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Keywords:monetary policy 

Working Paper
The limits of forward guidance

The viability of forward guidance as a monetary policy tool depends on the horizon over which it can be communicated and its influence on expectations over that horizon. We develop and estimate a model of imperfect central bank communications and use it to measure how effectively the Fed has managed expectations about future interest rates and the influence of its communications on macroeconomic outcomes. Standard models assume central banks have perfect control over expectations about the policy rate up to an arbitrarily long horizon and this is the source of the so-called ?forward guidance ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2019-3

Speech
No Man Is an Island

Remarks at 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
Speech , Paper 337

Speech
Bank of Korea International Conference Panel Comments

Remarks for the Bank of Korea International Conference 2010, June 1, 2010 Seoul, Korea
Speech , Paper 41

Speech
Should the Fed regularly evaluate its monetary policy framework?: remarks at the Fall 2018 Conference, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Brookings Institution, Washington D.C., September 14, 2018

These slides represent the combined perspectives of President Rosengren and his co-authors, Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, Giovanni P. Olivei, and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell.
Speech

Speech
An Update on the Economy and the Main Street Lending Program

Today I would like to speak with you about the pandemic, its effects on the economy, the implications for Federal Reserve policymaking, and some of the steps that the Fed is taking to address the crisis and mitigate its financial impact on American households and businesses.
Speech

Working Paper
Optimal monetary policy under model uncertainty without commitment

This paper studies the design of optimal time-consistent monetary policy in an economy where the planner trusts its own model, while a representative household uses a set of alternative probability distributions governing the evolution of the exogenous state of the economy. In such environments, unlike in the original studies of time-consistent monetary policy, managing households' expectations becomes an active channel of optimal policymaking per se, a feature that the paternalistic government seeks to exploit. We adapt recursive methods in the spirit of Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990) ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-20

Speech
Central bank balance sheets: misconceptions and realities: remarks at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference, Hong Kong, China, March 26, 2019

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren explored misconceptions about the Fed?s balance sheet ? the assets the central bank holds, and the liabilities and capital used to finance those assets ? in a speech in Hong Kong.
Speech , Paper 142

Working Paper
The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board

Large-scale macroeconomic models have been used at the Federal Reserve Board for nearly thirty years. After briefly reviewing the first generation of Fed models, which were based on the IS/LM/Phillips curve paradigm, the paper describes the structure and properties of a new set of models. The new models are more explicit in their treatment of expectations formation and household and firm intertemporal decisionmaking. The incorporation of more rigorous theoretical microfoundations is accomplished while maintaining a high standard of goodness of fit. Simulations illustrate the effects of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1997-29

Discussion Paper
Assessing monetary accommodation: a simple empirical model of monetary policy and its implications for unemployment and inflation

This note suggests that household wealth growth and a long-forward interest rate can be used to construct a simple and convenient reference standard for assessing the current stance of monetary policy. It shows that the difference between the federal funds rate and this reference interest rate is a powerful predictor of the unemployment rate and inflation, producing real-time forecasts that are competitive with consensus-based forecasts from surveys of forecasting professionals. Moreover, one can understand past FOMC policy actions as efforts to adjust the stance of policy, so measured, in ...
Staff Papers , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Forward Guidance during the Pandemic: Has It Changed the Public’s Expectations?

In responding to the COVID-19 crisis, the Federal Reserve has both lowered the federal funds rate and provided forward guidance. We study whether the forward guidance given with the April and June 2020 FOMC meetings altered the public’s expectations of future policy rates, GDP growth, and inflation. We find that forward guidance was effective in altering the public’s expectations about future policy rates if it was accompanied by an SEP but not expectations about economic fundamentals. We suggest that the difference might be explained by FOMC statements being interpretable in two ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2020 , Issue 27 , Pages 7

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