Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 40.

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Report
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds
Williams, John C.; Mertens, Thomas M.; Bok, Brandyn (2022-04-01)
This paper analyzes a new stylized fact: According to financial market prices, the correlation between uncertainty shocks, as measured by changes in the VIX, and changes in break-even inflation rates has declined and turned negative over the past quarter century. It rationalizes this uncertainty-inflation correlation within a standard New Keynesian model with a lower bound on interest rates combined with a decline in the natural rate of interest. With a lower natural rate, the likelihood of the lower bound binding increased and the effects of uncertainty on the economy became more pronounced. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1011

Working Paper
Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings
Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael D.; Richter, Alexander W. (2022-11-23)
A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to bound the true response without directly addressing the identification challenge. A leading example of this practice is the literature on the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity. We prove by counterexample that this practice is invalid in general, whether the data generating process is a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2223

Working Paper
Breaking the “Iron Rice Bowl” and Precautionary Swings: Evidence from Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform
He, Hui; Huang, Feng; Liu, Zheng; Zhu, Dongming (2014-01)
We use China?s large-scale reform of state-owned enterprises (SOE) in the late 1990s as a natural experiment to identify and quantify the importance of precautionary savings for wealth accumulation. Before the reform, SOE workers enjoyed the same job security as government employees. After the reform, a cumulative of over 35 million SOE workers have been laid off, although government employees kept their ?iron rice bowl.? The change in unemployment risks for SOE workers relative to that of government employees before and after the reform provides a clean identification of income uncertainty ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-4

Working Paper
When are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty Large?
Johannsen, Benjamin K. (2014-05-22)
Using a new-Keynesian model with endogenous capital accumulation, I show that uncertainty about fiscal policy can cause large declines in consumption, investment, and output when the zero lower bound (ZLB) binds, but has modest effects when the monetary authority is not constrained by the ZLB. I study uncertainty about the level of government spending and uncertainty about tax rates on consumption, wages, capital income, and investment. In my model, uncertainty about government spending and the wage tax rate has particularly large effects. I show that the effects of fiscal policy uncertainty ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-40

Speech
Thrive in Any Environment: Strengthening Resilience Through Risk Management
Rosenberg, Joshua V. (2019-11-06)
Remarks at the Risk USA Conference, New York City.
Speech , Paper 334

Speech
Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook
Williams, John C. (2019-09-04)
Remarks at Euromoney Real Return XIII: The Inflation-Linked Products Conference 2019, New York City.
Speech , Paper 328

Journal Article
The Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-03-30)
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, has severely disrupted economic activity through various supply and demand channels. The pandemic can also have pervasive economic impact by raising uncertainty. In the past, sudden and outsized spikes in uncertainty have led to large and protracted increases in unemployment and declines in inflation. These effects are similar to those resulting from declines in aggregate demand. Monetary policy accommodation, such as interest rate cuts, can help cushion the economy from such uncertainty shocks.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 07 , Pages 05

Working Paper
Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street
Meyer, Brent; Altig, David E.; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, Nicholas B.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria; Mihaylov, Emil (2021-01-15)
We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-2

Working Paper
Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation
Sheng, Xuguang; Meyer, Brent; Parker, Nicholas B. (2021-03-30)
We rely on the Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey to draw inference about firms' inflation perceptions, expectations, and uncertainty through the lens of firms' unit (marginal) costs. Using methods grounded in the survey literature, we find evidence that the concept of "aggregate inflation" as measured through price statistics like the consumer price index hold very little relevance for business decision makers. This lack of relevance manifests itself through experiments (including randomized controlled trials) that show how researchers word questions to elicit inflation ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-12a

Report
The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis
Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2017-02-01)
This paper examines point and density forecasts from the European Central Bank?s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We derive individual uncertainty measures along with individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. We also explore the relationship between uncertainty and disagreement, as well as their roles in respondents? forecast performance and forecast revisions. We observe substantial heterogeneity in respondents? uncertainty and disagreement. In addition, there is little co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement, and forecast performance shows a more robust ...
Staff Reports , Paper 808

show more (53)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords