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Speech
Weighing the risks to the economic outlook: remarks at The Leo J. Meehan School of Business, Stonehill College, Easton, Massachusetts, September 3, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-09-03)
It was an eventful August in the financial markets amid talk of additional tariffs and tax cuts, the falling 10-year Treasury rate, and volatility in stock prices. But the economic data and forecasts indicate a relatively good domestic economy.
Speech , Paper 147

Speech
Among Opposing Forces
Evans, Charles L. (2008-08-15)
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago McLean County Chamber of Commerce, Bloomington, Illinois
Speech , Paper 19

Report
Regional heterogeneity and the refinancing channel of monetary policy
Beraja, Martin; Hurst, Erik; Fuster, Andreas; Vavra, Joseph (2015-06-01)
We argue that the time-varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing. Using detailed loan-level data, we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending responses to interest rate cuts but that these effects vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth. We then build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing with both mortgage borrowers and lenders and use it to explore the aggregate implications for monetary policy ...
Staff Reports , Paper 731

Discussion Paper
Ten years later – Did QE work?
Zimmermann, Thomas; Luck, Stephan (2019-05-08)
By November 2008, the Global Financial Crisis, which originated in the residential housing market and the shadow banking system, had begun to turn into a major recession, spurring the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to initiate what we now refer to as quantitative easing (QE). In this blog post, we draw upon the empirical findings of post-crisis academic research's including our own work's to shed light on the question: Did QE work?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190508

Report
The Market Events of Mid-September 2019
Cipriani, Marco; La Spada, Gabriele; Afonso, Gara; Kovner, Anna; Martin, Antoine; Copeland, Adam (2020-03-01)
This paper studies the mid-September 2019 stress in U.S. money markets: On September 16 and 17, unsecured and secured funding rates spiked up and, on September 17, the effective federal funds rate broke the ceiling of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) target range. We highlight two factors that may have contributed to these events. First, reserves may have become scarce for at least some depository institutions, in the sense that these institutions’ reserve holdings may have been close to, or lower than, their desired level. Moreover, frictions in the interbank market may have ...
Staff Reports , Paper 918

Speech
Financial Stability and Monetary Policy in a Low-Interest-Rate Environment
Mester, Loretta J. (2021-06-22)
I thank Kasper Roszbach and the Norges Bank for inviting me to present at this workshop on low-interest-rate and unconventional monetary policy. I applaud the Norges Bank for spurring research on this topic. In a period of less than two decades, the world has experienced two historically deep negative shocks to the global economy and financial system. While their causes were different, the global financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis each necessitated the intervention of central banks in ways not contemplated in earlier decades. Lessons from the actions taken during the ...
Speech

Working Paper
Is It Time to Reassess the Focal Role of Core PCE Inflation?
Verbrugge, Randal (2021-05-18)
In this paper, I review the history of “core” PCE inflation and its rationale: remove volatile items with transitory shocks to better highlight the trend in inflation. Structural changes in the inflation process imply that, on a “reducing volatility” basis, the list of items excluded from the “core” inflation basket (aside from gasoline) is far from optimal. This is true whether one assesses volatility on the basis of a weighted component monthly, or an index monthly, or a 12-month index, or a 5-year index. In addition, I demonstrate other deficiencies of exclusion indexes. ...
Working Papers , Paper 202110

Working Paper
A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-01-30)
Deciding to undertake a series of tightening actions present unique challenges for Federal Reserve policymakers. These challenges are both political and economic. Using a variety of economic and financial market metrics, this article examines how the economy and financial markets evolved in response to the five tightening episodes enacted by the FOMC since 1983. The primary aim is to compare the most-recent episode, from December 2015 to December 2018, with the previous four episodes. The findings in this article indicate that the current episode bears some resemblance to previous Fed ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-003

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis
Caldara, Dario; Gagnon, Etienne; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Neely, Christopher J. (2020-11-02)
We review macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Working Papers , Paper 2020-026

Discussion Paper
Why Pay Interest on Required Reserve Balances?
Lipscomb, Laura; Wiggins, Heather; Martin, Antoine (2017-09-25)
The Federal Reserve has paid interest on reserves held by banks in their Fed accounts since 2008. Why should it do so? Here, we describe some benefits of paying interest on required reserve balances. Since forcing banks to hold unremunerated reserves would be akin to levying a tax on them, paying interest on these balances is a way to eliminate or greatly reduce that tax and its negative effects.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170925

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