Search Results
Discussion Paper
The Impact of Tariffs on Our Region's Firms
Given recent changes in U.S. tariff policy, we asked Fifth District firms how they expected to be affected by tariff policy in March. At the time, 80 percent of respondent businesses expected to be impacted. In our May surveys, we checked in with firms and found that 72 percent of respondents made business changes in response to tariffs on imports. Firms reported taking a variety of actions. Of the firms that reported making adjustments, most have or plan to increase prices, 47 percent have canceled or delayed capital expenditures, and 41 percent have adjusted hiring plans.
Briefing
What Can News Shocks Tell Us About the Effects of AI?
ver since ChatGPT's release in December 2023, the idea of artificial intelligence (AI) and its promises or dangers for the future of humanity have captured the attention of both the public and policymakers. For instance, AI-based tools are now being introduced in business processes, such as Microsoft incorporating Copilot into Word or customer service increasingly moved to AI chatbots.This immediately raises the question of what the economic impact of AI will be. Will it be on the scale of the steam engine powering the Industrial Revolution? Or will it be more along the lines of the computer, ...
Briefing
Aggregate Effects of the Adoption of AI
AI is holding out the prospect of substantial productivity improvements. While the potential of AI may be large, it is uncertain how much of that potential will be realized and how fast it will occur. Recent estimates of the medium-term AI impact on labor productivity range from negligible to larger than the 1990s IT impact. But should AI meaningfully affect medium-term productivity growth, monetary policy is likely to respond by accommodating the increase in potential output. On the other hand, recalling the 1990s IT diffusion, one should not be too surprised that, even though AI is ...
Discussion Paper
Automation and AI: What Does Adoption Look Like for Fifth District Businesses?
Technological developments shift the kinds of skills needed in the labor force. From innovations in agriculture to electricity to the personal computer to the internet, technology has shaped the way we work and the types of workers we need to produce the goods and provide the services that consumers demand. The tight labor market of the last few years has provided employers with further incentive to find ways to use automation to increase the productivity of existing workers and even reduce the need to hire more. The opportunities of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative AI, ...