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Keywords:updating OR Updating 

Home price expectations and behavior: evidence from a randomized information experiment

Home price expectations are believed to play an important role in housing dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of how they are formed and how they affect behavior. Using a unique ?information experiment? embedded in an online survey, this paper investigates how consumers? home price expectations respond to past home price growth and how they impact investment decisions. After eliciting respondents? initial beliefs about past and future local home price changes, we present a random subset of the respondents with factual information about past (one- or five-year) changes and then ...
Staff Reports , Paper 798

Working Paper
The Importance of Updating: Evidence from a Brazilian Nowcasting Model

How often should we update predictions for economic activity? Gross domestic product is a quarterly variable disseminated usually a couple of months after the end of the quarter, but many other macroeconomic indicators are released with a higher frequency, and financial markets react very strongly to them. However, most of the professional forecasters, including the IMF, the OECD, and most central banks, tend to update their forecasts of economic activity only two to four times a year. The main exception is the Central Bank of Brazil which is responsible for collecting and publishing a daily ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-94

Working Paper
A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?

We propose a dynamic factor model for nowcasting the growth rate of quarterly real{{p}}Canadian gross domestic product. We show that the proposed model produces more accurate nowcasts than those produced by institutional forecasters, like the Bank of Canada, the The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the survey collected by Bloomberg, which reflects the median forecast of market participants. We show that including U.S. data in a nowcasting model for Canada dramatically improves its predictive accuracy, mainly because of the absence of timely production data ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-036


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