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Working Paper
World Productivity: 1996 - 2014
Esfahani, Mehrdad; Hobijn, Bart; Fernald, John G. (2020-03-13)
We account for the sources of world productivity growth, using data for more than 36 industries and 40 major economies from 1996 to 2014, explicitly taking into account changes in the misallocation of resources in labor, capital, and product markets. Productivity growth in advanced economies slowed but emerging markets grew more quickly which kept global productivity growth relatively constant until around 2010. After that, productivity growth in all major regions slowed. Much of the volatility in world productivity growth reflects shifts in the misallocation of labor across countries and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-17

Working Paper
Measuring the “Free” Digital Economy Within the GDP and Productivity Accounts
Soloveichik, Rachel; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Samuels, Jon (2017-10-23)
We develop an experimental methodology that values ?free? digital content through the lens of a production account and is consistent with the framework of the national accounts. We build upon the work in Nakamura, et al. (2016) by combining marketing- and advertising-supported content and find that the impact of ?free? digital content on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) has accelerated in recent years, particularly since 2005. However, the explosion in ?free? digital content is partially offset by a decrease in ?free? print content like newspapers. Including these, real GDP growth would grow ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-37

Journal Article
The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth
Matthes, Christian; Seitelman, Lily; Foerster, Andrew (2020-08-03)
Productivity growth shows evidence of switching between long periods of high and low average growth. Estimates suggest that the United States has been in the low-growth regime since 2004. Assuming this low growth continues, productivity growth in the year 2025 would be 0.6%. By dropping this assumption and allowing for a switch to consistent higher growth, an alternative estimate forecasts that the distribution of possible productivity growth across quarters could average about 1.1% in 2025.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 21 , Pages 5

Report
The Great Recession, entrepreneurship, and productivity performance
Diez, Federico J. (2014-11-01)
In recent years, it is argued, the level of entrepreneurial activity in the United States has declined, causing concern because of its potential macroeconomic implications. In particular, it is feared that a lower rate of firm creation may be associated with lower productivity growth and, hence, lower economic growth in the coming years. This paper studies the issue, focusing on the dynamics of entrepreneurship and productivity around the time of the Great Recession. The author looks first at the recent evolution of alternative measures of entrepreneurship and of productivity, and then ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-8

Report
Combinatorial Growth with Physical Constraints: Evidence from Electronic Miniaturization
Azar, Pablo (2021-05-01)
In the past sixty years, transistor sizes and weights have decreased by 50 percent every eighteen months, following Moore’s Law. Smaller and lighter electronics have increased productivity in virtually every industry and spurred the creation of entirely new sectors of the economy. However, while the effect of the increasing quality of computers and electronics on GDP has been widely studied, the question of how electronic miniaturization affects economic growth has been unexplored. To quantify the effect of electronic miniaturization on GDP, this paper builds an economic growth model that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 970

Newsletter
Wage Growth, Inflation and the Labor Share
Barrow, Lisa; Faberman, R. Jason (2015)
The recent pattern of nominal wage growth has been a puzzle to economists, researchers and policymakers because it lies well below the trend wage growth predicted by inflation and productivity growth. We show that the difference can be reconciled by accounting for the labor share of output, which has been on a declining trend for the past 15 years.
Chicago Fed Letter

Working Paper
Gains from Offshoring? Evidence from U.S. Microdata
Monarch, Ryan; Park, Jooyoun; Sivadasan, Jagadeesh (2014-11-11)
We construct a new linked data set with over one thousand offshoring events by matching Trade Adjustment Assistance program petition data to confidential data on U.S. firm operations. We exploit these data to assess how offshoring affects domestic firm-level aggregate employment, output, wages and productivity. Consistent with heterogenous firm models where offshoring involves a fixed cost, we find that the average offshoring firm is larger and more productive than the average non-offshorer. After initiating offshoring, firms experience large declines in employment (46.2 per cent), output ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1124

Working Paper
Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates
Lunsford, Kurt Graden; West, Kenneth D. (2017-12-21)
We study long-run correlations between safe real interest rates in the United States and over 20 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by the familiar intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long-run correlation with labor force hours growth is positive, which is consistent with overlapping generations models. For ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1723

Working Paper
Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession
Fernald, John G. (2014-06-05)
U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out ?bubble economy? stories related to housing or finance. The slowdown is located in industries that produce information technology (IT) or that use IT intensively, consistent with a return to normal productivity growth after nearly a decade of exceptional IT-fueled gains. A calibrated growth model suggests trend productivity growth has returned close to its 1973-1995 pace. Slower ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-15

Working Paper
Connecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics
Akcigit, Ufuk; Lotti, Francesca; Baslandze, Salomé (2020-04-17)
How do political connections affect firm dynamics, innovation, and creative destruction? To answer this question, we build a firm dynamics model, where we allow firms to invest in innovation and/or political connection to advance their productivity and to overcome certain market frictions. Our model generates a number of theoretical testable predictions and highlights a new interaction between static gains and dynamic losses from rent-seeking in aggregate productivity. We test the predictions of our model using a brand-new dataset on Italian firms and their workers. Our dataset spans the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-5

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