Working Paper
The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market
Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Bauer, Michael D. (2020-07-07)
The level of the social discount rate (SDR) is a crucial factor for evaluating the costs ofclimate change. We demonstrate that the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate isthe fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs. Much recent research has pointed to adecrease in the equilibrium real interest rate since the 1990s. Using new estimates of thisdecline, we document a pronounced downward shift in the entire term structure of SDRsin recent decades. This lower new normal for interest rates and SDRs has substantiallyboosted the estimated economic loss from climate change and the social ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-25

Working Paper
Accounting for Low Long-Term Interest Rates: Evidence from Canada
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Shultz, Patrick (2020-11-19)
In recent decades, long-term interest rates around the world have fallen to historic lows. We examine this decline using a dynamic term structure model of Canadian nominal and real yields with adjustments for term, liquidity, and inflation risk premiums. Canada provides a useful case study that has been little examined despite its established indexed debt market, negligible distortions from monetary quantitative easing or the zero lower bound, and no sovereign credit risk. We find that since 2000, the steady-state real interest rate has fallen by more than 2 percentage points, long-term ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-35

Speech
No Man Is an Island
Williams, John C. (2019-11-14)
Remarks at 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
Speech , Paper 337

Speech
Moving toward 'normal' U.S. monetary policy: remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia
Williams, John C. (2018-10-10)
Remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia.
Speech , Paper 296

Speech
When the Facts Change…: remarks at the 9th High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System, Zürich, Switzerland
Williams, John C. (2019-05-14)
Remarks at the 9th High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System, Zrich, Switzerland.
Speech , Paper 320

Speech
Remarks at the 42nd Annual Central Banking Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Williams, John C. (2018-10-01)
Remarks at the 42nd Annual Central Banking Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 293

Speech
'Normal' monetary policy in words and deeds: remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City
Williams, John C. (2018-09-28)
Remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City.
Speech , Paper 292

Speech
Living Life Near the ZLB
Williams, John C. (2019-07-18)
Remarks at 2019 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA), New York City.
Speech , Paper 327

Speech
The economic outlook: the ‘new normal’ is now: remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City
Williams, John C. (2019-03-06)
Remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 310

Journal Article
The Fault in R-Star
Sablik, Timothy (2018-10)
Has the natural rate of interest lost its luster as a navigation aid for monetary policy?
Econ Focus , Issue 4Q , Pages 03-05