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Working Paper
Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Willen, Paul S. (2013-08-01)
This paper exploits matched data from the PSID on borrower mortgages with income and demographic data to quantify the relative importance of negative equity, versus lack of ability to pay, as affecting default between 2009 and 2013. These data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay. We use instrumental variables to quantify the impact of ability to pay, including job loss and disability, versus negative equity. Changes in ability to pay have the largest estimated effects. Job loss has an equivalent effect on default likelihood as a 35 ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-04

Interest rate volatility contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2022
Frame, W. Scott; McCormick, Matthew (2023-04-04)
The Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy in 2022, responding to high and persistent inflation. The resulting borrowing cost increase for households and firms was generally anticipated. However, fixed-rate mortgage interest rates were especially sensitive to the policy regime change.
Dallas Fed Economics

Report
How mortgage finance affects the urban landscape
Tracy, Joseph; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Chan, Sewin (2015-02-01)
This chapter considers the structure of mortgage finance in the U.S., and its role in shaping patterns of homeownership, the nature of the housing stock, and the organization of residential activity. We start by providing some background on the design features of mortgage contracts that distinguish them from other loans, and that have important implications for issues presented in the rest of the chapter. We then explain how mortgage finance interacts with public policy, particularly tax policy, to influence a household?s decision to own or rent, and how shifts in the demand for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 713

Discussion Paper
Just Released: Who's Borrowing Now? The Young and the Riskless!
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Yun, David; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2014-02-18)
According to today’s release of the New York Fed’s 2013:Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report, aggregate consumer debt increased by $241 billion in the fourth quarter, the largest quarter-to-quarter increase since 2007. More importantly, between 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q4, total household debt rose $180 billion, marking the first four-quarter increase in outstanding debt since 2008. As net household borrowing resumes, it is interesting to see who is driving these balance changes, and to compare some of today’s patterns with those of the boom period.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140218b

Journal Article
The When, What and Where of Consumer Debt: The View from Cook County
Amromin, Gene; McGranahan, Leslie (2016)
Consumer debt grew rapidly in the years leading up to the Great Recession, and contracted sharply in its immediate aftermath. This credit cycle played out unevenly among households with different financial means and in different parts of the country. While much attention has been paid to mortgages, other debt categories, such as automobile and student, play an important role in household finances. Consequently, we analyze trends in both mortgage and non-mortgage debt across income groups during the period surrounding the Great Recession.
Profitwise , Issue 3 , Pages 6-11

Discussion Paper
The Role of Educational Attainment in Household Debt and Delinquency Disparities
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Chatterji-Len, Kasey; Avtar, Ruchi (2021-11-17)
This post concludes a three-part series exploring the gender, racial, and educational disparities of debt outcomes of college students. In the previous two posts, we examined how debt holding and delinquency behaviors vary among students of different race and gender, breaking up our analyses by level of degree pursued by the student. We found that Black and Hispanic students were less likely than white students to take on credit card debt, auto loans, and mortgage debt, but experienced higher rates of delinquency in each of these debt areas by the age of 30. In contrast, Black students were ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211117c

Discussion Paper
Why are Adjustable Rate Mortgages So Rare These Days?
Vickery, James (2011-05-11)
The fraction of mortgage borrowers who choose an adjustable-rate loan has fallen significantly over the past five years or so. Although the fraction edged up slightly in 2010, it remains close to historic lows, with less than 10 percent of mortgage originations since 2009 featuring an adjustable interest rate. What explains the striking decline? And what are its implications for borrowers and policymakers?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110511

Report
The role of technology in mortgage lending
Schnabl, Philipp; Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas; Plosser, Matthew (2018-02-01)
Technology-based (?FinTech?) lenders increased their market share of U.S. mortgage lending from 2 percent to 8 percent from 2010 to 2016. Using market-wide, loan-level data on U.S. mortgage applications and originations, we show that FinTech lenders process mortgage applications about 20 percent faster than other lenders, even when controlling for detailed loan, borrower, and geographic observables. Faster processing does not come at the cost of higher defaults. FinTech lenders adjust supply more elastically than other lenders in response to exogenous mortgage demand shocks, thereby ...
Staff Reports , Paper 836

Discussion Paper
Evaluating the Benefits of a Streamlined Refinance Program
Willen, Paul S.; Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Loewenstein, Lara (2020-06-25)
Mortgage borrowers who have experienced employment disruptions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic are unable to refinance their loans to take advantage of historically low market rates. In this article, we analyze the effects of a streamlined refinance ("refi") program for government-insured loans that would allow borrowers to refinance without needing to document employment or income. In addition, we consider a cash-out component that would allow borrowers to extract some of the substantial amount of housing equity that many have accumulated in recent years.
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-08

Journal Article
GSE guarantees, financial stability, and home equity accumulation
Passmore, Wayne; von Hafften, Alexander H. (2018-24-03)
Before 2008, the government?s ?implicit guarantee? of the securities issued by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac led to practices by these institutions that threatened financial stability. In 2008, the Federal Housing Finance Agency placed these GSEs into conservatorship. Conservatorship was intended to be temporary but has now reached its tenth year, and policymakers continue to weigh options for reform. In this article, the authors assess both implicit and explicit government guarantees for the GSEs. They argue that adopting a legislatively defined ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 11-27

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