Search Results

Showing results 1 to 2 of approximately 2.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Keywords:real-time forecasting 

Discussion Paper
Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation

This note suggests that household wealth growth and a long-forward interest rate can be used to construct a simple and convenient reference standard for assessing the current stance of monetary policy. It shows that the difference between the federal funds rate and this reference interest rate is a powerful predictor of the unemployment rate and inflation, producing real-time forecasts that are competitive with consensus-based forecasts from surveys of forecasting professionals. Moreover, one can understand past FOMC policy actions as efforts to adjust the stance of policy, so measured, in ...
Staff Papers , Issue Dec

Working Paper
The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting

Using state-space modeling, we extract information from surveys of long-term inflation expectations and multiple quarterly inflation series to undertake a real-time decomposition of quarterly headline PCE and GDP-deflator inflation rates into a common long-term trend, common cyclical component, and high-frequency noise components. We then explore alternative approaches to real-time forecasting of headline PCE inflation. We find that performance is enhanced if forecasting equations are estimated using inflation data that have been stripped of high-frequency noise. Performance can be further ...
Working Papers , Paper 1613

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

E31 2 items

E37 2 items

E24 1 items

E27 1 items

E43 1 items

E47 1 items

show more (2)

FILTER BY Keywords

real-time forecasting 2 items

Inflation 2 items

Taylor rule 1 items

Unemployment 1 items

monetary policy 1 items

neutral rate 1 items

show more (4)

PREVIOUS / NEXT