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Jobs Hardest Hit by the Pandemic
Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2020-10-12)
The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially affected labor markets. Which industries and occupations had the largest employment declines between February and April?
On the Economy

Working Paper
Inflation and the Gig Economy: Have the Rise of Online Retailing and Self-Employment Disrupted the Phillips Curve?
Duca, John V. (2018-11-16)
During the recovery from the Great Recession, inflation did not reach the central bank?s 2 percent objective as quickly as many models had predicted. This coincided with increases in online shopping, which arguably made retail markets more contestable and damped retail inflation. This hypothesis is tested using data on the online share of retail sales, which are incorporated into an econometric model. Results imply that the rise of online retail has flattened the Phillips Curve, reducing the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment rate changes. Improvement in fit from just including the ...
Working Papers , Paper 1814

Report
Do consumers rely more heavily on credit cards while unemployed?
Cole, Allison (2016-12-20)
Leading up to the Great Recession, households increased their credit card debt by over 16 percent ($121 billion) during the five-year period from 2004 to 2009. The unemployment rate simultaneously began to rise in 2008, increasing from 5.0 percent in January 2008 to a high of 10.0 percent in October of 2009. During the recovery, from 2009 to 2014, credit card debt fell by more than 25 percent, as the unemployment rate returned to near prerecession levels. These coincident developments have led to speculation that consumers facing unemployment or job uncertainty may have increased their ...
Research Data Report , Paper 16-6

Journal Article
Reinvesting in the Greater Chatham Neighborhoods in Chicago: New Data and Insights from Practitioners and Policymakers
Newberger, Robin G.; Toussaint-Comeau, Maude (2017)
In the not too distant past, Chicago was known as the center of black capitalism in America, and within the city, the Chatham neighborhood reflected the heart of black middle-class aspirations. In recent years, residents of Chatham and other south side neighborhoods have confronted a barrage of challenges to their once stable communities. In hopes of stanching this tide, Congressman Bobby Rush, whose district includes the Chatham neighborhood, and scores of civic leaders, helped launch the Greater Chatham Initiative (GCI) in June 2016,1 to mobilize resources for a comprehensive set of ...
Profitwise , Issue 3 , Pages 4-20

Working Paper
Some Like It Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy
Moore, Robert E.; Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2018-06-01)
This paper explores evidence for positive hysteresis in the labor market. Using data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, we find that negative labor market outcomes during high unemployment periods are mitigated by exposure to a high-pressure economy during the preceding expansion. Breaking total exposure into intensity and duration suggests that these two dimensions have differing impacts. However, the benefits of exposure are not enough to overcome the greater negative impact of high unemployment periods on labor market outcomes of disadvantaged groups, making extension of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-1

Working Paper
Is the grass really greener? Migrants' improvements in local labor market conditions and financial health
Whitaker, Stephan (2022-02-22)
This paper documents several facts about internal migrants in the US that underlie substantial areas of economic research and policy making, but are rarely directly published. Using a large-sample, 23-year panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, I estimate the distribution of changes in local labor market conditions experienced by people who move to a different labor market. Net migration favors local labor markets with lower unemployment and faster job growth, but gross flows toward weaker labor markets are almost as large as the flows toward stronger labor ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-04

Speech
Reading the Recovery
Williams, John C. (2022-01-14)
Remarks at Council on Foreign Relations (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Speech
St. Louis Fed Chief James Bullard Interviewed by Wall Street Journal
Bullard, James B. (2022-01-12)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the U.S. central bank should start raising interest rates “sooner rather than later,” and that he sees a March rate rise as likely amid high inflation. He also said a strong job market could push the unemployment rate to under 3% this year, during an interview with The Wall Street Journal’s Michael S. Derby on Wednesday.
Speech

Report
Replacement hiring and the productivity-wage gap
Wee, Shu Lin; Acharya, Sushant (2018-06-01)
A large and growing share of hires in the United States are replacement hires. This increase coincides with a growing productivity-wage gap. We connect these trends by building a model where firms post long-lived vacancies and engage in on-the-job search for more productive workers. These features improve a firm's bargaining position while raising workers' job insecurity and the wedge between hiring and meeting rates. All three channels lower wages while raising productivity. Quantitatively, increased replacement hiring explains half the increase in the productivity-wage gap. The socially ...
Staff Reports , Paper 860

Working Paper
Medicaid Expansion and the Unemployed
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Buchmueller, Thomas C.; Valletta, Robert G. (2019-12-16)
We examine how a key provision of the Affordable Care Act—the expansion of Medicaid eligibility—affected health insurance coverage, access to care, and labor market transitions of unemployed workers. Comparing trends in states that implemented the Medicaid expansion to those that did not, we find that the ACA Medicaid expansion substantially increased insurance coverage and improved access to health care among unemployed workers. We then test whether this strengthening of the safety net affected transitions from unemployment to employment or out of the labor force. We find no meaningful ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-29

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