Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Regional Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Regional Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
No Man Is an Island
Remarks at 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
A Novel MIMIC-Style Model of European Bank Technical Efficiency and Productivity Growth
Using Bayesian Monte Carlo methods, we augment a stochastic distance function measure of bank efficiency and productivity growth with indicators of capitalization, return and risk. Our novel Multiple Indicator-Multiple Cause (MIMIC) style model generates more precise estimates of policy relevant parameters such as returns to scale, technical inefficiency and productivity growth. We find considerable variation in the performance of EU-15 banks over the period 2008 to 2015. For the vast majority of banks, productivity growth – the sum of efficiency and technical changes – is negative, ...
The U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at the ABNY breakfast with William C. Dudley, the Roosevelt Hotel, New York City
Remarks at the ABNY breakfast with William C. Dudley, the Roosevelt Hotel, New York City.
Transcript of the Cornell College of Business Annual New York City Predictions Event: February 15, 2017
Transcript of the Cornell College of Business Annual New York City Predictions Event: February 15, 2017.
Historical Patterns around Financial Crises
Long-run historical data for advanced economies provide evidence to help policymakers understand specific conditions that typically lead up to financial crises. Recent research finds that rapid growth in the top income share and prolonged low labor productivity growth are robust predictors of crises. Moreover, if crises are preceded by these developments, then the subsequent recoveries are slower. This recent empirical evidence suggests that financial crises are not simply random events but are typically preceded by a prolonged buildup of macrofinancial imbalances.
If we fail to prepare, we prepare to rail: remarks at Council on Foreign Relations, New York City
Remarks at Council on Foreign Relations, New York City.
The economic outlook: the ‘new normal’ is now: remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City
Remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City.
What’s Happening to Productivity Growth?
President's Message: What?s Happening to Productivity Growth?
Discretionary Services Spending Has Finally Made It Back (to 2007)
The current economic expansion is now the third-longest expansion in U.S. history (based on National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] dating of U.S. business cycles). Even so, average growth in this expansion?a 2.1 percent annual rate?has been extraordinarily weak. In this post, I return to previous analysis on a specific portion of consumer spending?household discretionary services expenditures?that has displayed unusual weakness in the current expansion (see this post for the definition of discretionary versus nondiscretionary services expenditures, and these posts from 2012 and 2014 for ...