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Discussion Paper
The Impact of Import Tariffs on U.S. Domestic Prices
Heise, Sebastian; Kwicklis, Noah; Amiti, Mary (2019-01-04)
The United States imposed new import tariffs on about $283 billion of U.S. imports in 2018, with rates ranging between 10 percent and 50 percent. In this post, we estimate the effect of these tariffs on the prices paid by U.S. producers and consumers. We find that the higher import tariffs had immediate impacts on U.S. domestic prices. Our results suggest that the aggregate consumer price index (CPI) is 0.3 percent higher than it would have been without the tariffs.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190104

The Pandemic's Impact on Municipal Bonds
Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2021-01-04)
Higher state and local expenditures related to COVID-19, a delayed tax-filing deadline and a lack of liquidity roiled the muni bond market in the early months of the pandemic.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Crude oil export ban benefits some … but not all
Plante, Michael D. (2014-07)
Lifting the U.S. ban on crude oil exports would alleviate a growing glut of oil at the Gulf Coast refineries and should eventually reduce retail gasoline and diesel prices, benefiting U.S. consumers.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 7 , Pages 1-4

Report
Firm-to-Firm Relationships and the Pass-Through of Shocks: Theory and Evidence
Heise, Sebastian (2019-08-01)
Economists have long suspected that firm-to-firm relationships might lower the responsiveness of prices to shocks due to the use of fixed-price contracts. Using transaction-level U.S. import data, I show that the pass-through of exchange rate shocks in fact rises as a relationship grows older. Based on novel stylized facts about a relationship?s life cycle, I develop a model of relationship dynamics in which a buyer-seller pair accumulates relationship capital to lower production costs under limited commitment. The structurally estimated model generates countercyclical markups and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 896

Speech
Peeling the Inflation Onion
Williams, John C. (2022-11-28)
Remarks at the Economic Club of New York (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Price setting in online markets: does IT click?
Talavera, Oleksandr; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sheremirov, Viacheslav (2015-01-01)
Using a unique dataset of daily U.S. and U.K. price listings and the associated number of clicks for precisely defined goods from a major shopping platform, this paper explores how prices are set in online markets, which have a number of special properties such as low search costs, low costs of monitoring competitors' prices, and low costs of nominal price adjustment. High-quality data are not only useful to estimate price rigidity and other properties of price adjustment in online commerce but also allow comparing the behavior of those properties with estimates available from ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-1

Journal Article
Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?
Glick, Reuven; Leduc, Sylvain; Pepper, Mollie (2022-08-08)
Households are currently expecting inflation to run high in the short run but to remain muted over the more distant future. Given this divergence, what role do short-run and long-run household inflation expectations play in determining what workers expect for future wages? Data show that wage inflation is sensitive to movements in household short-run inflation expectations but not to those over longer horizons. This points to an upside risk for inflation, as workers negotiate higher wages that businesses could pass on to consumers by raising prices.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 21 , Pages 6

Discussion Paper
February Regional Business Surveys Find Widespread Supply Disruptions
Bram, Jason; Deitz, Richard (2021-02-17)
Business activity increased in the region’s manufacturing sector in recent weeks but continued to decline in the region’s service sector, continuing a divergent trend seen over the past several months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s February regional business surveys. Looking ahead, however, businesses expressed widespread optimism about the near-term outlook, with service firms increasingly confident that the business climate will be better in six months. The surveys also found that supply disruptions were widespread, with manufacturing firms reporting longer ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210217a

Speech
Good Day Sunshine
Williams, John C. (2021-06-21)
Remarks at Midsize Bank Coalition of America (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Journal Article
How Quickly Do Prices Respond to Monetary Policy?
Bengali, Leila; Arnaut-Hull, Zoë (2024-04-08)
With inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective, there is renewed interest in understanding how quickly federal funds rate hikes typically affect inflation. Beyond monetary policy’s well-known lagged effect on the economy overall, new analysis highlights that not all prices respond with the same strength or speed. Results suggest that inflation for the most responsive categories of goods and services has come down substantially from recent highs, likely due in part to more restrictive monetary policy. As a result, the contributions of these categories to overall inflation ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 10 , Pages 5

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