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Keywords:technological innovations 

Report
Specialization and the skill premium in the 20th century

The skill premium fell substantially in the first part of the 20th century, and then rose at the end of the century. I argue that these changes are connected to the organization of production. When production is organized into large plants, jobs become routinized, favoring less skilled workers. Building on the notion that numerically controlled machines made capital more ?flexible? at the end of the century, the model allows for changes in the ability of capital to do a wide variety of tasks. When calibrated to data on the distribution of plant sizes, the model can account for between half ...
Staff Report , Paper 290

Report
Factor saving innovation

We study a simple model of factor saving technological innovation in a concave framework. Capital can be used either to reproduce itself or, at additional cost, to produce a higher quality of capital that requires less labor input. If higher quality capital can be produced quickly, we get a model of exogenous balanced growth as a special case. If, however, higher quality capital can be produced slowly, we get a model of endogenous growth in which the growth rate of the economy and the rate of adoption of new technologies are determined by preferences, technology, and initial conditions. ...
Staff Report , Paper 301

Working Paper
Do uncertainty and technology drive exchange rates?

This paper investigates the extent to which technology and uncertainty contribute to fluctuations in real exchange rates. Using a structural VAR and bilateral exchange rates, the author finds that neutral technology shocks are important contributors to the dynamics of real exchange rates. Investment-specific and uncertainty shocks have a more restricted effect on international prices. All three disturbances cause short-run deviations from uncovered interest rate parity.
Working Papers , Paper 09-20

Working Paper
Why are semiconductor prices falling so fast? Industry estimates and implications for productivity measurement

By any measure, price deflators for semiconductors fell at a staggering pace over much of the last decade. These rapid declines are typically attributed to technological innovations that lower constant-quality manufacturing costs. But, given Intel's dominance in the microprocessor market, those price declines may also reflect changes in Intel's profit margins. Disaggregate data on Intel's operations are used to explore these issues. There are three basic findings. First, the industry data show that Intel's markups from its microprocessor segment shrank substantially from 1993-99. Second, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2002-20

Working Paper
Technology shocks, employment, and labor market frictions

Recent empirical evidence suggests that a positive technology shock leads to a decline in labor inputs. However, the standard real business cycle model fails to account for this empirical regularity. Can the presence of labor market frictions address this problem without otherwise altering the functioning of the model? We develop and estimate a real business cycle model using Bayesian techniques that allows but does not require labor market frictions to generate a negative response of employment to a technology shock. The results of the estimation support the hypothesis that labor market ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2008-10

Report
Modeling the transition to a new economy: lessons from two technological revolutions

Many view the period after the Second Industrial Revolution as a paradigmatic example of a transition to a new economy following a technological revolution and conjecture that this historical experience is useful for understanding other transitions, including that after the Information Technology Revolution. We build a model of diffusion and growth to study transitions. We quantify the learning process in our model using data on the life cycle of U.S. manufacturing plants. This model accounts quantitatively for the productivity paradox, the slow diffusion of new technologies, and the ongoing ...
Staff Report , Paper 296

Speech
In the lap of the gods

Remarks at the Greater Dallas Chamber Annual State of Technology Luncheon, Dallas, Texas, October 2, 2007. ; "We live in a time when it is fashionable to look at all glasses as half full. Chicken Little rules the roost of economic prognostication. The innovators in this room know differently."
Speeches and Essays , Paper 38

Speech
Asset bubbles and the implications for central bank policy

Remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 21

Working Paper
The global welfare impact of China: trade integration and technological change

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a quantitative Ric a rdian-Heckscher-Ohlin model implemented on 75 countries. We simulate two alternative productivity growth scenarios: a balanced one in which China's productivity grows at the sam e rate in each sector, and an unbalanced one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004), the large majority of countries in the sample, including the developed ones, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-08

Working Paper
Technological change, financial innovation, and diffusion in banking

This paper discusses the technological change and financial innovation that commercial banking has experienced during the past twenty-five years. The paper first describes the role of the financial system in economies and how technological change and financial innovation can improve social welfare. We then survey the literature relating to several specific financial innovations, which we define as new products or services, production processes, or organizational forms. We find that the past quarter century has been a period of substantial change in terms of banking products, services, and ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2009-10

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