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Briefing
Projecting the Evolution of the Fed's Balance Sheet
Kirk, Kyler; Ennis, Huberto M. (2022-04)
As the Fed embarks on balance sheet policy normalization, there is natural interest in understanding the projected evolution of the Fed's asset portfolio over the next three to four years. Several important assumptions are needed to be able to predict the path of the balance sheet. Based exclusively on public information, we use alternative sets of plausible assumptions to construct and analyze several different scenarios for the future of this critical policy-relevant lever.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 15

Journal Article
Evaluating Monetary Policy with Inflation Bands and Horizons
Davig, Troy A.; Foerster, Andrew (2023-02-21)
Inflation targeting has become the dominant way countries approach setting monetary policy goals. However, central banks differ in how they conduct that policy and how they evaluate their success in meeting a stated inflation goal. A new assessment method combines a percentage range around a target, known as an inflation tolerance band, with central banks stating how long it will take for high or low inflation to return to that range, known as a time horizon. Comparing previously projected horizons with realized horizons can be used to evaluate policy success.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 05 , Pages 6

Briefing
Detecting Inflation Instability
Wolman, Alexander L. (2023-03)
In a stable monetary policy regime, the share of relative price increases helps to explain monthly inflation fluctuations. We illustrate this regularity with U.S. data from January 1995 through February 2020, then we use it to evaluate whether the regime has remained stable during the pandemic period. From March 2021 to February 2022, the behavior of inflation and the share of relative price increases was inconsistent with the pre-pandemic regime. Recent data show some signs of a return to that regime.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 11

Report
Overnight RRP operations as a monetary policy tool: some design considerations
Frost, Josh; Logan, Lorie; Martin, Antoine; McCabe, Patrick E.; Natalucci, Fabio M.; Remache, Julie (2015-02-01)
We review recent changes in monetary policy that have led to development and testing of an overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility, an innovative tool for implementing monetary policy during the normalization process. Making ON RRPs available to a broad set of investors, including nonbank institutions that are significant lenders in money markets, could complement the use of the interest on excess reserves (IOER) and help control short-term interest rates. We examine some potentially important secondary effects of an ON RRP facility, both positive and negative, including ...
Staff Reports , Paper 712

Speech
Discussion of "Monetary Policy Transmission to Real Activity"
Williams, John C. (2025-03-07)
Remarks at the 2025 US Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.
Speech

Working Paper
Federal Reserve Structure, Economic Ideas, and Monetary and Financial Policy
Prescott, Edward Simpson; Bordo, Michael D. (2019-06-21)
The decentralized structure of the Federal Reserve System is evaluated as a mechanism for generating and processing new ideas on monetary and financial policy. The role of the Reserve Banks starting in the 1960s is emphasized. The introduction of monetarism in the 1960s, rational expectations in the 1970s, credibility in the 1980s, transparency, and other monetary policy ideas by Reserve Banks into the Federal Reserve System is documented. Contributions by Reserve Banks to policy on bank structure, bank regulation, and lender of last resort are also discussed. We argue that the Reserve Banks ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-13

Discussion Paper
Real Inventory Slowdowns
Lucca, David O.; McQuillan, Casey; Crump, Richard K. (2019-11-18)
Inventory investment plays a central role in business cycle fluctuations. This post examines whether inventory investment amplifies or dampens economic fluctuations following a tightening in financial conditions. We find evidence supporting an amplification mechanism. This analysis suggests that inventory accumulation will be a drag on economic activity this year but provide a boost in 2020.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191118

Journal Article
The KC Fed LMCI Momentum Indicator Suggests Monetary Policy Is Beginning to Weigh on Labor Markets
Pollard, Emily; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2023-02-03)
The Federal Open Market Committee has been quickly raising the federal funds rate to lower inflation. However, services inflation remains high, supported by a tight labor market with high wage growth. Recent readings in the LMCI momentum indicator suggest monetary policy tightening is beginning to weigh on labor markets, which may eventually lead to lower services inflation and lower inflation overall.
Economic Bulletin , Issue February 3rd, 2023 , Pages 4

Speech
Prepared Welcoming Remarks
Musalem, Alberto G. (2025-04-23)
Musalem delivered welcoming remarks and introduced Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller at a Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Speech

Working Paper
The Bank Lending Channel Is Back
Spiegel, Mark M. (2025-02-11)
The period following the global financial crisis was marked by low interest rates and low responsiveness of bank lending to monetary policy. This led some to conclude that the bank lending channel for monetary policy to influence economic activity had weakened. This paper revisits the responsiveness of the bank lending channel using a bank-level panel of US Call Report data and updated measures of U.S. monetary policy shocks. Results indicate that the efficacy of the bank lending channel increased over our sample period. We find tepid responses in bank lending to monetary shocks from 2012H1 ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2025-04

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