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Working Paper
Small and orthodox fiscal multipliers at the zero lower bound
Waki, Yuichiro; Korber, Lena Mareen; Braun, R. Anton (2013-12-01)
Does fiscal policy have large and qualitatively different effects on the economy when the nominal interest rate is zero? An emerging consensus in the New Keynesian literature is that the answer is yes. New evidence provided here suggests that the answer is often no. For a broad range of empirically relevant parameterizations of the Rotemberg model of costly price adjustment, the government purchase multiplier is about one or less, and the response of hours to a tax cut is either negative or close to zero.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-13

Interest rate volatility contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2022
Frame, W. Scott; McCormick, Matthew (2023-04-04)
The Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy in 2022, responding to high and persistent inflation. The resulting borrowing cost increase for households and firms was generally anticipated. However, fixed-rate mortgage interest rates were especially sensitive to the policy regime change.
Dallas Fed Economics

Speech
The U. S. economy: an optimistic outlook, but with some important risks: remarks at the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast, Boston, Massachusetts, April 13, 2018
Rosengren, Eric S. (2018-04-13)
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that his own economic forecast and the forecasts of his colleagues on the Fed's policy committee are "quite positive" ? citing fairly strong economic growth, job creation, falling unemployment, and inflation rising close to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. But Rosengren detailed both short-run and longer-run risks to that positive outlook.
Speech , Paper 131

Working Paper
Bargaining Power and Outside Options in the Interbank Lending Market
Abbassi, Puriya; Bräuning, Falk; Schulze, Niels (2020-06-01)
We study the role of bargaining power and outside options with respect to the pricing of over-the-counter interbank loans using a bilateral Nash bargaining model, and we test the model predictions with detailed transaction-level data from the euro-area interbank market. We find that lender banks with greater bargaining power over their borrowers charge higher interest rates, while the lack of alternative investment opportunities for lenders lowers bilateral interest rates. Moreover, we find that when lenders that are not eligible to earn interest on excess reserves (IOER) lend funds to ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-10

Speech
Restoring Balance
Williams, John C. (2022-02-18)
Remarks at New Jersey City University (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Birinci, Serdar; Karahan, Fatih; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt (2022-08)
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the role of worker flows in inflation dynamics and monetary policy. Motivated by our empirical finding that the historical negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the employer-to-employer (EE) transition rate up to the Great Recession disappeared during the recovery, we use the model to quantify the effect of EE transitions on inflation in this period. We find that the four-quarter inflation rate would have been 0.6 percentage points higher ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-016

Speech
The macroprudential implications of the 1990s Japanese financial crisis: remarks at the 5th Annual Macroprudential Conference, Eltville, Germany, June 21, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-06-21)
The Japanese financial crisis of the late 1990s had significant implications for both the Japanese and global economies. Effective use of macroprudential tools ? that is, banking regulations aimed at mitigating financial-system risk ? could have lessened the crisis in Japan. Unfortunately, it wasn't until the financial crisis of 2008 that countries began to work on improving macroprudential policies. Bank stress tests and the use of a countercyclical capital buffer (or CCyB) are two macroprudential tools that emerged from the financial crisis which could have reduced the severity of the ...
Speech , Paper 145

Journal Article
Opinion: Unique Challenges in the Housing Market
Athreya, Kartik B. (2023-01)
The Fed's monetary tightening over the past year has had an immediate effect on the housing market. The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage more than doubled from about 3 percent at the end of 2021 to around 7 percent by the fall of 2022. Higher mortgage rates — so long as inflation is not expected to stay high — raise the real cost of borrowing to buy a new home, so it is no surprise that new home sales declined throughout 2022. But if the Fed didn't act to bring inflation down, we could expect lenders to charge high rates simply to break even in real terms. The ...
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 36

Working Paper
The Response of Stock Market Volatility to Futures-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks
Gospodinov, Nikolay; Jamali, Ibrahim (2014-08-01)
In this paper, we investigate the dynamic response of stock market volatility to changes in monetary policy. Using a vector autoregressive model, our findings reveal a significant and asymmetric response of stock returns and volatility to monetary policy shocks. Although the increase in the volatility risk premium, futures-trading volume, and leverage appear to contribute to a short-term increase in volatility, the longer-term dynamics of volatility are dominated by monetary policy's effect on fundamentals. The estimation results from a bivariate VAR-GARCH model suggest that the Fed does not ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-14

Speech
The Economy and Monetary Policy at the Global Interdependence Center, Sarasota, FL
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-02-19)
I thank David Kotok and his colleagues at the Global Interdependence Center for giving me the opportunity to speak with you this morning about economic developments and monetary policy. I am very happy to be here ? and not just because I left single?digit temperatures in Cleveland. No, it?s because at each GIC program I?ve attended over the years ? and there have been many ? I?ve always walked away with some new insight or perspective with which to view the economy and policy. The GIC?s Central Banking Series is an important forum for discussing economic matters of global interest, and I am ...
Speech , Paper 68

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