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Journal Article
All the City Was Dying
Romero, Jessica Sackett (2017-04)
The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-1919 was a major social and economic shock
Econ Focus , Issue 2Q , Pages 30-33

Journal Article
News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Shapiro, Adam Hale; Sudhof, Moritz; Wilson, Daniel J. (2020-04-06)
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing severe disruptions to daily life and economic activity. Reliable assessments of the economic fallout in this rapidly evolving situation require timely data. Existing sentiment indexes are useful indicators of current and future spending but are only available with a lag or have a short history. A new Daily News Sentiment Index provides a way to measure sentiment in real time from 1980 to today. Compared with survey-based measures of consumer sentiment, this index shows an earlier and more pronounced drop in sentiment in recent weeks.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 08 , Pages 05

Speech
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
Daly, Mary C. (2022-04-20)
Presentation to the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) Spring Outlook 2022,April 20, 2022, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Speech
A New York Moment
Williams, John C. (2022-03-31)
Remarks at The Future of New York City: Charting an Equitable Recovery for All, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech

Speech
The Right Tools for Our Time
Williams, John C. (2022-05-10)
Remarks at NABE/Bundesbank International Economic Symposium Eltville am Rhein, Germany.
Speech

Working Paper
The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Optimal Mitigation Policies
Hur, Sewon (2021-03-26)
This paper develops a quantitative heterogeneous agent-life cycle model with a fully integrated epidemiological model in which economic decisions affect the spread of COVID-19 and vice versa. The calibrated model is used to study the distributional consequences and effectiveness of mitigation policies such as a stay-at-home subsidy and a stay-at-home order. First, the stay-at-home subsidy is preferred because it reduces deaths by more and output by less, leading to a larger average welfare gain that benefits all individuals. Second, Pareto-improving mitigation policies can reduce deaths by ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 400

Working Paper
Pandemic Recessions and Contact Tracing
Melosi, Leonardo; Rottner, Matthias (2020-11-20)
We study contact tracing in a new macro-epidemiological model in which infected agents may not show any symptoms of the disease and the availability of tests to detect these asymptomatic spreaders of the virus is limited. Contact tracing is a testing strategy aiming at reconstructing the infection chain of newly symptomatic agents. A coordination failure arises as agents fail to internalize that their individual consumption and labor decisions raise the number of traceable contacts to be tested, threatening the viability of the tracing system. The collapse of the tracing system considerably ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-31

Discussion Paper
The Money Market Fund Liquidity Facility
Orchinik, Reed; Cipriani, Marco; La Spada, Gabriele; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ (2020-05-08)
Over the first three weeks of March, as uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic increased, prime and municipal (muni) money market funds (MMFs) faced large redemption pressures. Similarly to past episodes of industry dislocation, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2011 European bank crisis, outflows from prime and muni MMFs were mirrored by large inflows into government MMFs, which have historically been seen by investors as a safe haven in times of crisis. In this post, we describe a liquidity facility established by the Federal Reserve in response to these outflows.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200508

Working Paper
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-11-19)
Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, but only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2116

Speech
The Impact of the Pandemic on Cultural Capital in the Finance Industry
Stiroh, Kevin J. (2020-11-16)
Remarks at the Risk USA Conference (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

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