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A Hard or Soft Landing? The Answer May Lie in the Beveridge Curve
Birinci, Serdar; Ngân, Trần Khánh (2023-07-13)
The traditional Beveridge curve suggests that a sharp rise in unemployment is needed to meaningfully lower the job vacancy rate. But the curve shaped by the pandemic labor market may signal a different result.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Reshoring, Automation, and Labor Markets Under Trade Uncertainty
Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng (2024-05-05)
We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentive for firms to reduce exposures to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor productivity and facilitates reshoring, but it can also displace jobs. Furthermore, automation poses a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-16

Journal Article
“Great Resignations” Are Common During Fast Recoveries
Hobijn, Bart (2022-04-04)
The record percentage of workers who are quitting their jobs, known as the “Great Resignation,” is not a shift in worker attitudes in the wake of the pandemic. Evidence on which workers are quitting suggests that it reflects the strong rebound of the demand for younger and less-educated workers. Historical data on quits in manufacturing suggest that the current wave is not unusual. Waves of job quits have occurred during all fast recoveries in the postwar period.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 08 , Pages 06

Report
Do Consumers Rely More Heavily on Credit Cards While Unemployed?
Cole, Allison (2016-12-20)
Leading up to the Great Recession, households increased their credit card debt by over 16 percent ($121 billion) during the five-year period from 2004 to 2009. The unemployment rate simultaneously began to rise in 2008, increasing from 5.0 percent in January 2008 to a high of 10.0 percent in October of 2009. During the recovery, from 2009 to 2014, credit card debt fell by more than 25 percent, as the unemployment rate returned to near prerecession levels. These coincident developments have led to speculation that consumers facing unemployment or job uncertainty may have increased their ...
Consumer Payments Research Data Reports , Paper 2016-06

Newsletter
Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2018 Results and 2019 Forecasts
Strauss, William A.; Sarussi, Kelley (2019)
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium (EOS), the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace somewhat above average in 2019, with inflation ticking down and the unemployment rate remaining low.
Chicago Fed Letter

Journal Article
Are recent college graduates finding good jobs?
Su, Yaquin; Deitz, Richard; Abel, Jaison R. (2014)
According to numerous accounts, the Great Recession has left many recent college graduates struggling to find jobs that utilize their education. However, a look at the data on the employment outcomes for recent graduates over the past two decades suggests that such difficulties are not a new phenomenon: individuals just beginning their careers often need time to transition into the labor market. Still, the percentage who are unemployed or ?underemployed??working in a job that typically does not require a bachelor?s degree?has risen, particularly since the 2001 recession. Moreover, the quality ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 20

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2022-09-06)
When firms decide to post a vacancy they can hire from the pool of unemployed workers or they can poach a worker from another firm. In this paper we show that if there are two different matching processes, one for unemployed workers and another one for job-to-job transitions, then implications for the Beveridge curve are potentially very different, influencing the effects of monetary policy on unemployment. We show that over the years the hiring process and how job postings are used as an input into this process has changed dramatically.
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Newsletter
Understanding the Relationship between Real Wage Growth and Labor Market Conditions
Jordan, Andrew; Aaronson, Daniel (2014-10)
The authors find that the share of the labor force that is medium-term unemployed (five to 26 weeks unemployed) and the share working part time (less than 35 hours per week) involuntarily are strongly correlated with real wage growth. Moreover, they estimate that average real wage growth would have been between one-half of a percentage point and a full percentage point higher in June 2014 if 2005?07 labor market conditions had been restored, indicating that the slack in the jobs market still weighs heavily on the real wage prospects of U.S. workers.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Searching for Maximum Employment
Albert, Sarah; Valletta, Robert G. (2022-02-07)
How well the economy is progressing toward the Federal Reserve’s goal of maximum employment is reflected in a range of indicators that evolve over time. Beyond the unemployment rate, two key metrics of labor market health are the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio. The aging of the population is reducing the levels of both measures, implying that they are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic highs. However, these two indicators remain well below their demographic trends, and analysis suggests that they will not recover to trend until 2024.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 02 , Pages 06

Speech
Bullard Speaks with Wharton about Inflation, Policy Rate, Fed Balance Sheet
Bullard, James B. (2022-02-25)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed inflation expectations, monetary policy accommodation removal and unemployment during an interview with Wharton Business Radio’s Behind the Markets program.
Speech

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