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Journal Article
Georgia unemployment rate 'problem' provides a lesson
Krikelas, Andrew C. (1992-01)
Regional Update , Issue Jan , Pages 1-3

Working Paper
On the aggregate welfare cost of Great Depression unemployment
Chatterjee, Satyajit; Corbae, Dean (2006)
The potential benefit of policies that eliminate a small likelihood of economic crises is calculated. An economic crisis is defined as an increase in unemployment of the magnitude observed during the Great Depression. For the U.S., the maximum-likelihood estimate of entering a depression is found to be about once every 83 years. The welfare gain from setting this small probability to zero can range between 1 and 7 percent of annual consumption in perpetuity. For most estimates, more than half of these large gains result from a reduction in individual consumption volatility. ; This paper ...
Working Papers , Paper 06-18

A Hard or Soft Landing? The Answer May Lie in the Beveridge Curve
Birinci, Serdar; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-07-13)
The traditional Beveridge curve suggests that a sharp rise in unemployment is needed to meaningfully lower the job vacancy rate. But the curve shaped by the pandemic labor market may signal a different result.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Youth unemployment and the transition from school to work: programs in Boston, Frankfurt, and London
Spring, William J. (1987-03)
New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 3-16

Working Paper
Do minimum wages raise the NAIRU?
Tulip, Peter (2000)
A high minimum wage (relative to average wages) raises nominal wage growth and hence inflation. This effect can be offset by extra unemployment; so the minimum wage increases the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment or NAIRU. This effect is clearly discernible and robust to variations in model specification and sample period. It is consistent with international comparisons and the behavior of prices. I estimate that the reduction in the relative level of the minimum wage over the last two decades accounts for a reduction in the NAIRU of about 1 1/2 percentage points. It can also ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2000-38

Working Paper
Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics: Why More Educated Workers Enjoy Greater Employment Stability
Cairó, Isabel; Cajner, Tomaz (2014-02)
Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower employment volatility? A closer look at the data reveals that these workers have similar job finding rates, but much lower and less volatile separation rates than their less educated peers. We argue that on-the-job training, being complementary to formal education, is the reason for this pattern. Using a search and matching model with endogenous separations, we show that investments in match-specific human capital reduce the outside option of workers, implying less incentives to separate. The model generates ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-09

Working Paper
Job Applications and Labor Market Flows
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; Wee, Shu Lin (2022-02)
Job applications have risen over time yet job-finding rates remain unchanged. Meanwhile, separations have declined. We argue that increased applications raise the probability of a good match rather than the probability of job-finding. Using a search model with multiple applications and costly information, we show that when applications increase, firms invest in identifying good matches, reducing separations. Concurrently, increased congestion and selectivity over which offer to accept temper increases in job-finding rates. Our framework contains testable implications for changes in offers, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-023

Journal Article
Worker skills and job quality
Valletta, Robert G.; Neumark, David (2012)
Some observers have argued that the nation's high unemployment rate during the current recovery stems partly from widespread mismatches between the skills of jobseekers and the needs of employers. A recent San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank conference on workforce skills considered evidence that employers have had difficulties finding workers with appropriate skills in recent years. However, these mismatches do not appear to be much more severe than in the past. Overall, the conference proceedings suggested the U.S. economy can still produce good jobs for workers at a variety of skill levels. ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Labor Market Institutions and the Effects of Financial Openness
Wei, Shang-Jin; Nie, Jun; Du, Qingyuan (2020-02-03)
We propose a new channel to explain why developing countries may fail to beneﬁt from ﬁnancial globalization, based on labor market institutions. In our model, ﬁnancial openness in a developing country with a rigid labor market leads to capital outﬂow, and both employment and output fall. In contrast, ﬁnancial openness in a developing country with a ﬂexible labor market beneﬁts the country. Our model suggests that enhancing labor market ﬂexibility is a complementary reform for developing countries opening capital accounts.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-11

Speech
Some unpleasant implications for unemployment targeters
Bullard, James B. (2013)
April 17, 2013. Presentation. "Some Unpleasant Implications for Unemployment Targeters." 22nd Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference, New York, N.Y.
Speech , Paper 215

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