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Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 17.
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Speech
The economic outlook: the ‘new normal’ is now: remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City
Remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Does Worker Scarcity Spur Investment, Automation and Productivity? Evidence from Earnings Calls
An analysis suggests labor issues like higher wages and hiring difficulties have prompted some firms to invest in automation, leading to productivity growth.
Discussion Paper
Discretionary Services Spending Has Finally Made It Back (to 2007)
The current economic expansion is now the third-longest expansion in U.S. history (based on National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] dating of U.S. business cycles). Even so, average growth in this expansion—a 2.1 percent annual rate—has been extraordinarily weak. In this post, I return to previous analysis on a specific portion of consumer spending—household discretionary services expenditures—that has displayed unusual weakness in the current expansion (see this post for the definition of discretionary versus nondiscretionary services expenditures, and these posts from 2012 and ...
Speech
No Man Is an Island
Remarks at 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
Journal Article
What’s Happening to Productivity Growth?
President's Message: What?s Happening to Productivity Growth?
Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at the ABNY breakfast with William C. Dudley, the Roosevelt Hotel, New York City
Remarks at the ABNY breakfast with William C. Dudley, the Roosevelt Hotel, New York City.
Journal Article
Understanding Patterns in U.S. Regional Economic Growth
An analysis examines how differences in productivity growth and shifting preferences for amenities generate regional variations in U.S. economic growth.
Working Paper
Innovative Growth Accounting
Recent work highlights a falling entry rate of new firms and a rising market share of large firms in the United States. To understand how these changing firm demographics have affected growth, we decompose productivity growth into the firms doing the innovating. We trace how much each firm innovates by the rate at which it opens and closes plants, the market share of those plants, and how fast its surviving plants grow. Using data on all nonfarm businesses from 1982-2013, we find that new and young firms (ages Oto 5 years) account for almost one-half of growth- three times their share of ...
Speech
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Regional Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Regional Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Journal Article
Historical Patterns around Financial Crises
Long-run historical data for advanced economies provide evidence to help policymakers understand specific conditions that typically lead up to financial crises. Recent research finds that rapid growth in the top income share and prolonged low labor productivity growth are robust predictors of crises. Moreover, if crises are preceded by these developments, then the subsequent recoveries are slower. This recent empirical evidence suggests that financial crises are not simply random events but are typically preceded by a prolonged buildup of macrofinancial imbalances.