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Keywords:recovery 

Speech
A New York Moment

Remarks at The Future of New York City: Charting an Equitable Recovery for All, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech

Working Paper
Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery

Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2108

Speech
Perspectives on the Eventual Economic Recovery

The past year with the pandemic has been grueling. Eleven months after the initial outbreak, economic outcomes for individuals and businesses still remain closely tied to finding and implementing effective public health policy. However, with the successful development of multiple vaccines, it is now possible to imagine much better macroeconomic outcomes ahead. My view is that policymakers must work to ensure that the benefits of the eventual recovery are widely shared. As I’ve mentioned, I believe that as we think about recovery from the pandemic, we should take the time to look for ways ...
Speech

Working Paper
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23

Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, but only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2116

Speech
The Economic Outlook: Getting Back to "More Like Normal"

Remarks at One Hundred Black Men of New York (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Speech
Financial Stability Factors and the Severity of the Current Recession [UBS European Virtual Conference]

Economic shocks happen, but the severity of the consequences depends on how fragile, or susceptible to financial instability, the economy was prior to the shock. In the U.S., excessive risk-taking behavior prior to COVID-19 is likely to delay the recovery, even though the initial response by fiscal and monetary policymakers was a prompt and substantial mitigant.
Speech

Speech
The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus

Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Speech
The Economy’s Outlook, Challenges, and Way Forward

Recent economic data have been encouraging, but President Rosengren believes the most difficult part of the recovery is still ahead of us. A full recovery probably requires the availability of vaccines and more effective treatments for the virus because until then, many businesses and households are unlikely to return to more normal spending habits. While he anticipates a slowly improving economy, economic activity still faces serious headwinds. Potential financial impediments and challenges in the labor market make the recovery process more gradual than any of us would prefer. Improvement in ...
Speech

Speech
The Economy’s Outlook, Challenges, and Way Forward

President Rosengren’s comments were delivered at the Massachusetts Bankers Association’s New England Conference, and were based on a speech he delivered on September 23, 2020 to the Boston Economic Club.
Speech

V-Shaped Recovery Eludes G-7 Countries

Economic growth should overshoot its long-run trend to make up for the downturn caused by the pandemic. So far, this hasn’t happened.
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