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Journal Article
Productivity During and Since the Pandemic
Fernald, John G.; Li, Huiyu; Meisenbacher, Brigid C.; Yalcin, Aren S. (2024-11-25)
U.S. labor productivity initially surged in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the massive economic upheaval. As the economy recovered, the level of productivity retreated to its slow pre-pandemic trend. As of mid-2024, it remained close to but just above that trend. The surge and retreat in productivity follows the pre-pandemic cyclical relationship in which U.S. productivity rises temporarily in recessions. This example highlights the need to look through temporary cyclical effects when trying to infer longer-run trends.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 31 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Job creation and destruction
Loungani, Prakash; Trehan, Bharat (1997)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Inter-industry productivity trends: unbalanced growth or unmeasured growth?
Schmidt, Ronald H. (1993)
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 93-08

Working Paper
Cyclically-adjusted measures of structural trend breaks: an application to productivity trends in the 1990s
Cooper, Paul N.; Filardo, Andrew J. (1996)
This paper compares several linear trend break models of labor productivity. One empirical problem that arises when estimating trends in macroeconomic data is the influence of cyclical behavior on tests of trend breaks. Using various methods to correct for cyclical influences, this paper finds that a simple linear trend model with a small number of breaks aptly characterizes aggregate productivity. Moreover, this paper confirms previous research that has found that the aggregate productivity trend has not steepened in the 1990s. Econometrically, this paper shows the benefits of using ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 96-14

Report
Structural change in U.S. wage determination
Rissmiller, Donald; Rich, Robert W. (2001)
This paper provides an empirical investigation into the determinants and stability of the aggregate wage inflation process in the United States over the 1967-2000 period. Using compensation per hour as the measure of wages, we specify a Phillips curve model that links wage growth to its past values as well as to the unemployment rate, price inflation, labor productivity growth, and an additional set of labor market variables. The results do not reject the hypothesis that real wages and labor productivity move proportionally in the long run. More important, endogenous structural break tests ...
Staff Reports , Paper 117

Working Paper
Intangible capital and economic growth
Sichel, Daniel E.; Hulten, Charles R.; Corrado, Carol (2006)
Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change, but our estimates suggest that as much as $800 billion is still excluded from U.S. published data (as of 2003), and that this leads to the exclusion of more than $3 trillion of business intangible capital stock. To assess the importance of this omission, we add intangible capital to the standard sources-of-growth framework used by the BLS, and find that the inclusion of our list of intangible assets makes a significant difference in the observed patterns of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2006-24

Journal Article
Is the United States losing its productivity advantage?
Amiti, Mary; Stiroh, Kevin J. (2007-09)
Strikingly high rates of labor productivity growth in China, India, and other emerging economies have prompted concerns that U.S. workers and firms are losing ground to their competitors in world markets. A closer look at the evidence, however, suggests that rapid foreign productivity growth will bring gains as well as losses to the U.S. economy. Some import-competing firms may be compelled to restructure or leave the market, but consumers will benefit from lower import prices and more import varieties, and U.S. exporters may gain access to cheaper intermediate products from abroad.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 13 , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Productivity gains: how permanent?
Jensen, Jeffrey L.; Bauer, Paul W.; Schweitzer, Mark E. (2001-09)
This Economic Commentary confirms that productivity growth has been unusually robust over the last few years and explores reasonable assumptions about the likely future pattern of productivity growth. These assumptions can generate substantially different productivity growth paths. Government forecasts, which guide the major tax and benefit programs, have been increased in recent years yet remain cautious.
Economic Commentary , Issue Sep

Working Paper
Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic
Mercan, Yusuf; Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; Karahan, Fatih (2020-08)
We study the positive and normative implications of labor market policies that counteract the economic fallout from containment measures during an epidemic. We incorporate a standard epidemiological model into an equilibrium search model of the labor market to compare unemployment insurance (UI) expansions and payroll subsidies. In isolation, payroll subsidies that preserve match capital and enable a swift economic recovery are preferred over a cost-equivalent UI expansion. When considered jointly, however, a cost-equivalent optimal mix allocates 20 percent of the budget to payroll subsidies ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-024

Discussion Paper
Estimating GSP and labor productivity by state
Bauer, Paul W.; Lee, Yoonsoo (2006-03)
In gauging the health of state economies, arguably the two most important series to track are employment and output. While employment by state is available about three weeks after the end of a month, data on output, as measured by Gross State Product (GSP), are only available annually and with a significant lag. This Policy Discussion Paper details how more current estimates of GSP can be generated using U.S. Gross Domestic Product and personal income along with individual states personal income. A straightforward share approach yields reasonable GSP estimates, but a more sophisticated ...
Policy Discussion Papers , Issue Mar

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