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Financial Stability Factors and the Severity of the Current Recession [UBS European Virtual Conference]
Economic shocks happen, but the severity of the consequences depends on how fragile, or susceptible to financial instability, the economy was prior to the shock. In the U.S., excessive risk-taking behavior prior to COVID-19 is likely to delay the recovery, even though the initial response by fiscal and monetary policymakers was a prompt and substantial mitigant.
Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery
Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. ...
The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus
Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference).
How Recessions Impact Household Net Worth
Recouping net worth lost during three recessions proved uneven for those with the least wealth.
A Different Kind of Recession
Remarks at the Institute of International Finance: Central Banking in the Age of COVID-19 Summit (delivered via videoconference).
The Economy’s Outlook, Challenges, and Way Forward
Recent economic data have been encouraging, but President Rosengren believes the most difficult part of the recovery is still ahead of us. A full recovery probably requires the availability of vaccines and more effective treatments for the virus because until then, many businesses and households are unlikely to return to more normal spending habits. While he anticipates a slowly improving economy, economic activity still faces serious headwinds. Potential financial impediments and challenges in the labor market make the recovery process more gradual than any of us would prefer. Improvement in ...
Taking Stock of the Economic Recovery and the Opportunities to Bolster Financial Stability
It seems likely that the economy will grow rapidly this year. This should reduce the slack in the labor markets and eventually return inflation to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. Assuming virus variants do not become especially problematic, we should see an unusually strong post-recession recovery. While the near-term public health and macroeconomic improvements are more than welcome and critically important, I also believe that policymakers across the spectrum should take the time to examine some of the problems brought to the forefront over the past year. In doing so, they can ...
Do Longer Expansions Lead to More Severe Recessions?
We are now in one of the longest expansions on record. The recession that preceded that expansion was one of the worst in history. Are those two facts related? Some economists suggest they are, while others suggest it?s the other way around: Longer expansions lead to more severe recessions. We assess the evidence for these two hypotheses. We find clear evidence for the former and little for the latter. Deeper recessions are often followed by stronger recoveries, while longer and stronger expansions are not followed by deeper recessions.
The Economic Recovery: Are We There Yet?
Remarks at Women in Housing and Finance 2021 Annual Symposium (delivered via videoconference).
Banking recovery could be vulnerable to interest rate increases
The earnings on assets?generally loans?may not respond as rapidly as the cost of funds?deposits?leading to declining profits.