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Keywords:unemployment 

Journal Article
Investing to Create Good Jobs

A growing number of foundation, nonprofit, and for-profit investors are making investments for measurable social and environmental impact as well as financial return. The ?impact investing? field includes a few investors that are investing in businesses specifically to create jobs for unemployed and underemployed residents. These investors also provide ongoing assistance to owners of the businesses to create ?good quality jobs,? which generally provide income above the minimum wage, health benefits, and training and opportunities for workers to move into positions with higher wages. Three ...
Cascade , Volume 4

Journal Article
Adjusting the Unemployment Thermometer

Stay-at-home orders issued to slow the spread of COVID-19 may have severely distorted labor market statistics, notably the official unemployment rate. A method to correct the survey biases associated with the pandemic indicates that the true unemployment rate was substantially higher than the official rate in April and May. However, the biases appeared to fade thereafter, making the drop in June even more dramatic than implied by the official data.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 27 , Pages 01-05

Newsletter
Understanding the Relationship between Real Wage Growth and Labor Market Conditions

The authors find that the share of the labor force that is medium-term unemployed (five to 26 weeks unemployed) and the share working part time (less than 35 hours per week) involuntarily are strongly correlated with real wage growth. Moreover, they estimate that average real wage growth would have been between one-half of a percentage point and a full percentage point higher in June 2014 if 2005?07 labor market conditions had been restored, indicating that the slack in the jobs market still weighs heavily on the real wage prospects of U.S. workers.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Are recent college graduates finding good jobs?

According to numerous accounts, the Great Recession has left many recent college graduates struggling to find jobs that utilize their education. However, a look at the data on the employment outcomes for recent graduates over the past two decades suggests that such difficulties are not a new phenomenon: individuals just beginning their careers often need time to transition into the labor market. Still, the percentage who are unemployed or ?underemployed??working in a job that typically does not require a bachelor?s degree?has risen, particularly since the 2001 recession. Moreover, the quality ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 20

Working Paper
The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor Supply Elasticities and Wage Rigidity

Using a representative-household search and matching model with endogenous labor force participation, we study the cyclicality of labor market transition rates between employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation. When interpreted through the lens of the model, the behavior of transition rates implies that the participation margin is strongly countercyclical: the household’s incentive to send more workers to the labor force falls in expansions. We identify two key channels through which the model delivers this result: (i) the procyclical values of non-market activities and (ii) wage ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-23

Speech
Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook

Remarks at Euromoney Real Return XIII: The Inflation-Linked Products Conference 2019, New York City.
Speech , Paper 328

Working Paper
Medicaid Expansion and the Unemployed

We examine how a key provision of the Affordable Care Act—the expansion of Medicaid eligibility—affected health insurance coverage, access to care, and labor market transitions of unemployed workers. Comparing trends in states that implemented the Medicaid expansion to those that did not, we find that the ACA Medicaid expansion substantially increased insurance coverage and improved access to health care among unemployed workers. We then test whether this strengthening of the safety net affected transitions from unemployment to employment or out of the labor force. We find no meaningful ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-29

Working Paper
No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations

Using a novel database of 159 million online job postings, we examine changes in employer skill requirements for education and specific skillsets between 2007 and 2017. We find that upskilling—in terms of increasing demands for bachelor’s degrees as well as software skills—was a persistent trend among high-skill occupations, but either a temporary or non-existent phenomenon among middle-skill and low-skill occupations. We also find evidence that persistentupskilling in the high-skill sector contributed to greater occupational mismatch that remained elevated during the recovery from the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-3

Working Paper
Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy

The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on reported job search activity. We assess potential unemployment paths based on historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique features of the virus economy. The possible paths vary widely, but absent ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-18

Which Workers Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Occupations that earn less than $34,963 on average—such as cashiers, servers and janitors—accounted for 34% of the increase in unemployment from January to April.
On the Economy

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