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Discussion Paper
How Does the Liquidity of New Treasury Securities Evolve?
Fleming, Michael J. (2020-08-26)
In a recent Liberty Street Economics post, we showed that the newly reintroduced 20-year bond trades less than other on-the-run Treasury securities and has similar liquidity to that of the more interest‑rate‑sensitive 30-year bond. Is it common for newly introduced securities to trade less and with higher transaction costs, and how does security trading behavior change over time? In this post, we look back at how liquidity evolved for earlier reintroductions of Treasury securities so as to gain insight into how liquidity might evolve for the new 20-year bond.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200826

Report
Banking globalization, transmission, and monetary policy autonomy
Goldberg, Linda S. (2013-09-01)
International financial linkages, particularly through global bank flows, generate important questions about the consequences for economic and financial stability, including the ability of countries to conduct autonomous monetary policy. I address the monetary autonomy issue in the context of the international policy trilemma: Countries seek three typically desirable but jointly unattainable objectives?stable exchange rates, free international capital mobility, and monetary policy autonomy oriented toward, and effective at, achieving domestic goals. I argue that global banking entails some ...
Staff Reports , Paper 640

Report
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds
Williams, John C.; Mertens, Thomas M.; Bok, Brandyn (2022-04-01)
This paper analyzes a new stylized fact: According to financial market prices, the correlation between uncertainty shocks, as measured by changes in the VIX, and changes in break-even inflation rates has declined and turned negative over the past quarter century. It rationalizes this uncertainty-inflation correlation within a standard New Keynesian model with a lower bound on interest rates combined with a decline in the natural rate of interest. With a lower natural rate, the likelihood of the lower bound binding increased and the effects of uncertainty on the economy became more pronounced. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1011

Discussion Paper
Ring-Fencing and “Financial Protectionism” in International Banking
Gupta, Arun; Goldberg, Linda S. (2013-01-09)
Some market watchers and academic researchers are concerned about a “Balkanization” of banking, owing to a sharp decline in cross-border international banking activity (see chart below), and an increased home bias of financial transactions. Meanwhile, policy and regulatory efforts are under consideration that may further induce banks to shift away from international activity, including ring-fencing of domestic banking operations, other forms of “financial protectionism,” and enhanced oversight and prudential measures.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130109

Discussion Paper
A New Perspective on Low Interest Rates
Giannoni, Marc; Del Negro, Marco; Tambalotti, Andrea; Giannone, Domenico (2018-02-05)
Interest rates in the United States have remained at historically low levels for many years. This series of posts explores the forces behind the persistence of low rates. We briefly discuss some of the explanations advanced in the academic literature, and propose an alternative hypothesis that centers on the premium associated with safe and liquid assets. Our argument, outlined in a paper we presented at the Brookings Conference on Economic Activity last March, suggests that the increase in this premium since the late 1990s has been a key driver of the decline in the real return on U.S. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180205

Working Paper
Liquidity Windfalls: The Consequences of Repo Rehypothecation
Infante, Sebastian (2015-03-30)
This paper presents a model of repo rehypothecation in which dealers intermediate funds and collateral between cash lenders (e.g., money market funds) and prime brokerage clients (e.g., hedge funds). Dealers take advantage of their position as intermediaries, setting different repo terms with each counterparty. In particular, the difference in haircuts represents a positive cash balance for the dealer that can be an important source of liquidity. The model shows that dealers with higher default risk are more exposed to runs by collateral providers than to runs by cash lenders, who are ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-22

Discussion Paper
Treasury Market Liquidity and the Federal Reserve during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Fleming, Michael J. (2020-05-29)
Many of the actions taken by the Federal Reserve during the COVID-19 pandemic are intended to address a deterioration of market functioning. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced purchases of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), in particular, “to support the smooth functioning of markets” in those securities. Last month, we showed in this post how one metric of functioning for the Treasury market, market illiquidity, jumped to unusually high levels in March amid massive uncertainty about the economic effects of the pandemic. In this post, we ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200529a

Discussion Paper
A DSGE Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates
Tambalotti, Andrea; Giannoni, Marc; Gupta, Abhi; Giannone, Domenico; Li, Pearl; Del Negro, Marco (2018-02-07)
The preceding two posts in this series documented that interest rates on safe and liquid assets, such as U.S. Treasury securities, have declined significantly in the past twenty years. Of course, short-term interest rates in the United States are under the control of the Federal Reserve, at least in nominal terms. So it is legitimate to ask, To what extent is this decline driven by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy? This post addresses this question by coupling the results presented in the previous post with those obtained from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180207

Speech
Panel Remarks: Supervisory and Regulatory Action to Support the Economy and Protect Consumers
Stiroh, Kevin J. (2020-04-23)
Panel Remarks at The Fed and Main Street during the Coronavirus Pandemic, WebEx event, April 23, 2020.
Speech

A Look at the Fed’s Emergency Lending Programs
Neely, Christopher J. (2020-12-22)
The Federal Reserve launched an alphabet soup of programs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
On the Economy

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