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Keywords:spillovers 

Journal Article
The Impact of Foreign Slowdown on the U.S. Economy: An Open Economy DSGE Perspective

Over the course of 2018, economic activity in major advanced foreign economies and emerging markets—including the Euro area and China—decelerated noticeably. In parallel, foreign growth projections for 2019 and 2020 were revised down, signaling potentially large headwinds for the U.S economy over the medium term. In this article, we use a multi-country simulation model to quantify economic spillovers to the United States from a slowdown originating in the Euro area. Next, we compare these results with spillovers from a slowdown originating in China. We find that spillovers to the U.S. ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 26 , Issue 4 , Pages 98-111

Working Paper
Local and Aggregate Fiscal Policy Multipliers

In this paper, we estimate the effect of defense spending on the U.S. macroeconomy since World War II. First, we construct a new panel dataset of state-level federal defense contracts. Second, we sum observations across states and, using the resulting time series, estimate the aggregate effect of defense spending on national income and employment via instrumental variables. Third, we estimate local multipliers using the state-level data, which measures the relative effect on economic activity due to relative differences in defense spending across states. Comparing the aggregate and local ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-4

Report
International banking and cross-border effects of regulation: lessons from the United States

Domestic prudential regulation can have unintended effects across borders and may be less effective in an environment where banks operate globally. Using U.S. micro-banking data for the first quarter of 2000 through the third quarter of 2013, this study shows that some regulatory changes indeed spill over. First, a foreign country?s tightening of limits on loan-to-value ratios and local currency reserve requirements increase lending growth in the United States through the U.S. branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks. Second, a foreign tightening of capital requirements shifts lending by ...
Staff Reports , Paper 793

Speech
The U.S. economy and financial system in an international context

Remarks at the Institute of International Bankers Annual General Meeting, New York City.
Speech , Paper 174

Journal Article
Dealing with Monetary Policy Spillovers

Fed policy has effects outside U.S. borders, but what can monetary policymakers here and abroad do about it?
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 3-5

Speech
Is there room for more monetary cooperation?: panel discussion remarks at the Global Financial Stability in a New Monetary Environment conference, Paris, France

Panel discussion remarks at the Global Financial Stability in a New Monetary Environment conference, Paris, France.
Speech , Paper 218

Working Paper
Local Fiscal Multipliers, Negative Spillovers and the Macroeconomy

This paper analyzes the impact of within-state military spending and national military spending on a state's employment. I estimate that, while within-state spending increases that state's employment (i.e., a positive local effect), an increase in national military spending ceteris paribus decreases employment in the state (i.e., a negative spillover effect). The combined local and spillover effects imply an aggregate employment effect that is close to zero. The estimates are consistent with a resource reallocation explanation: Persons take jobs in or move to a state with increased military ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-26

Working Paper
Monetary Policy Spillovers, Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Financial Channel of Exchange Rates

We assess the empirical validity of the trilemma (or impossible trinity) in the 2000s for a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies. To do so, we estimate Taylor-rule type monetary policy reaction functions, relating the local policy rate to real-time forecasts of domestic fundamentals, global variables, as well as the base-country policy rate. In the regressions, we explore variations in the sensitivity of local to base-country policy rates across different degrees of exchange rate flexibility and capital controls. We find that the data are in general consistent with the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 363

Working Paper
A Cup Runneth Over: Fiscal Policy Spillovers from the 2009 Recovery Act

This paper studies the effects of interregional spillovers from the government spending component of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Recovery Act). Using cross-county Census Journey to Work commuting data, we cluster U.S. counties into local labor markets, each of which we further partition into two subregions. We then compare differential labor market outcomes and Recovery Act spending at the regional and subregional levels using instrumental variables. Our instrument is the sum of spending by federal agencies not instructed to allocate Recovery Act funds according to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-29

Discussion Paper
Will Capital Flows through Global Banks Support Economic Recovery?

While policymakers around the world have aggressively and swiftly reacted to the common negative economic shock from COVID-19, the timing and forms of policy responses in the economic recovery stage may be more geographically differentiated. The range in policy responses, along with variations in the financial health of banks, likely will affect the flow of international credit through global banks. In this post, we ask whether, based on historical precedent, global banks are likely to provide additional support to the economic recovery in the locations they serve.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210301

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