Search Results
Speech
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Regional Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Regional Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Journal Article
Understanding Patterns in U.S. Regional Economic Growth
An analysis examines how differences in productivity growth and shifting preferences for amenities generate regional variations in U.S. economic growth.
Journal Article
The Future of U.S. Productivity: Cautious Optimism amid Uncertainty
Recent productivity growth likely reflects both cyclical and structural factors, including remote work and AI.
Discussion Paper
Discretionary Services Spending Has Finally Made It Back (to 2007)
The current economic expansion is now the third-longest expansion in U.S. history (based on National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] dating of U.S. business cycles). Even so, average growth in this expansion—a 2.1 percent annual rate—has been extraordinarily weak. In this post, I return to previous analysis on a specific portion of consumer spending—household discretionary services expenditures—that has displayed unusual weakness in the current expansion (see this post for the definition of discretionary versus nondiscretionary services expenditures, and these posts from 2012 and ...
Does Worker Scarcity Spur Investment, Automation and Productivity? Evidence from Earnings Calls
An analysis suggests labor issues like higher wages and hiring difficulties have prompted some firms to invest in automation, leading to productivity growth.
Speech
Transcript of the Cornell College of Business Annual New York City Predictions Event: February 15, 2017
Transcript of the Cornell College of Business Annual New York City Predictions Event: February 15, 2017.
Working Paper
The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?
This paper reviews advanced-economy productivity developments in recent decades. We focus primarily on the facts about, and explanations for, the mid-2000s labor-productivity slowdown in large European countries and the United States. Slower total factor productivity growth was the proximate cause of the slowdown. This conclusion is robust to measurement challenges including the role of intangible assets, rankings of productivity levels, and data revisions. We contrast two main narratives for the stagnating productivity frontier: The shock of the Global Financial Crisis; and a common slowdown ...
Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at the ABNY breakfast with William C. Dudley, the Roosevelt Hotel, New York City
Remarks at the ABNY breakfast with William C. Dudley, the Roosevelt Hotel, New York City.
Journal Article
What’s Happening to Productivity Growth?
President's Message: What?s Happening to Productivity Growth?
Working Paper
Innovative Growth Accounting
Recent work highlights a falling entry rate of new firms and a rising market share of large firms in the United States. To understand how these changing firm demographics have affected growth, we decompose productivity growth into the firms doing the innovating. We trace how much each firm innovates by the rate at which it opens and closes plants, the market share of those plants, and how fast its surviving plants grow. Using data on all nonfarm businesses from 1982-2013, we find that new and young firms (ages Oto 5 years) account for almost one-half of growth- three times their share of ...