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ICMA's Official Sector Panel on the Transition to Risk Free Rates
This virtual event presented an opportunity to hear from the UK Financial Conduct Authority, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Swiss National Bank, and the European Central Bank about progress and the remaining challenges in the transition from LIBOR/interbank offered rates to risk-free rates, international coordination, and key messages from the official sector for market firms in the run-up to the end of 2021.
Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia
Real risk-free interest rates have trended down over the past 30 years. Puzzlingly in light of this decline, (1) the return on private capital has remained stable or even increased, creating an increasing wedge with safe interest rates; (2) stock market valuation ratios have increased only moderately; (3) investment has been lackluster. We use a simple extension of the neoclassical growth model to diagnose the nexus of forces that jointly accounts for these developments. We find that rising market power, rising unmeasured intangibles, and rising risk premia, play a crucial role, over and ...
Risk-Free Rates and Convenience Yields Around the World
This paper constructs risk-free interest rates implicit in index option prices for ten of the major G11 currencies. We compare these rates to the yields of government bonds to provide international estimates of the convenience yield earned by safe assets. Average convenience yields across countries are highly correlated with the average interest rate in each country, ranging from 2 basis points in low-rate Switzerland to 61 basis points in high-rate Australia, with the moderate-rate United States providing a middling 34 basis points. For each country, a covered interest parity (CIP) deviation ...
Idiosyncratic Investment Risk and Business Cycles
I show that, due to imperfect risk sharing, aggregate shocks to uncertainty about idiosyncratic return on investment generate economic contractions with elevated risk premia and a decrease in the risk-free rate. I present a tractable real business cycle model in which firms experience idiosyncratic shocks, to which managers are at least partially exposed; the distribution of these shocks is time-varying and stochastic. I show that the path for aggregate quantities, the price of physical capital, and the equity premium are the same as in a model without idiosyncratic risk, but with ...
Benchmark Reform and Transition to Risk-Free Rates
This panel covered three main issues: first, progress on the transition to risk-free rates so far, despite the market impact of the coronavirus pandemic; second, remaining challenges to complete implementation of the transition in time, including legacy issues; and third, the importance of international coordination, how this works and what it involves. Panel with Nathaniel Wuerffel, Senior Vice President at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the following individuals: Edwin Schooling Latter, Director of Markets and Wholesale Policy, UK Financial Conduct Authority, Cornelia ...