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Tracking the Economic Impact of the Pandemic Using High-Frequency Data
High-frequency data can provide a quicker snapshot of economic conditions than data that take weeks or months to become available.
Holding Space: Underlying Real Estate Conditions for Nonprofits in the Los Angeles Region
Over the past decade, rising real estate costs have led to displacement of low-income residents and small businesses from Los Angeles’ changing neighborhoods. This trend raises questions about the long-term ability of nonprofit organizations that operate in these neighborhoods to remain in place. The recent economic downturn related to the COVID-19 pandemic makes understanding the baseline conditions that nonprofits face in the real estate market even more critical.Previous research suggests that some San Francisco Bay Area nonprofits, particularly those that rent operating space, have ...
Commercial Banks and Real Estate Lending: The Texas Experience
This study analyzes the performance of Texas commercial banks specializing in mortgage lending during the late 1980s and early 1990s to investigate how representative was their experience as compared with that of banks across the country concentrating in real estate lending. The results show that Texas real estate banks (REBs) performed very poorly during the 1980s and early 1990s, but this was because the Texas REBs were clearly different from the majority of the banks classified as REBs in the rest of the country. Texas REBs invested more heavily in commercial mortgages than did other ...
Crime, house prices, and inequality: the effect of UPPs in Rio
We use a recent policy experiment in Rio de Janeiro, the installation of permanent police stations in low-income communities (or favelas), to quantify the relationship between a reduction in crime and the change in the prices of nearby residential real estate. Using a novel data set of detailed property prices from an online classifieds website, we find that the new police stations (called UPPs) had a substantial effect on the trajectory of property values and certain crime statistics since the beginning of the program in late 2008. We also find that the extent of inequality among residential ...
Assessing Targeted Macroprudential Financial Regulation: The Case of the 2006 Commercial Real Estate Guidance for Banks
In January 2006, federal regulators issued guidance requiring banks with specific high concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) loans to tighten managerial controls. This paper shows that banks with concentrations in excess of the thresholds set in the guidance subsequently experienced slower growth in their CRE portfolios than can be explained by changes in bank or economic conditions. Moreover, banks above the CRE thresholds tended to have slower commercial and industrial loan growth but faster household loan growth following issuance of the guidance. The results highlight the ...
Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
Lending standards are a direct measure of credit conditions. We use the micro data merged from three separate sources to construct this measure and document that an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, rather than banks' balance sheet positions, was an important reason that a majority of banks tightened bank lending standards during the Great Recession. Our extensive data analysis disciplines how we introduce credit frictions in the banking sector into a macroeconomic model. The model estimation reveals that an exogenous shock to credit supply drives cyclical lending standards and accounts for a ...
Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies
The Chinese economy has undergone three major phases: the 1978?97 period marked as the SOE-led economy, the 1998?2015 phase as the investment-driven economy, and the new normal economy since 2016. All three economies have been shaped by the government financial policies, defined as a set of credit policy, monetary policy, and regulatory policy. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of these financial policies throughout the three phases and provide the stylized facts to substantiate our analysis. The stylized facts differ qualitatively across different phases or economies. We argue that the ...
Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
We develop a new empirical framework to identify and estimate the effects of monetary stimulus on the real economy. The framework is applied to the Chinese economy when monetary policy in normal times was switched to an extraordinarily expansionary regime to combat the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. We show that this unprecedented monetary stimulus accounted for as high as a 4 percent increase of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate by the end of 2009. Monetary transmission to the real economy was through bank credit allocated disproportionately to financing investment in real ...
Banking Trends: Estimating Today's Commercial Real Estate Risk
To survive a decline in commercial real estate prices such as occurred during the financial crisis, how much more capital do banks today need?
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Residential Real Estate Market
During the spring, the COVID-19 pandemic caused the residential real estate market to decline an average 33% around the country.