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Discussion Paper
Household Services Expenditures: An Update
McCarthy, Jonathan (2012-11-26)
This post updates and extends my July 2011 blog piece on household discretionary services expenditures. I examine the most recent data to see what they reveal about the depth of decline in expenditures in the last recession and the extent of the recovery, and find that the expenditures appear to be further below the peak identified earlier. I then compare the pace of recovery for discretionary and nondiscretionary services in this expansion with that of previous expansions, finding that the pace in both cases is well below that of previous cycles. In summary, household spending continues to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121126

Speech
The road to recovery: Hudson Valley
Dudley, William (2011)
Remarks at the State University of New York at New Paltz, New Paltz, New York.
Speech , Paper 57

Working Paper
Bubbly Recessions
Hanson, Andrew; Phan, Toan; Biswas, Siddhartha (2018-02-22)
We develop a tractable rational bubbles model with financial frictions, downward nominal wage rigidity, and the zero lower bound. The interaction of financial frictions and nominal rigidities leads to a "bubbly pecuniary externality," where competitive speculation in risky bubbly assets can result in excessive investment booms that precede inefficient busts. The collapse of a large bubble can push the economy into a "secular stagnation" equilibrium, where the zero lower bound and the nominal wage rigidity constraint bind, leading to a persistent and inefficient recession. We evaluate a ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-5

Working Paper
Recessions and recoveries in real business cycle models: do real business cycle models generate cyclical behavior?
Wynne, Mark A.; Balke, Nathan S. (1993)
Working Papers , Paper 9322

How Many People Doubled Up after Losing Housing in Aftermath of Past Recessions?
Emmons, William R. (2021-04-21)
People often move in with family or friends because they have lost housing or seek to economize after recessions.
On the Economy

Speech
The Great Recession
Foote, Christopher L. (2010)
Presented on September 10, 2010 at Bentley University to the Financial Planning Association of Massachusetts.
Speech , Paper 41

Journal Article
Productivity During and Since the Pandemic
Fernald, John G.; Li, Huiyu; Meisenbacher, Brigid C.; Yalcin, Aren S. (2024-11-25)
U.S. labor productivity initially surged in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the massive economic upheaval. As the economy recovered, the level of productivity retreated to its slow pre-pandemic trend. As of mid-2024, it remained close to but just above that trend. The surge and retreat in productivity follows the pre-pandemic cyclical relationship in which U.S. productivity rises temporarily in recessions. This example highlights the need to look through temporary cyclical effects when trying to infer longer-run trends.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 31 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Economic hangover: recovery is likely to be prolonged, painful
Emmons, William R. (2010-04)
It's time to pay the piper for our freewheeling spending of the past decade. Although some scenarios for the future economy provide reason to hope, the recovery is likely to be slow and volatile.
The Regional Economist , Issue Apr , Pages 4-9

Journal Article
Does Fiscal Stimulus Work when Recessions Are Caused by Too Much Private Debt?
Loutskina, Elena; Demyanyk, Yuliya; Murphy, Daniel P. (2016-08)
We argue that fiscal stimulus funded by public debt is effective for increasing economic activity and employment even in recessions that are caused by overborrowing in the private sector. We analyze the impact of government spending on local economies between 2007 and 2009 and find evidence that the fiscal multiplier is higher in geographical areas characterized by higher individual household debt. The higher multiplier in those areas might be attributed to a direct increase in both household consumption and local economic slack.
Economic Commentary , Issue August

Working Paper
Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
Taylor, Alan M.; Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz (2013)
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policies. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways. This paper studies the co-evolution of public and private sector debt in advanced countries since 1870. We find that in advanced economies financial stability risks have come from private sector credit booms ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-37

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