Search Results
Working Paper
QE: when and how should the Fed exit?
The essence of Quantitative Easing (QE) is to reduce the costs of private borrowing through large-scale purchases of privately issue debts, instead of public debts (Ben Bernanke, 2009). Notwithstanding the effectiveness of this highly unconventional monetary policy in reviving private investment and the economy, it is time to think about the likely impacts of the unwinding of QE (or the reversed private-asset purchases) on the economy. In a standard economic model, if monetary injections can increase aggregate output and employment, then the reversed action will likely undo such effects. ...
Speech
Comments on “A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed’s Balance Sheet”: remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City
Remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.
Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
This paper argues that one cannot precisely estimate the persistence of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) effects, especially with short samples and few observations. To make this point, we illustrate that the most influential model on the topic exhibits structural instability, and sensitivity to specification and outliers that render the conclusions unreliable. Restricted models that respect more plausible asset return predictability are more stable and imply that UMP shocks were persistent. Estimates of the dynamic effects of shocks should respect the limited predictability in asset ...
Speech
The research-policy nexus: ZLB, JMCB and FOMC: remarks at the Conference Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Remarks at the Conference Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Working Paper
Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound : Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit
We simulate the FRB/US model and a number of statistical models to quantify some of the risks stemming from the effective lower bound (ELB) on the federal funds rate and to assess the efficacy of adjustments to the federal funds rate target, balance sheet policies, and forward guidance to provide monetary policy accommodation in the event of a recession. Over the next decade, our simulations imply a roughly 20 to 50 percent probability that the federal funds rate will be constrained by the ELB at some point. We also find that forward guidance and balance sheet polices of the kinds used in ...
Speech
Interest rate control during normalization
Remarks at the SIFMA Conference on Securities Financing Transactions, New York City.
Working Paper
Term Structure Modeling with Supply Factors and the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase Programs
This paper estimates an arbitrage-free term structure model with both observable yield factors and Treasury and Agency MBS supply factors, and uses it to evaluate the term premium effects of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase programs. Our estimates show that the first and the second large-scale asset purchase programs and the maturity extension program jointly reduced the 10-year Treasury yield by about 100 basis points.
Journal Article
Has the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations Changed in the United States during the Past Decade?
The financial crisis and Great Recession led to dramatic shifts in U.S. monetary policy over the past decade, with potential implications for inflation expectations. Prior to the crisis, inflation expectations were well anchored. But during the crisis and recovery, the Federal Reserve turned to new policies such as large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs). In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee adopted a formal inflation target in 2012, with the stated goal of keeping longer-term inflation expectations stable. Did inflation expectations remain anchored during this period of unconventional ...
Speech
The Federal Reserve's experience purchasing and reinvesting agency MBS: remarks at the Bank of England, London
Remarks at the Bank of England, London.
Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
The weight of the evidence indicates that unconventional monetary policy (UMP) shocks had persistent effects on yields. To make this point, this paper illustrates that the most influential SVAR model of UMP effects, which implies transient effects, exhibits structural instability, sensitivity to specification and single observations that render the conclusions unreliable. Restricted SVAR models that limit asset return predictability are more stable and imply that UMP shocks were persistent. This conclusion is consistent with evidence from micro studies, surveys of professional forecasters, ...