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Briefing
Monetary Policy across Space and Time
Liu, Laura; Matthes, Christian; Petrova, Katerina; Romero, Jessica Sackett (2019-08)
Many major macroeconomic events have occurred across multiple countries. This Economic Brief looks at similarities and differences among the euro area, the United Kingdom, and the United States and finds that macroeconomic variables tend to become more interconnected during periods of financial distress. Movements in monetary policy are highly correlated across all three regions. In addition, inflation and unemployment become less responsive to monetary policy shocks over time.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue August

Speech
U.S. Economic Outlook
Moskow, Michael H. (2007-03-07)
Remarks by Michael H. Moskow President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Jewish United Fund Luncheon - The Standard Club - 320 S. Plymouth Ct. Chicago, IL. March 7, 2007.
Speech , Paper 9

Discussion Paper
Drivers of Inflation: The New York Fed DSGE Model’s Perspective
Del Negro, Marco; Gleich, Aidan; Goyal, Shlok; Johnson, Alissa; Tambalotti, Andrea (2022-03-01)
After a sharp decline in the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation rebounded in the second half of 2020 and surged through 2021. This post analyzes the drivers of these developments through the lens of the New York Fed DSGE model. Its main finding is that the recent rise in inflation is mostly accounted for by a large cost-push shock that occurred in the second quarter of 2021 and whose inflationary effects persist today. Based on the model’s reading of historical data, this shock is expected to fade gradually over the course of 2022, returning quarterly inflation to close to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220301

Speech
Welcome Remarks: Neuroeconomics and Financial Decision Making: Foundations and Applications in New Domains Symposium
Harker, Patrick T. (2019-08-06)
President Patrick T. Harker delivered opening remarks at the Philadelphia Fed?s Neuroeconomics and Financial Decision Making symposium. The event explored the emerging field of neuroeconomics and its effects and applications, from individuals? financial decision making to macroeconomics
Speech , Paper 170

Report
Demographic origins of the startup deficit
Karahan, Fatih; Sahin, Aysegul; Pugsley, Benjamin (2019-05-01)
We propose a simple explanation for the long-run decline in the U.S. startup rate. It originates from a slowdown in labor supply growth since the late 1970s, largely pre-determined by demographics. This channel can explain roughly 60 percent of the decline and why incumbent firm survival and average growth over the lifecycle have changed little. We show these results in a standard model of firm dynamics and test the mechanism using cross-state variation in labor supply growth. Finally, we show that a longer entry rate series imputed using historical establishment tabulations rises over the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 888

Briefing
How Important Are Asset Price Fluctuations for Business Investment?
Karabarbounis, Marios; Patel, Kushal (2023-02)
Previous recessions in the U.S. revealed to economists and policymakers that weak macroeconomic conditions may have been worsened by financial distress. Economists have theorized that this association is explained by a decline in physical asset prices that often precede recessions. When physical asset prices decline, firms pledge less-valuable assets to banks, which leads banks to reduce lending. Consequently, firms are not able to finance their investments, which reduces overall economic activity. In this article, we review more recent literature that may indicate that this mechanism is ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 05

Report
A unified approach to measuring u*
Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc; Sahin, Aysegul; Crump, Richard K. (2019-05-01)
This paper bridges the gap between two popular approaches to estimating the natural rate of unemployment, u*. The first approach uses detailed labor market indicators, such as labor market flows, cross-sectional data on unemployment and vacancies, or various measures of demographic changes. The second approach, which employs reduced-form models and DSGE models, relies on aggregate price and wage Phillips curve relationships. We combine the key features of these two approaches to estimate the natural rate of unemployment in the United States using both data on labor market flows and a ...
Staff Reports , Paper 889

Newsletter
The Recent Steepening of Phillips Curves
Hobijn, Bart; Miles, Russell; Royal, James; Zhang, Jing (2023-01)
The Phillips curve captures the empirical inverse relationship between the level of inflation and unemployment. The reciprocal of its slope, sometimes referred to as the “sacrifice ratio,” represents the increase in the unemployment rate associated with a 1 percentage point reduction in the inflation rate. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we provide evidence that the Phillips curve has steepened in many industrialized countries since the start of the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. This suggests a lower sacrifice ratio now than before 2020.
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume No 475

Working Paper
Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis
Gourio, François; Messer, Todd; Siemer, Michael (2016-01-31)
Using an annual panel of U.S. states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real gross domestic product, productivity and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a ?missing generation? of firms affects productivity persistently.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-1

Speech
Social Learning for the Masses
Bullard, James B. (2023-02-04)
Speech

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