Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 88.

(refine search)

Discussion Paper
Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?

Consumer confidence is closely monitored by policymakers and commentators because of the presumed insight it can offer into the outlook for consumer spending and thus the economy in general. Yet there’s another useful dimension to consumer confidence that’s often overlooked: its ability to signal incipient developments in the job market. In this post, we look at trends in a particular measure of consumer confidence—the Present Situation Index component of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index—over the past thirty-five years and show that they’re closely associated with ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130904

Jobs Hardest Hit by the Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially affected labor markets. Which industries and occupations had the largest employment declines between February and April?
On the Economy

Labor Market Policies during an Epidemic

We study the positive and normative implications of labor market policies that counteract the economic fallout from containment measures during an epidemic. We incorporate a standard epidemiological model into an equilibrium search model of the labor market to compare unemployment insurance (UI) expansions and payroll subsidies. In isolation, payroll subsidies that preserve match capital and enable a swift economic recovery are preferred over a cost-equivalent UI expansion. When considered jointly, however, a cost-equivalent optimal mix allocates 20 percent of the budget to payroll subsidies ...
Staff Reports , Paper 943

Journal Article
Which Jobs Have Been Hit Hardest by COVID-19?

Between mid-March and the end of April, U.S. unemployment rolls rose quickly to 33 million, while the unemployment rate jumped to almost 15%.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 3

Discussion Paper
Expecting the Unexpected: Job Losses and Household Spending

Unemployment risk constitutes one of the most significant sources of uncertainty facing workers in the United States. A large body of work has carefully documented that job loss may have long-term effects on one’s career, depressing earnings by as much as 20 percent after fifteen to twenty years. Given the severity of a job loss for earnings, an important question is how much such an event affects one’s standard of living during a spell of unemployment. This blog post explores how unemployment and expectations of job loss interact to affect household spending.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190327

Which Workers Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Occupations that earn less than $34,963 on average—such as cashiers, servers and janitors—accounted for 34% of the increase in unemployment from January to April.
On the Economy

How Should the Government Spend the Fiscal Budget during the COVID-19 Pandemic?

A mix of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and payroll subsidies to employers may be more effective in speeding up the recovery than implementing just one of those policies.
On the Economy

The Effects of Extra Unemployment Benefits on Household Delinquencies

The additional $600 per week in unemployment benefits may have helped stave off some household delinquencies.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Challenges with Estimating U Star in Real Time

Although the concept of the natural rate of employment, NAIRU, or ?U star? is used to measure the amount of slack in the labor market, it is an unobservable quantity that must be estimated using data currently available. This Commentary investigates the degree to which our estimates of U star at various points in the current business cycle have changed as real-time data have been revised and as more data points have accumulated. I find that the availability of additional data has contributed to a significant change in our estimates of U star at earlier points in the business cycle, a result ...
Economic Commentary , Issue November

What Does Labor Market Tightness Tell Us About the End of an Expansion?

We use a model based on the historical relationships between unemployment, inflation, and recessions, along with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC),1 to examine the medium-term implications of current and projected unemployment rates for the U.S. economy. Our model predicts a low probability of a recession in the next two to three years based on SEP forecasts for additional labor market tightening over this horizon.
Chicago Fed Letter



FILTER BY Content Type

Working Paper 25 items

Journal Article 19 items

Report 10 items

Discussion Paper 9 items

Newsletter 8 items

Blog 6 items

show more (4)


Karahan, Fatih 9 items

Strauss, William A. 5 items

Aaronson, Daniel 4 items

Fujita, Shigeru 4 items

Krolikowski, Pawel 4 items

Kudlyak, Marianna 4 items

show more (129)

FILTER BY Jel Classification

E24 24 items

J64 18 items

E32 7 items

J24 7 items

J63 7 items

J23 4 items

show more (56)

FILTER BY Keywords

unemployment 88 items

COVID-19 22 items

labor market 12 items

inflation 11 items

employment 10 items

coronavirus 9 items

show more (195)