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Discussion Paper
How Did China’s COVID-19 Shutdown Affect U.S. Supply Chains?
Heise, Sebastian (2020-05-12)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on trade between the United States and China so far. As workers became sick or were quarantined, factories temporarily closed, disrupting international supply chains. At the same time, the trade relationship between the United States and China has been characterized by rising protectionism and heightened trade policy uncertainty over the last few years. Against this background, this post examines how the recent period of economic disruptions in China has affected U.S. imports and discusses how this episode might impact firms’ supply chains ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200512

Working Paper
Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade
McCallum, Andrew H.; Krolikowski, Pawel (2016-12-23)
We present a tractable framework that embeds goods-market frictions in a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporters and identical importers. These frictions arise because it takes time and expense for exporters and importers to meet. We show that search frictions lead to an endogenous fraction of unmatched exporters, alter the gains from trade, endogenize entry costs, and imply that the competitive equilibrium does not generally result in the socially optimal number of searching firms. Finally, ignoring search frictions results in biased estimates of the effect of tariffs ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1635

Technological Innovations and Global Trade of Services
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Sun, Qiuhan (2020-12-29)
Technological innovations may give the U.S. a significant advantage in the global trade of services, which could potentially help the U.S. close its trade deficit.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Shipping Prices and Import Price Inflation
Rubinton, Hannah; Isaacson, Maggie (2022-08-30)
During the pandemic there have been unprecedented increases in the cost of shipping goods accompanied by delays and backlogs at the ports. At the same time, import price inflation has reached levels unseen since the early 1980s. This has led many to speculate that the two trends are linked. In this article, we use new data on the price of shipping goods between countries to analyze the extent to which increases in the price of shipping can account for the increase in U.S. import price inflation. We find that the pass-through of shipping costs is small. Nevertheless, because the rise in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-017

Speech
Monetary policy in a low inflation and low unemployment economy: remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York, May 21, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-05-21)
Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren explored the current economic environment, characterized by low unemployment and lower-than-target inflation ? which are somewhat opposing signals for monetary policymakers.
Speech , Paper 144

Report
The Dollar’s Imperial Circle
Pelin, Serra; Benigno, Gianluca; Akinci, Ozge; Turek, Jonathan (2022-12-01)
In this paper we highlight a new channel through which dollar fluctuations can become a self-fulfilling pro-cyclical force. We call this mechanism “Imperial Circle” as it makes the dollar the dominant macroeconomic variable in the context of the current international monetary system. At the core of it, there is a fundamental asymmetry between the shrinking exposure of the “real” U.S. economy to global developments versus the growing global role of the U.S. dollar. Dollar appreciation leads to a decline in global economic activity, which in turn benefits, in relative terms, the dollar ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1045

Journal Article
Inefficiency in a Simple Model of Production and Bilateral Trade
Sultanum, Bruno; Bethune, Zachary; Trachter, Nicholas (2018-07)
We study a simple model of over-the-counter trade with production. We characterize the equilibrium, and we show that the equilibrium is always inefficient, independent of how the trade surplus is split among trade participants. We argue that this is due to a double hold-up problem that it is at the core of models used to study trade in over-the-counter markets. Finally, we show an example, which we interpret as a limiting case of the general model where the inefficiency vanishes.
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 137-151

Working Paper
Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade
McCallum, Andrew H.; Krolikowski, Pawel (2019-08-01)
We add goods-market frictions to a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporting producers and identical importing retailers. Our tractable framework leads to endogenously unmatched producers, which attenuate welfare responses to foreign shocks but increase the trade elasticity relative to a model without search costs. Search frictions are quantitatively important in our calibration, attenuating welfare responses to tariffs by 40 percent and increasing the trade elasticity by 50 percent. Eliminating search costs raises welfare by 1 percent and increasing them by only a few ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-35R2

Discussion Paper
What Happened to the U.S. Deficit with China during the U.S.-China Trade Conflict?
Clark, Hunter L.; Wong, Anna (2021-06-21)
The United States’ trade deficit with China narrowed significantly following the imposition of additional tariffs on imports from China in multiple waves beginning in 2018—or at least it did based on U.S. trade data. Chinese data tell a much different story, with the bilateral deficit rising nearly to historical highs at the end of 2020. What’s going on here? We find that (as also discussed in a related note) much of the decline in the deficit recorded in U.S. data was driven by successful efforts to evade U.S. tariffs, with an estimated $10 billion loss in tariff revenues in 2020.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210621b

Working Paper
The Global Diffusion of Ideas
Oberfield, Ezra; Buera, Francisco J. (2015-12-31)
We provide a tractable theory of innovation and technology diffusion to explore the role of international trade in the process of development. We model innovation and diffusion as a process involving the combination of new ideas with insights from other industries or countries. We provide conditions under which each country's equilibrium frontier of knowledge converges to a Frechet distribution, and derive a system of differential equations describing the evolution of the scale parameters of these distributions, i.e., countries' stocks of knowledge. In particular, the growth of a country's ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-13

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