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Working Paper
Measuring the “Free” Digital Economy Within the GDP and Productivity Accounts
Soloveichik, Rachel; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Samuels, Jon (2017-10-23)
We develop an experimental methodology that values ?free? digital content through the lens of a production account and is consistent with the framework of the national accounts. We build upon the work in Nakamura, et al. (2016) by combining marketing- and advertising-supported content and find that the impact of ?free? digital content on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) has accelerated in recent years, particularly since 2005. However, the explosion in ?free? digital content is partially offset by a decrease in ?free? print content like newspapers. Including these, real GDP growth would grow ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-37

Working Paper
Misallocation and Productivity in the Lead Up to the Eurozone Crisis
Dias, Daniel A.; Richmond, Christine; Marques, Carlos Robalo (2015-09-23)
We use Portuguese firm-level data to investigate whether changes in resource misallocation may have contributed to the poor economic performance of some southern and peripheral European countries leading up to the Eurozone crisis. We extend Hsieh and Klenow's (2009) methodology to include intermediate inputs and consider all sectors of the economy (agriculture, manufacturing, and services). We find that within-industry misallocation almost doubled between 1996 and 2011. Equalizing total factor revenue productivity across firms within an industry could have boosted valued-added 48 percent and ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1146

Report
Combinatorial Growth with Physical Constraints: Evidence from Electronic Miniaturization
Azar, Pablo (2021-05-01)
In the past sixty years, transistor sizes and weights have decreased by 50 percent every eighteen months, following Moore’s Law. Smaller and lighter electronics have increased productivity in virtually every industry and spurred the creation of entirely new sectors of the economy. However, while the effect of the increasing quality of computers and electronics on GDP has been widely studied, the question of how electronic miniaturization affects economic growth has been unexplored. To quantify the effect of electronic miniaturization on GDP, this paper builds an economic growth model that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 970

Journal Article
Revisiting Wage Growth after the Recession
Yang, Meifeng; Pinheiro, Roberto (2020-01-31)
In this Commentary, we show that realized wage growth since 2015 has mostly been at a rate that would be expected given observed rates of inflation and labor productivity growth. Moreover, labor productivity growth has been in line with its potential over the same period. This picture of the post-recession recovery of wages is very different from the one we observed in an earlier analysis, when all we had were data up through the end of 2015. The reasons underlying the difference are large revisions in labor productivity data and upticks in the inflation rate and labor productivity growth ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 02 , Pages 5

Journal Article
The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth
Matthes, Christian; Seitelman, Lily; Foerster, Andrew (2020-08-03)
Productivity growth shows evidence of switching between long periods of high and low average growth. Estimates suggest that the United States has been in the low-growth regime since 2004. Assuming this low growth continues, productivity growth in the year 2025 would be 0.6%. By dropping this assumption and allowing for a switch to consistent higher growth, an alternative estimate forecasts that the distribution of possible productivity growth across quarters could average about 1.1% in 2025.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 21 , Pages 5

Working Paper
The Impact of COVID on Potential Output
Li, Huiyu; Fernald, John G. (2021-03-22)
The level of potential output is likely to be subdued post-COVID relative to its previous estimates. Most clearly, capital input and full-employment labor will both be lower than they previously were. Quantitatively, however, these effects appear relatively modest. In the long run, labor scarring could lead to lower levels of employment, but the slow pre-recession pace of GDP growth is unlikely to be substantially affected.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-09

Working Paper
World Productivity: 1996 - 2014
Esfahani, Mehrdad; Hobijn, Bart; Fernald, John G. (2020-03-13)
We account for the sources of world productivity growth, using data for more than 36 industries and 40 major economies from 1996 to 2014, explicitly taking into account changes in the misallocation of resources in labor, capital, and product markets. Productivity growth in advanced economies slowed but emerging markets grew more quickly which kept global productivity growth relatively constant until around 2010. After that, productivity growth in all major regions slowed. Much of the volatility in world productivity growth reflects shifts in the misallocation of labor across countries and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-17

Working Paper
Risk-Taking, Capital Allocation and Optimal Monetary Policy
David, Joel M.; Zeke, David (2021-01-13)
We study the role of firm heterogeneity in affecting business cycle dynamics and optimal stabilization policy. Firms differ in their degree of cyclicality, and hence, exposure to aggregate risk, leading to firm-specific risk premia that influence resource allocations. The heterogeneous firm economy can be recast in a representative firm formulation, but where total factor productivity (TFP) is endogenous and depends on the resource allocation. The model uncovers a novel tradeoff between the long-run level and volatility of TFP. Inefficiencies distort this tradeoff and result in either ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2021-01

Discussion Paper
Endogenous Supply Chains, Productivity, and COVID-19
Azar, Pablo (2021-05-03)
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many industries adapted to new social distancing guidelines by adopting new technologies, providing protective equipment for their employees, and digitizing their methods of production. These changes in industries’ supply chains, together with monetary and fiscal stimulus, contributed to dampening the economic impact of COVID-19 over time. In this post, I discuss a new framework that analyzes how changes in supply chains can drive economic growth in the long run and mitigate recessions in the short run.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210503

Working Paper
“Free” Internet Content: Web 1.0, Web 2.0, and the Sources of Economic Growth
Soloveichik, Rachel; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Samuels, Jon (2018-05-24)
The Internet has evolved from Web 1.0, with static web pages and limited interactivity, to Web 2.0, with dynamic content that relies on user engagement. This change increased production costs significantly, but the price charged for Internet content has generally remained the same: zero. Because no transaction records the ?purchase? of this content, its value is not reflected in measured growth and productivity. To capture the contribution of the ?free? Internet, we model the provision of ?free? content as a barter transaction between the content users and the content creators, and we value ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-17

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