound: Remarks for a Panel Discussion at the 2020 Spring Meeting of the Shadow Open Market Committee: “Current Monetary Policy: The Influence of Marvin Goodfriend”

I would like to thank the organizers of this conference for inviting me to participate on this panel – and more broadly for organizing a conference examining many of the challenges policymakers have faced over the past 20 years. As many of you know, these were challenges that Marvin Goodfriend anticipated, well before the Great Recession forced policymakers to confront them. Specifically, our panel topic – monetary policy and the zero lower bound – is one that Marvin devoted a good deal of thought to. And as I’ll touch on today, his emphasis on this topic proved prescient.
Speech

Working Paper
The Perils of Nominal Targets

A monetary authority can be committed to pursuing an inflation, price-level, or nominal-GDP target yet systematically fail to achieve the prescribed goal. Con- strained by the zero lower bound on the policy rate, the monetary authority is unable to implement its objectives when private-sector expectations stray far enough from the target. Low-inflation expectations become self-fulfilling, resulting in an additional Markov equilibrium in which the monetary authority falls short of the nominal target, average output is below its efficient level, and the policy rate is typically low. Introducing ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-30

Journal Article
How Likely Is the Zero Lower Bound?

We estimate the probability that the federal funds rate will be at or below the zero lower bound over a ten-year time horizon. We do so by specifying and estimating a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for key US macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the estimated model, we generate a distribution of future outcomes from which we compute such probabilities. We find that the zero lower bound probability ranges between 15 percent and 30 percent in the longer term depending on the specific measure used. In the near term, this probability is effectively zero. Robustness checks for ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 1Q , Pages 41-54

Working Paper
Escaping the Great Recession

We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a Markov-switching VAR to highlight that a zero-lower-bound regime captures most of the comovements during the Great Recession: a deep recession, no deflation, and large fiscal imbalances. We then show that a micro-founded model that features policy uncertainty accounts for these stylized facts. Finally, we highlight that policy uncertainty arises at the zero lower bound because of a trade-off between mitigating the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-16

Working Paper
The Interplay Between Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Shocks

We study the interplay between monetary policy and financial conditions shocks. Such shocks have a significant and similar impact on the real economy, though with different degrees of persistence. The systematic fed funds rate response to a financial shock contributes to bringing the economy back towards trend, but a zero lower bound on policy rates can prevent this from happening, with a significant cost in terms of output and investment. In a retrospective analysis of the U.S. economy over the past 20 years, we decompose the realization of economic variables into the contributions of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-11

Working Paper
Escaping the Great Recession

While high uncertainty is an inherent implication of the economy entering the zero lower bound, deflation is not, because agents are likely to be uncertain about the way policymakers will deal with the large stock of debt arising from a severe recession. We draw this conclusion based on a new-Keynesian model in which the monetary/fiscal policy mix can change over time and zero-lower-bound episodes are recurrent. Given that policymakers? behavior is constrained at the zero lower bound, beliefs about the exit strategy play a key role. Announcing a period of austerity is detrimental in the short ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-17

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