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Journal Article
Hit Harder, Recover Slower? Unequal Employment Effects of the COVID-19 Shock
Lee, Sang Yoon (Tim); Park, Minsung; Shin, Yongseok (2021-10-18)
The destructive economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was distributed unequally across the population. A worker's gender, race and ethnicity, age, education, industry, and occupation all mattered. We analyze the initial negative effect and its lingering effect through the recovery phase, across demographic and socioeconomic groups. The initial negative impact on employment was larger for women, minorities, the less educated, and the young whether or not we account for the industries and occupations they worked in. By February 2021, however, the differential effects across groups had gotten ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 367-383

Working Paper
Hysteresis in Employment among Disadvantaged Workers
Krolikowski, Pawel; Fallick, Bruce (2018-02-06)
We examine hysteresis in employment-to-population ratios among less-educated men using state-level data. Results from dynamic panel regressions indicate a moderate degree of hysteresis: The effects of past employment rates on subsequent employment rates can be substantial but essentially dissipate within three years. This finding is robust to a number of variations. We find no substantial asymmetry in the persistence of high vs. low employment rates. The cumulative effect of hysteresis in the business cycle surrounding the 2001 recession was mildly positive, while the effect in the cycle ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1801

Report
Geographical reallocation and unemployment during the Great Recession: the role of the housing bust
Rhee, Serena; Karahan, Fatih (2013)
This paper quantitatively evaluates the hypothesis that the housing bust in 2007 decreased geographical reallocation and increased the dispersion and level of unemployment during the Great Recession. We construct an equilibrium model of multiple locations with frictional housing and labor markets. When house prices fall, the amount of home equity declines, making it harder for homeowners to afford the down payment on a new house after moving. Consequently, the decline in house prices reduces migration and causes unemployment to rise differently in different locations. The model accounts for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 605

Newsletter
Changing Labor Force Composition and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Sullivan, Daniel G.; Hu, Luojia; Aaronson, Daniel; Seifoddini, Arian (2015)
This article discusses why changes in the composition of the labor force may have lowered the natural (or trend) rate of unemployment?the unemployment rate that would prevail in an economy making full use of its productive resources?to 5 percent or less. A lower natural rate may help explain why wage inflation and price inflation remain low despite actual unemployment recently reaching 5.5 percent?a figure only slightly above prominent estimates of the natural rate, such as that of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Demographic and other changes should continue to lower the natural rate ...
Chicago Fed Letter

Journal Article
Are recent college graduates finding good jobs?
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Su, Yaquin (2014)
According to numerous accounts, the Great Recession has left many recent college graduates struggling to find jobs that utilize their education. However, a look at the data on the employment outcomes for recent graduates over the past two decades suggests that such difficulties are not a new phenomenon: individuals just beginning their careers often need time to transition into the labor market. Still, the percentage who are unemployed or ?underemployed??working in a job that typically does not require a bachelor?s degree?has risen, particularly since the 2001 recession. Moreover, the quality ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 20

Journal Article
Which Jobs Have Been Hit Hardest by COVID-19?
Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2020-08-17)
Between mid-March and the end of April, U.S. unemployment rolls rose quickly to 33 million, while the unemployment rate jumped to almost 15%.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 3

Journal Article
Challenges with Estimating U Star in Real Time
Tasci, Murat (2019-11)
Although the concept of the natural rate of employment, NAIRU, or ?U star? is used to measure the amount of slack in the labor market, it is an unobservable quantity that must be estimated using data currently available. This Commentary investigates the degree to which our estimates of U star at various points in the current business cycle have changed as real-time data have been revised and as more data points have accumulated. I find that the availability of additional data has contributed to a significant change in our estimates of U star at earlier points in the business cycle, a result ...
Economic Commentary , Issue November

Which Workers Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Amburgey, Aaron; Birinci, Serdar (2020-07-30)
Occupations that earn less than $34,963 on average—such as cashiers, servers and janitors—accounted for 34% of the increase in unemployment from January to April.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers
Krolikowski, Pawel; Fallick, Bruce (2019-08-30)
We examine persistence in employment-to-population ratios in excess of that implied by persistence in aggregate labor market conditions, among less-educated individuals using state-level data for the United States. Dynamic panel regressions and local projections indicate a moderate degree of excess persistence, which dissipates within three years. We find no significant asymmetry between the excess persistence of high vs. low employment rates. The cumulative effect of excess persistence in the business cycle surrounding the 2001 recession was mildly positive, while the effect in the cycle ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-01R

Journal Article
Competitiveness of Ethnic Minority Neighborhoods in Metropolitan Areas in the Seventh District
Toussaint-Comeau, Maude (2017)
This article by senior business economist Maude Toussaint-Comeau explores employment change in ethnic minority neighborhoods in the Seventh District in comparison to job growth within their regions before and after the Great Recession. Among the high-level findings is that ethnic neighborhoods in economically growing metro areas tend to have high job growth, underscoring the value of policies that promote economic inclusion
Profitwise , Issue 4 , Pages 4-25

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