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Keywords:wage growth 

Working Paper
The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K

U.K. data from 1993-2012 suggest that in economic downturns a smaller fraction of unemployed workers change their career when starting a new job. The proportion of total hires involving a career change also drops. This implies that career changes decline during recessions. The results indicate that recessions are times of subdued reallocation rather than of accelerated and involuntary structural transformation.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-21

Working Paper
A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data

Studies that estimate the Phillips curve for the U.S. use mainly national-level data and find mixed evidence of nonlinearity, with some recent studies either rejecting nonlinearity or estimating only modest convexity. In addition, most studies do not make a distinction between the relative impacts of short-term vs. long-term unemployment on wage inflation. Using state-level data from 1982 to 2013, we find strong evidence that the wage-price Phillips curve is nonlinear and convex; declines in the unemployment rate below the average unemployment rate exert significantly higher wage pressure ...
Working Papers , Paper 1409

Journal Article
Opinion: Is There a Wage Growth Puzzle?

The Great Recession saw a weakening of labor markets that was, by some measures, the worst since the Great Depression. On an aggregate level, labor markets have since recovered substantially ? the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 10 percent to just above 4 percent. At the same time, data on wages and hiring highlight something that has puzzled macroeconomists: As the labor market reaches levels consistent with full employment, wage growth seemingly remains slow.
Econ Focus , Issue 4Q , Pages 44-44

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells

This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, after an unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage rowth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-09

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells

This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, afteran unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage growth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-9

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