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Keywords:wage growth OR Wage growth OR Wage Growth 

Working Paper
The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K

U.K. data from 1993-2012 suggest that in economic downturns a smaller fraction of unemployed workers change their career when starting a new job. The proportion of total hires involving a career change also drops. This implies that career changes decline during recessions. The results indicate that recessions are times of subdued reallocation rather than of accelerated and involuntary structural transformation.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-21

Working Paper
Search, Matching and Training

We estimate a partial and general equilibrium search model in which firms and workers choose how much time to invest in both general and match-specific human capital. To help identify the model parameters, we use NLSY data on worker training and we match moments that relate the incidence and timing of observed training episodes to outcomes such as wage growth and job-to-job transitions. We use our model to offer a novel interpretation of standard Mincer wage regressions in terms of search frictions and returns to training. Finally, we show how a minimum wage can reduce training opportunities ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-075

Working Paper
A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data

Studies that estimate the Phillips curve for the U.S. use mainly national-level data and find mixed evidence of nonlinearity, with some recent studies either rejecting nonlinearity or estimating only modest convexity. In addition, most studies do not make a distinction between the relative impacts of short-term vs. long-term unemployment on wage inflation. Using state-level data from 1982 to 2013, we find strong evidence that the wage-price Phillips curve is nonlinear and convex; declines in the unemployment rate below the average unemployment rate exert significantly higher wage pressure ...
Working Papers , Paper 1409

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells

This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, after an unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage rowth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-09

Journal Article
Nominal Wage Rigidities and the Future Path of Wage Growth

Wage growth has been modest since the end of the Great Recession, puzzling many market observers and policymakers. Article examines the relationship between wage growth and nominal wage rigidities?the share of workers whose wages have not changed?and find the current pace of wage growth is not historically unusual. The results suggest wage growth may continue on its gradual path as long as the incidence of wage rigidities remains elevated.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Wage Growth after the Great Recession

Nominal wage growth since the Great Recession has been sluggish. We show that the sluggishness is due mostly to weak growth in labor productivity, as well as lower-than-expected inflation. We also find that wage growth since late 2014 has actually been above what would be consistent with realized labor-productivity growth and inflation, and this trend in wages reflects an increase in labor?s share of income. We show evidence that this increase in the labor share may be due to a reversal of the trend to replace labor with capital.
Economic Commentary , Issue March

Journal Article
Opinion: Is There a Wage Growth Puzzle?

The Great Recession saw a weakening of labor markets that was, by some measures, the worst since the Great Depression. On an aggregate level, labor markets have since recovered substantially ? the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 10 percent to just above 4 percent. At the same time, data on wages and hiring highlight something that has puzzled macroeconomists: As the labor market reaches levels consistent with full employment, wage growth seemingly remains slow.
Econ Focus , Issue 4Q , Pages 44-44

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells

This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, afteran unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage growth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-9

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