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Keywords:unemployment gap 

Discussion Paper
Compensation Growth and Slack in the Current Economic Environment

Following a significant slowing during the recent recession, growth in various labor compensation measures has stabilized during the past two to three years. This stabilization is puzzling because it’s widely held that a significant amount of slack remains in the economy. Accordingly, this large amount of slack should result in a further slowing in compensation (wage) growth. In this post, we show that there’s a very mild trade-off between compensation growth and resource slack, even though slack is sizable. Consequently, the observation that there’s slow but steady growth in labor ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121119

Working Paper
Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?

This paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an unconditional and conditional perspective by applying the method developed by Giacomini and White (2006). We find that forecasts from our Phillips curve models tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from our univariate forecasting models. Significantly, we also find conditional inferiority, with some exceptions. When we do find improvement, it is asymmetric - Phillips curve forecasts tend to be more accurate when the economy is weak and less accurate when the economy is strong. Any improvement we find, ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-26

Working Paper
Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?

This paper reexamines the forecasting ability of Phillips curves from both an unconditional and conditional perspective by applying the method developed by Giacomini and White (2006). We find that forecasts from our Phillips curve models tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from our univariate forecasting models. We also find, however, that conditioning on the state of the economy sometimes does improve the performance of the Phillips curve model in a statistically significant manner. When we do find improvement, it is asymmetric -- Phillips curve forecasts tend to be more accurate ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-16

Journal Article
Pandemic Unemployment Effects across Demographic Groups

Workers in service industries and occupations with a lot of close social contact suffered the highest job losses during the pandemic recession. This differed from previous downturns, which tended to have their most severe effects on industries with high concentrations of manual labor. As a result, the unemployment impact of the pandemic on different demographic groups has not followed historical patterns, particularly for Asian, Black, and female workers. The unemployment gap between these racial groups has not been as wide as previous economic fluctuations would have predicted.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 12 , Pages 05

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