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Working Paper
Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross-section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1 degree F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one-third over the next century.
Working Paper , Paper 18-9

The Impact of Higher Temperatures on Economic Growth

What happens to the economy when it gets hot outside? Despite long-standing assumptions that economic damage from rising global temperatures would be limited to the agricultural sector or developing economies, this Economic Brief presents evidence that higher summer temperatures hurt a variety of business sectors in the United States
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue August

Journal Article
How Long Do Rising Temperatures Affect Economic Growth?

How might rising temperatures around the world affect the growth rate of GDP per person? Examining data across countries over the past half-century shows that a change in temperature affects GDP growth, but only temporarily. Combining estimates from past data with a simple growth model can help project the impacts of future higher temperatures on GDP per person by country. These projections suggest that total global losses in output per person could be substantial, though smaller than if a given change in temperature had a permanent effect on GDP growth.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 15 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics

We use theory and empirics to distinguish between the impact of temperature on transition (temporary) and steady state (permanent) growth in output per capita. Standard economic theory suggests that the long-run growth rate of output per capita is determined entirely by the growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP). We find evidence suggesting that the level of temperature affects the level of TFP, but not the growth rate of TFP. This implies that a change in temperature will have a temporary, but not a permanent, impact on growth in output per capita. To highlight the quantitative ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-20

Working Paper
A Macro Study of the Unequal Effects of Climate Change

This paper develops a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the distributional impacts of higher temperatures in the US. Households adapt to temperature by using energy and equipment for heating and cooling. A key insight is that temperature acts as a transfer from nature, augmenting household income by the value of heating or cooling provided by nature. The welfare effects of climate change vary substantially with income, increasing welfare inequality in the colder parts of the US. This heterogeneity results from the effects of climate change on transfers from nature and on ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-18


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