Search Results

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Keywords:oil prices OR Oil prices OR Oil Prices 

Journal Article
What could lower prices mean for U.S. oil production?

U.S. oil and natural gas production has grown significantly since 2005, reflecting a move toward shale gas and tight oil extraction. Since 2011, the most productive tight oil and shale gas fields accounted for nearly all of the growth in U.S. energy production, due largely to extensive use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. High energy prices made these costly technologies profitable to apply on a large scale. However, oil prices and rig counts declined sharply in 2014, calling into question whether the boom in U.S. oil production can continue. Nida ak?r Melek examines how ...
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 51-69

Discussion Paper
A New Approach for Identifying Demand and Supply Shocks in the Oil Market

An oil-price spike is often used as the textbook example of a supply shock. However, rapidly rising oil prices can also reflect a demand shock. Recognizing the difference is important for central bankers. A supply-driven increase in the price of oil can result in higher unemployment and inflation, leaving central bankers with the difficult decision to loosen policy, tighten policy, or not respond at all. A demand-driven increase reflecting global growth may support the case for tighter policy. In this post, we describe an approach for decomposing oil price changes into supply and demand ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130325

Geopolitical oil price risk not a major driver of global macroeconomic fluctuations

Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is unlikely to generate sizable recessionary effects.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Forecasts of inflation and interest rates in no-arbitrage affine models

In this paper, we examine the forecasting ability of an affine term structure framework that jointly models the markets for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no-arbitrage restrictions across these markets. On the methodological side, we propose a novel way of incorporating information from these markets into an affine model. On the empirical side, two main findings emerge from our analysis. First, incorporating information from inflation options can often produce more accurate inflation forecasts than those based on the Survey of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2016-3

Discussion Paper
Putting the Current Oil Price Collapse into Historical Perspective

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in late January, oil prices have fallen sharply. In this post, we compare recent price declines with those seen in previous oil price collapses, focusing on the drivers of such episodes. In order to do that, we break oil price shocks down into demand and supply components, applying the methodology behind the New York Fed’s weekly Oil Price Dynamics Report.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200514

Working Paper
Fuel subsidies, the oil market and the world economy

This paper studies the e ffects of oil producing countries' fuel subsidies on the oil market and the world economy. We identify 24 oil producing countries with fuel subsidies where retail fuel prices are about 34 percent of the world price. We construct a two-country model where one country represents the oil-exporting subsidizers and the second the oil-importing bloc, and calibrate the model to match recent data. We find that the removal of subsidies would reduce the world price of oil by six percent. The removal of subsidies is unambiguously welfare enhancing for the oil-importing ...
Working Papers , Paper 1407

Working Paper
Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area

We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a regime-switching vector autoregressive model we identify two regimes that are characterized by qualitatively different patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price shocks trigger only limited and short-lived adjustments in these variables. In the 'adverse regime', by contrast, oil price shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-063

Journal Article
Oil Shocks when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound

New evidence suggests that rising oil prices associated with declining oil supply slow economic activities less when interest rates are constrained at the zero lower bound. Moreover, these oil price spikes can even increase overall output. Evidence points to the following explanation. An oil supply shock raises inflation in all periods, but the nominal interest rate does not react under the zero lower bound, so the shock reduces the real interest rate, stimulating demand in the economy.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 34 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Drilling Productivity in the United States: What Lies Beneath

We construct new measures of drilling productivity and find that productivity increased sixfold from the mid-2000s to early 2017. Gains in below-ground efficiency?the number of barrels produced per foot of drilled wells?have largely driven this increase in overall productivity. The large oil price declines during the Great Recession and from 2014 to 2016 also played a role. However, further large increases in productivity are unlikely absent additional improvements in technology or a subsequent large downturn in oil prices.
Economic Bulletin , Issue May 22, 2019 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Oil Prices and Consumption across Countries and U.S. States

We study the effects of oil prices on consumption across countries and U.S. states, by exploiting the time-series and cross-sectional variation in oil dependency of these economies. We build two large datasets: one with 55 countries over the years 1975-2018, and another with all U.S. states over the period 1989-2018. We then show that oil price declines generate positive effects on consumption in oil-importing economies, while depressing consumption in oil-exporting economies. We also document that oil price increases do more harm than the good afforded by oil price decreases both in the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1263

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

G1 6 items

E2 5 items

F00 4 items

Q41 4 items

C32 3 items

Q43 3 items

show more (16)

FILTER BY Keywords

Oil prices 12 items

oil prices 9 items

Oil Prices 5 items

Energy 3 items

Asset Prices 2 items

Inflation expectations 2 items

show more (60)

PREVIOUS / NEXT