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Discussion Paper
Escaping Unemployment Traps
Acharya, Sushant; Dogra, Keshav; Wee, Shu Lin; Bengui, Julien (2016-11-16)
Economic activity has remained subdued following the Great Recession. One interpretation of the listless recovery is that recessions inflict permanent damage on an economy?s productive capacity. For example, extended periods of high unemployment can lead to skill losses among workers, reducing human capital and lowering future output. This notion that temporary recessions have long-lasting consequences is often termed hysteresis. Another explanation for sluggish growth is the influential secular stagnation hypothesis, which attributes slow growth to long-term changes in the economy?s ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161116

Report
Do consumers rely more heavily on credit cards while unemployed?
Cole, Allison (2016-12-20)
Leading up to the Great Recession, households increased their credit card debt by over 16 percent ($121 billion) during the five-year period from 2004 to 2009. The unemployment rate simultaneously began to rise in 2008, increasing from 5.0 percent in January 2008 to a high of 10.0 percent in October of 2009. During the recovery, from 2009 to 2014, credit card debt fell by more than 25 percent, as the unemployment rate returned to near prerecession levels. These coincident developments have led to speculation that consumers facing unemployment or job uncertainty may have increased their ...
Research Data Report , Paper 16-6

Speech
Living Life Near the ZLB
Williams, John C. (2019-07-18)
Remarks at 2019 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA), New York City.
Speech , Paper 327

Speech
Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook
Williams, John C. (2019-09-04)
Remarks at Euromoney Real Return XIII: The Inflation-Linked Products Conference 2019, New York City.
Speech , Paper 328

Report
Shifts in the Beveridge curve
Sahin, Aysegul; Diamond, Peter A. (2014-08-01)
This note puts the current shift in the Beveridge curve into context by examining the behavior of the curve since 1950. Outward shifts in the Beveridge curve have been common occurrences during U.S. recoveries. By itself, the presence of a shift has not been a good predictor of whether the unemployment rate at the end of the expansion following a shift was higher or lower than that in the preceding expansion.
Staff Reports , Paper 687

Report
Replacement hiring and the productivity-wage gap
Acharya, Sushant; Wee, Shu Lin (2018-06-01)
A large and growing share of hires in the United States are replacement hires. This increase coincides with a growing productivity-wage gap. We connect these trends by building a model where firms post long-lived vacancies and engage in on-the-job search for more productive workers. These features improve a firm's bargaining position while raising workers' job insecurity and the wedge between hiring and meeting rates. All three channels lower wages while raising productivity. Quantitatively, increased replacement hiring explains half the increase in the productivity-wage gap. The socially ...
Staff Reports , Paper 860

Discussion Paper
Expecting the Unexpected: Job Losses and Household Spending
Karahan, Fatih; Pilossoph, Laura; Moore, Brendan (2019-03-27)
Unemployment risk constitutes one of the most significant sources of uncertainty facing workers in the United States. A large body of work has carefully documented that job loss may have long-term effects on one?s career, depressing earnings by as much as 20 percent after fifteen to twenty years. Given the severity of a job loss for earnings, an important question is how much such an event affects one?s standard of living during a spell of unemployment. This blog post explores how unemployment and expectations of job loss interact to affect household spending.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190327

Discussion Paper
Job Ladders and Careers
Karahan, Fatih; Ozkan, Serdar; Moore, Brendan (2019-10-08)
Workers in the United States experience vast differences in lifetime earnings. Individuals in the 90th percentile earn around seven times more than those in the 10th percentile, and those in the top percentile earn almost twenty times more. A large share of these differences arise over the course of people?s careers. What accounts for these vastly different outcomes in the labor market? Why do some individuals experience much steeper earnings profiles than others? Previous research has shown that the ?job ladder??in which workers obtain large pay increases when they switch to better jobs or ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191008

Discussion Paper
Translating Weekly Jobless Claims into Monthly Net Job Losses
Bram, Jason; Karahan, Fatih (2020-05-07)
News headlines highlighting the loss of at least 30 million jobs (so far) underscore the massive shock that has hit the U.S. economy and the dislocation, hardship, and stress it has caused for so many American workers. But how accurately does this number actually capture the number of net job losses? In this post, we look at some of the statistical anomalies and quirks in the weekly claims series and offer a guide to interpreting these numbers. What we find is that the relationship between jobless claims and payroll employment for the month can vary substantially, depending on the nature, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200507a

Report
The gender unemployment gap
Albanesi, Stefania; Sahin, Aysegül (2013-04-01)
The unemployment gender gap, defined as the difference between female and male unemployment rates, was positive until 1980. This gap virtually disappeared after 1980--except during recessions, when men's unemployment rates always exceed women's. We study the evolution of these gender differences in unemployment from a long-run perspective and over the business cycle. Using a calibrated three-state search model of the labor market, we show that the rise in female labor force attachment and the decline in male attachment can mostly account for the closing of the gender unemployment gap. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 613

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