Is the Fed “Behind the Curve”? Two Interpretations
During a presentation at Princeton University, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard presented two interpretations of whether the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” on raising its policy rate relative to high inflation.
Bullard Discusses Interest Rates and Containing Inflation with MarketWatch
In an interview with MarketWatch during a Barron’s Live event, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard talked about the level of the policy rate needed to put sufficient downward pressure on inflation.Citing his Nov. 17 presentation to Greater Louisville Inc., Bullard reiterated that the policy rate would need to reach at least the bottom end of a 5% to 7% range to be sufficiently restrictive, given the data the Federal Open Market Committee has today.“I also think that we’re going to have to continue to pursue our interest rate increases into 2023, and there’s some risk that we’ll have ...
Bullard Discusses Policy Rate Increases and His Views of U.S. Recession Predictions
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard talked about his preferences for raising the policy rate and his views of recession predictions in remarks during a European Economics and Financial Centre virtual discussion.Bullard said the U.S. economy continues to do very well and that the country has created about 2.7 million jobs in the first six months of the year, “an outstanding number even for a full year.”Although financial markets have been predicting a U.S. recession next year, Bullard said he is “a little skeptical that we’ll get to a recession.” The U.S. economy is slowing, but ...
How Do Survey- and Market-Based Expectations of the Policy Rate Differ?
Over the past year, market pricing on interest rate derivatives linked to the federal funds rate has suggested a significantly lower expected path of the policy rate than responses to the New York Fed’s Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD) and Survey of Market Participants (SMP). However, this gap narrowed considerably from December 2015 to January 2016, before widening slightly at longer horizons in March. This post argues that the narrowing between December and January was mostly the result of survey respondents placing greater weight on lower rate outcomes, while the subsequent widening ...
Teaching the Linkage Between Banks and the Fed: R.I.P. Money Multiplier
The money multiplier has been a standard concept in introductory economics classes for decades, but changes in the way the Fed implements monetary policy has made the model obsolete. This issue provides information about the linkages between the Fed and the banking system and provides teaching suggestions.
Bullard Discusses Policy Rate Increases and U.S. Inflation
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed the pace of increases in the Fed’s policy rate and the impact on inflation. He made the comments during a virtual discussion at an HSBC Global Emerging Markets Forum.Bullard said the U.S. inflation rate was way above the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2% target, which is why the FOMC has moved aggressively to raise its policy rate. He also pointed to forecasts made by FOMC members in September’s Summary of Economic Projections that suggest additional moves in the policy rate this year.“We’re hopeful that by acting sooner and with ...
Is Monetary Policy Sufficiently Restrictive?
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard examines whether the policy rate could be considered sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time.
Capital Flows and Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets around Fed Tightening Cycles
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes in 2022–23 raised concerns about spillover effects on smaller emerging market and developing economies. Historically, a higher U.S. federal funds rate has been associated with international investors withdrawing capital from emerging markets, which can lead to lower economic activity and depreciating exchange rates in these markets—and, in turn, greater financial vulnerability. To reduce capital outflows, central banks in emerging markets can tighten their own monetary policy rates to increase yields on debt securities. But raising interest ...
Bullard Talks about Policy Rate and “Soft Landing” Prospects with Wall Street Journal
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed his expectations for the policy rate and inflation and the prospects for a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy in a live interview with The Wall Street Journal.Bullard said that his policy rate projection included in the FOMC’s December Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP, was for a target range of 5.25% to 5.5% at the end of 2023, which is slightly higher than the median projection. He cautioned that it’s not certain where the economy or inflation will be then.“The underlying judgment on my part is that inflation will probably ...
Bullard Discusses U.S. Monetary Policy with CNBC
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed inflation, the tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases, and his projections for the policy rate in 2022 during an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe. The interview was recorded Nov. 9.