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Working Paper
Impact of first-birth career interruption on earnings: evidence from administrative data
Walker, Mary Beth; Pitts, M. Melinda; Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2014-11-01)
This paper uses unique administrative data to expand the understanding of the role women's intermittency decisions play in the determination of their wages. We demonstrate that treating intermittency as exogenous significantly overstates its impact. The intermittency penalty also increases in the education level of the woman. The penalty for a woman with a high school degree with an average amount of intermittency during six years after giving birth to her first child is roughly half the penalty for a college graduate. We also demonstrate the value of using an index to capture multiple ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-23

Journal Article
Labor Market Conditions Have Eased, but Why? A State-Level View
Gascon, Charles S.; Martorana, Joseph (2024-02-22)
An analysis examines how changes in labor supply and labor demand contributed to loosening state and national job market conditions in 2023.
The Regional Economist

Report
Relative pay, productivity, and labor supply
Bracha, Anat (2016-10-01)
Relative pay ? earnings compared with the earnings of others doing a similar job, or compared with one?s earnings in the past ? affects how much individuals would like to work (labor supply) and their effort on the job; it therefore has implications for both employers and policy makers. A collection of recent studies shows that relative pay information, even when it is irrelevant, significantly affects labor supply and effort. This effect stems mainly from those who compare unfavorably, as essentially all studies find that awareness of earning less than others or less than in the past ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-2

Working Paper
Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom
Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt (2025-03-21)
Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, including increases in net worth, the deterioration of the labor market with higher job separations, the expansion of fiscal transfer programs, and higher mortality risk. We develop an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a frictional labor market to quantitatively study the interaction of these factors and decompose their contributions to the rise in retirements. We find that new ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-017

Journal Article
Decline in Number of Workers with “Some College” Is Boosting Healthcare Wage Inflation
Pollard, Emily (2023-12-20)
Compared with the pre-pandemic period, the labor force contains about 1.5 million fewer individuals who have some post-secondary schooling but less than a bachelor’s degree. As a result, vacancies for jobs that require a post-secondary certificate or an associate degree remain elevated, especially in health-related fields. These shortages have contributed to higher wages in the fast-growing healthcare field and are unlikely to resolve quickly.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
Health Insurance as an Income Stabilizer
Blascak, Nathan; Roll, Stephen; Grinstein-Weiss, Michal; Gallagher, Emily (2020-01-29)
We evaluate the effect of health insurance on the incidence of negative income shocks using the tax data and survey responses of nearly 14,000 low income households. Us-ing a regression discontinuity (RD) design and variation in the cost of nongroup pri-vate health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, we find that eligibility for sub-sidized Marketplace insurance is associated with a 16% and 9% decline in the rates of unexpected job loss and income loss, respectively. Effects are concentrated among households with past health costs and exist only for “unexpected” forms of earnings ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-05

Working Paper
Real Rates and Consumption Smoothing in a Low Interest Rate Environment: The Case of Japan
Lecznar, Jonathan; Lubik, Thomas A. (2017-05-18)
We study the dynamics of consumption, the real interest rate, and measures of labor input in Japan over the period from 1985-2014. We identify structural breaks in macroeconomic aggregates during the 1990s and associate them with the zero interest rate policy pursued by the Bank of Japan and the surprise increase in the consumption tax rate in April 1997. Formal estimation using the Generalized Methods of Moments shows that the mid-1990s are characterized by breaks in the structural parameters governing household consumption and labor supply decisions. Specifically, following the tax hike and ...
Working Paper , Paper 17-8

Potential Jobs Impacted by Covid-19
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Faberman, R. Jason; Aaronson, Daniel (2020-04-01)
In this blog, we conduct an exercise to determine the potential consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on near-term labor market outcomes. This is not a forecast, but an attempt to provide some discipline around potential bounds of the number of jobs impacted by the crisis. We estimate that between nine and 26 million jobs are potentially affected,1 with a best guess of around 15 million. If these jobs are lost, the June unemployment rate could reach between 14% and 18%, with a best guess of around 15%.
Midwest Economy Blog

Working Paper
Consumption and Hours in the United States and Europe
Fang, Lei; Yang, Fang (2022-09-08)
We document large differences between the United States and Europe in allocations of expenditures and time for both market and home activities. Using a life-cycle model with home production and endogenous retirement, we find that the cross-country differences in consumption tax, social security system, income tax and TFP together can account for 68-95 percent of the cross-country variations and more than half of the average differences between Europe and the United States in aggregate hours and expenditures. These factors can also account well for the cross-country differences in allocations ...
Working Papers , Paper 2216

Working Paper
The Cross-Section of Labor Leverage and Equity Returns
Donangelo, Andres; Gourio, François; Kehrig, Matthias; Palacios, Miguel (2017-09-04)
Using a standard production model, we demonstrate theoretically that, even if labor is fully flexible, it generates a form of operating leverage if (a) wages are smoother than productivity and (b) the capital-labor elasticity of substitution is strictly less than one. Our model supports using labor share?the ratio of labor expenses to value added?as a proxy for labor leverage. We show evidence for conditions (a) and (b), and we demonstrate the economic significance of labor leverage: High labor-share firms have operating profits that are more sensitive to shocks, and they have higher expected ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-22

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