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Keywords:wages 

Working Paper
Inflation and the Gig Economy: Have the Rise of Online Retailing and Self-Employment Disrupted the Phillips Curve?

During the recovery from the Great Recession, inflation did not reach the central bank?s 2 percent objective as quickly as many models had predicted. This coincided with increases in online shopping, which arguably made retail markets more contestable and damped retail inflation. This hypothesis is tested using data on the online share of retail sales, which are incorporated into an econometric model. Results imply that the rise of online retail has flattened the Phillips Curve, reducing the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment rate changes. Improvement in fit from just including the ...
Working Papers , Paper 1814

Working Paper
The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation

We use a time-varying parameter/stochastic volatility VAR framework to assess how the passthrough of labor costs to price inflation has evolved over time in U.S. data. We find little evidence that changes in labor costs have had a material effect on price inflation in recent years, even for compensation measures where some degree of passthrough to prices still appears to be present. Our results cast doubt on explanations of recent inflation behavior that appeal to such mechanisms as downward nominal wage rigidity or a differential contribution of long-term and short-term unemployed workers to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-42

Journal Article
Work, Leisure, and Family: From the Silent Generation to Millennials

This article analyzes the changes in family structure, fertility behavior, and the division of labor within the household from the Silent generation (cohort born in 1940-49) to the Millennial generation (cohort born in 1980-89). Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this article documents the main trends and life-cycle profiles for each generation. The main findings are that (i) the wage-age profile has been shifting down over generations, especially for Millennial men; (ii) the returns to a four-year college degree or higher for men have increased for all generations; (iii) ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 385-424

Journal Article
What Can We Learn from Online Wage Postings? Evidence from Glassdoor

We use millions of user-entry salaries from Glassdoor to evaluate how well data from online wage postings compare with more traditional, aggregated data, such as the Quarterly Census for Employment and Wages (QCEW) or household-level data such as the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We perform our analysis across industries as well as geographical areas. We find that industry employment shares differ substantially between Glassdoor and QCEW. However, the correlation between industry- and region-specific average salaries in Glassdoor and the QCEW is fairly high. Similarly, the ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 4Q , Pages 173-189

Newsletter
Explaining Variation in Real Wage Growth Over the Recent Expansion

In August 2019 the unemployment rate was roughly 1 percentage point below the Congressional Budget Office?s (CBO) estimate of its long-run or natural rate, nearly matching the unemployment rate gap that developed during the historically tight labor market of the late 1990s. Nevertheless, real wage growth remains well below its pace of the late 1990s and even that of the milder 2000s expansion.
Chicago Fed Letter

Discussion Paper
What Is behind the Global Jump in Personal Saving during the Pandemic?

Household saving has soared in the United States and other high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite widespread declines in wages and other private income streams. This post highlights the role of fiscal policy in driving the saving boom, through stepped-up social benefits and other income support measures. Indeed, in the United States, Japan, and Canada, government assistance has pushed household income above its pre-pandemic trajectory. We argue that the larger scale of government assistance in these countries helps explain why saving in these countries has risen more ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210414

Newsletter
Understanding the Relationship between Real Wage Growth and Labor Market Conditions

The authors find that the share of the labor force that is medium-term unemployed (five to 26 weeks unemployed) and the share working part time (less than 35 hours per week) involuntarily are strongly correlated with real wage growth. Moreover, they estimate that average real wage growth would have been between one-half of a percentage point and a full percentage point higher in June 2014 if 2005?07 labor market conditions had been restored, indicating that the slack in the jobs market still weighs heavily on the real wage prospects of U.S. workers.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Oct

Discussion Paper
How Much for Your Time? Fifth District Firms Struggle to Find Workers

Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
The Survey of Consumer Expectations Turns Two!

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) turned two years old in June. In this post, we review some of the key findings from the first two years of the survey’s history, highlighting the most noteworthy trends revealed in the data.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150713a

Working Paper
The Dynamics of the Smoking Wage Penalty

Cigarette smokers earn significantly less than nonsmokers, but the magnitude of the smoking wage gap and the pathways by which it originates are unclear. Proposed mechanisms often focus on spot differences in employee productivity or employer preferences, neglecting the dynamic nature of human capital development and addiction. In this paper, we formulate a dynamic model of young workers as they transition from schooling to the labor market, a period in which the lifetime trajectory of wages is being developed. We estimate the model with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-11

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