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Working Paper
Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2021-02)
I study the effects of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak in the United States and subsequent fiscal policy response in a nonlinear DSGE model. The pandemic is a shock to the utility of contact-intensive services that propagates to other sectors via general equilibrium, triggering a deep recession. I use a calibrated version of the model that matches the path of the US unemployment rate in 2020 to analyze different types of fiscal policies. I find that the pandemic shock changes the ranking of policy multipliers. Unemployment benefits are the most effective tool to stabilize income for borrowers, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-006

Working Paper
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations
Meyer, Brent; Prescott, Brian; Sheng, Xuguang (2020-09-04)
We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms reports significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruption, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-17

Working Paper
The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Optimal Mitigation Policies
Hur, Sewon (2022-05-12)
This paper develops a quantitative heterogeneous agent–life cycle model with a fully integrated epidemiological model in which economic decisions affect the spread of COVID-19 and vice versa. The calibrated model is used to study the distributional consequences and effectiveness of mitigation policies such as a stay-at-home subsidy and a stay-at-home order. First, the stay-at-home subsidy is preferred because it reduces deaths by more and output by less, leading to a larger average welfare gain that benefits all individuals. Second, Pareto-improving mitigation policies can reduce deaths by ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 400

Speech
Restoring Balance
Williams, John C. (2022-02-18)
Remarks at New Jersey City University (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Speech
Financial Stability Factors and the Severity of the Current Recession [UBS European Virtual Conference]
Rosengren, Eric S. (2020-11-10)
Economic shocks happen, but the severity of the consequences depends on how fragile, or susceptible to financial instability, the economy was prior to the shock. In the U.S., excessive risk-taking behavior prior to COVID-19 is likely to delay the recovery, even though the initial response by fiscal and monetary policymakers was a prompt and substantial mitigant.
Speech

Report
COVID Response: The Primary Dealer Credit Facility
McLaughlin, Susan; Martin, Antoine (2021-09-01)
The Federal Reserve established a new Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) in March 2020, to allow primary dealers to support smooth market functioning and facilitate the availability of credit to businesses and households, in the face of deteriorating conditions in the market for triparty repo financing due to the coronavirus pandemic. A similar facility had been established in March 2008 to help restore the orderly functioning of the market, following the near-bankruptcy of Bear Stearns, and to prevent the spillover of distress to other financial firms. This paper provides an overview of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 981

Discussion Paper
The Money Market Fund Liquidity Facility
Orchinik, Reed; Cipriani, Marco; La Spada, Gabriele; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ (2020-05-08)
Over the first three weeks of March, as uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic increased, prime and municipal (muni) money market funds (MMFs) faced large redemption pressures. Similarly to past episodes of industry dislocation, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2011 European bank crisis, outflows from prime and muni MMFs were mirrored by large inflows into government MMFs, which have historically been seen by investors as a safe haven in times of crisis. In this post, we describe a liquidity facility established by the Federal Reserve in response to these outflows.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200508

Discussion Paper
How Much Have Consumers Spent on Imports during the Pandemic?
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2021-10-22)
The return of U.S. real GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of this year was driven by consumer spending on goods. Such spending was well above its pre-pandemic path, while spending on services was well below. Despite the surge in goods spending, domestic manufacturing has increased only modestly, leaving most of the increase in demand being filled by imports. While higher imports have been a drag on growth, the size of this drag has been moderated by the value created by the domestic transportation, wholesale, and retail sectors in selling these goods. Going forward, a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211022

Speech
537 Days: Time Is Still Ticking
Williams, John C. (2020-07-13)
Remarks at LIBOR: Entering the Endgame (a webinar hosted by the Bank of England and the New York Fed) .
Speech

Discussion Paper
Treasury Market Liquidity and the Federal Reserve during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Fleming, Michael J. (2020-05-29)
Many of the actions taken by the Federal Reserve during the COVID-19 pandemic are intended to address a deterioration of market functioning. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced purchases of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), in particular, “to support the smooth functioning of markets” in those securities. Last month, we showed in this post how one metric of functioning for the Treasury market, market illiquidity, jumped to unusually high levels in March amid massive uncertainty about the economic effects of the pandemic. In this post, we ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200529a

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