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Working Paper
150 years of boom and bust: what drives mineral commodity prices?
Stuermer, Martin (2014-12-12)
My paper provides long-run evidence on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks on mineral commodity prices. I assemble and analyze a new data set of price and production levels of copper, lead, tin, and zinc from 1840 to 2010. Price fluctuations are primarily driven by demand rather than supply shocks. Demand shocks affect the price persistently for up to five-teen years, whereas the effect of mineral supply shocks persists for a maximum of five years. My paper shows that price surges caused by rapid industrialization are a recurrent phenomenon throughout history. Mineral commodity ...
Working Papers , Paper 1414

Speech
Supply Factors and the Evolution of the Economy
Collins, Susan M. (2025-04-10)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan M. Collins delivered the 2025 Razin Economic Policy Lecture on “Supply Factors and the Evolution of the Economy” at Georgetown University. President Collins says her outlook for both economic activity and inflation remains clouded by significant uncertainty, as well as competing risks. She notes supply-side factors have been underappreciated in “understanding how the economy has evolved,” which is “critical for assessing its likely trajectory.” Looking ahead, President Collins expects supply factors will continue to play a key ...
Speech

Report
International shocks and domestic prices: how large are strategic complementarities?
Amiti, Mary; Itskhoki, Oleg; Konings, Jozef (2016-03-01)
How strong are strategic complementarities in price setting across firms? In this paper, we provide a direct empirical estimate of firms? price responses to changes in prices of their competitors. We develop a general framework and an empirical identification strategy to estimate the elasticities of a firm?s price response both to its own cost shocks and to the price changes of its competitors. Our approach takes advantage of a new micro-level data set for the Belgian manufacturing sector, which contains detailed information on firm domestic prices, marginal costs, and competitor prices. The ...
Staff Reports , Paper 771

Discussion Paper
Supply Chain Disruptions Have Eased, But Remain a Concern
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2024-05-20)
Supply chain disruptions became a major headache for businesses in the aftermath of the pandemic. Indeed, in October 2021, nearly all firms in our regional business surveys reported at least some difficulty obtaining the supplies they needed. These supply chain disruptions were a key contributor to the surge in inflation that occurred as the economy recovered from the pandemic recession. In this post, we present new measures of supply availability from our Business Leaders Survey and Empire State Manufacturing Survey that closely track the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240520

Discussion Paper
February Regional Business Surveys Find Widespread Supply Disruptions
Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2021-02-17)
Business activity increased in the region’s manufacturing sector in recent weeks but continued to decline in the region’s service sector, continuing a divergent trend seen over the past several months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s February regional business surveys. Looking ahead, however, businesses expressed widespread optimism about the near-term outlook, with service firms increasingly confident that the business climate will be better in six months. The surveys also found that supply disruptions were widespread, with manufacturing firms reporting longer ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210217a

Speech
Good Day Sunshine
Williams, John C. (2021-06-21)
Remarks at Midsize Bank Coalition of America (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Credit Supply, Prices, and Non-price Mechanisms in the Mortgage Market
Mondragon, John (2024-08-12)
I use an episode of relatively tight credit supply in the jumbo mortgage market to quantify the importance of price and non-price credit supply mechanisms in explaining changes in borrowing. Following market disruptions in March 2020, borrowers with jumbo loans saw significantly tighter credit supply conditions relative to borrowers with conforming loans. As a result, jumbo borrowers were 50 percent less likely to refinance and when they refinanced they borrowed 4-6 percent less than counterfactual borrowers facing looser credit conditions. The reduction in borrowing may have been caused by ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024

Journal Article
How Quickly Do Prices Respond to Monetary Policy?
Bengali, Leila; Arnaut-Hull, Zoë (2024-04-08)
With inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective, there is renewed interest in understanding how quickly federal funds rate hikes typically affect inflation. Beyond monetary policy’s well-known lagged effect on the economy overall, new analysis highlights that not all prices respond with the same strength or speed. Results suggest that inflation for the most responsive categories of goods and services has come down substantially from recent highs, likely due in part to more restrictive monetary policy. As a result, the contributions of these categories to overall inflation ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 10 , Pages 5

Discussion Paper
Does the Rise in Housing Prices Suggest a Housing Bubble?
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Rodriguez, Belicia (2021-09-08)
House prices have risen rapidly during the pandemic, increasing even faster than the pace set before the 2007 financial crisis and subsequent recession. Is there a risk that another dangerous housing bubble is developing? This is a complicated question, and the answer has many components. This post, the first of two, provides a more detailed look at the recent rise in home prices by breaking it down geographically, with a comparison to the pre-2007 bubble. The second post looks at the potential risks to financial stability by comparing the currently outstanding stock of mortgage debt to the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210908a

Discussion Paper
Are Businesses Absorbing the Tariffs or Passing Them On to Their Customers?
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Heise, Sebastian; Hyman, Benjamin; Montalbano, Nick (2025-06-04)
U.S. import tariffs increased to historically high rates in recent months, raising the costs of many imported inputs businesses use. Businesses subject to these higher costs have been faced with difficult and complex decisions about whether to absorb the tariffs through lower profits, raise their prices to recover the higher costs, or some combination of both. These decisions are influenced by the degree of competition in the marketplace, potential customer reactions, and the ability to maintain profit margins, among other factors. Our May survey of businesses in the New York–Northern New ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250604

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